Value betting using betfair

[Euler]

If betting you are looking for value, a difference between true odds and the actualy odds. When trading you are effectively buying and selling volatility. So that underlying value doesn't matter than much.

[hecojef928]

Maybe its just terminology & "value" means different things to different people depending on context...

If you are able to make a profit from the volatility within the market I really wouldn't be too concerned with whether you were trading at "value" positions.. The main point is that you have extracted "value" from the market due to volatility...If trading volatility the main concerns are entry & exit points, e.g. did I have a good entry point & when / how should I get out.

Good luck with you scalping journey, it's a lot harder than some folk make it look!

Thanks! I'm on the same page as you, and I'm curious about what others think. It's just that I come across a lot of people asking about measurements, quantifying, and whether it's genuine value, and it throws me off track.

[hecojef928]

If betting you are looking for value, a difference between true odds and the actualy odds. When trading you are effectively buying and selling volatility. So that underlying value doesn't matter than much.

Thank you!

[Michael5482]

How do you know if you're trading at value, and does it actually make a difference? So, in the quick world of scalping or trading volatility, does value truly matter?

Well what does your P&L say?

It can answer all these questions and much more

I'm stuck in this loop of thoughts. If my equity curve is going up, am I really trading at value? And if it's heading down, does that mean I've been missing the mark on trading at value? How do you know for certain?

Calculate Total Back Bets - Total Lay Bets or vice versa depending if you back or lay 1st take off commission and it'll give you a a number. Sum it for every market it'll give you your total turnover, then can workout your average turnover per market, average P&L per market and so on. Maybe create two P&L's one when you follow your plan and another where you don't.

Does not following you plan create a loss, do you loose at certain tracks/games, times of day, types of race/games, are you over staking at certain times ? You can get all that info easily with a bit of good house keeping.

Like Kai said your P&L tells you a hell of a lot so slice it, dice it and interrogate it.

[Kai]

It's just that I come across a lot of people asking about measurements, quantifying, and whether it's genuine value, and it throws me off track.

Because different people deploy different strategies so they view and understand the market from different angles. And that's good

I wouldn't overthink it. If they are profitable it basically means they understand their market, or parts of it. So the same applies to you, if that's what your P&L is telling you.

I just think it's infinitely better to reach these conclusions on your own organically, because then you comprehend the answer rather than just knowing it.

Even when others have quantified things very well above.

[hecojef928]

It's just that I come across a lot of people asking about measurements, quantifying, and whether it's genuine value, and it throws me off track.

Because different people deploy different strategies so they view and understand the market from different angles. And that's good

I wouldn't overthink it. If they are profitable it basically means they understand their market, or parts of it. So the same applies to you, if that's what your P&L is telling you.

I just think it's infinitely better to reach these conclusions on your own organically, because then you understand the answer instead of taking others' word for it.

Even when others have quantified things very well above.

Appreciate it, Kai. Just a bit of self-doubt about being on the right track!

Thanks, @Michael5482. I'll certainly delve deeper into this aspect within my strategies.

[Michael5482]

It's just that I come across a lot of people asking about measurements, quantifying, and whether it's genuine value, and it throws me off track.

Because different people deploy different strategies so they view and understand the market from different angles. And that's good

I wouldn't overthink it. If they are profitable it basically means they understand their market, or parts of it. So the same applies to you, if that's what your P&L is telling you.

I just think it's infinitely better to reach these conclusions on your own organically, because then you comprehend the answer rather than just knowing it.

Even when others have quantified things very well above.

That's about it in a nutshell, there's no one size fit's type solution. Everyone has there own story, trading style, advice etc Someone can ask a question, get 4 different answer and they all be valid.

It's like a jigsaw puzzle you start with pieces all over the place and the advice or lessons learnt are the pieces and you have to take the pieces (advice) and lessons and build the jigsaw but give the same information to 10 different people, they'll build it 10 different ways finishing at different times. There's absolutely nothing wrong with this at all it just shows were all different.

I suppose this is why the markets move, everyone is in there building their own jigsaw.

Not aimed at hecojef928 just an overall personal observation from the posts.

[Kai]

Yup, took me a few years to quantify my own trading, but was never really a quant anyway. Ironically, what helped me was trying to explain it to others!

But yeah, still quite happy to sometimes take a shit value price, it's not like I have to hold onto it forever. It may hold some value in the short term as well.

[hecojef928]

It's just that I come across a lot of people asking about measurements, quantifying, and whether it's genuine value, and it throws me off track.

Because different people deploy different strategies so they view and understand the market from different angles. And that's good

I wouldn't overthink it. If they are profitable it basically means they understand their market, or parts of it. So the same applies to you, if that's what your P&L is telling you.

I just think it's infinitely better to reach these conclusions on your own organically, because then you comprehend the answer rather than just knowing it.

Even when others have quantified things very well above.

That's about it in a nutshell, there's no one size fit's type solution. Everyone has there own story, trading style, advice etc Someone can ask a question, get 4 different answer and they all be valid.

It's like a jigsaw puzzle you start with pieces all over the place and the advice or lessons learnt are the pieces and you have to take the pieces (advice) and lessons and build the jigsaw but give the same information to 10 different people, they'll build it 10 different ways finishing at different times. There's absolutely nothing wrong with this at all it just shows were all different.

I suppose this is why the markets move, everyone is in there building their own jigsaw.

Not aimed at hecojef928 just an overall personal observation from the posts. @kai

It's great to get a variety of perspectives! Lately, I've found myself questioning my approach when I hear discussions about the significance of value, realizing I'm not placing the same emphasis on it in my trading strategy. However, as you rightly pointed out, every trader has their own unique story, style, and advice, and that's quite reassuring!

[Euler]

It's just that I come across a lot of people asking about measurements, quantifying, and whether it's genuine value, and it throws me off track.

Because different people deploy different strategies so they view and understand the market from different angles. And that's good

I wouldn't overthink it. If they are profitable it basically means they understand their market, or parts of it. So the same applies to you, if that's what your P&L is telling you.

I just think it's infinitely better to reach these conclusions on your own organically, because then you comprehend the answer rather than just knowing it.

Even when others have quantified things very well above.

That's about it in a nutshell, there's no one size fit's type solution. Everyone has there own story, trading style, advice etc Someone can ask a question, get 4 different answer and they all be valid.

It's like a jigsaw puzzle you start with pieces all over the place and the advice or lessons learnt are the pieces and you have to take the pieces (advice) and lessons and build the jigsaw but give the same information to 10 different people, they'll build it 10 different ways finishing at different times. There's absolutely nothing wrong with this at all it just shows were all different.

I suppose this is why the markets move, everyone is in there building their own jigsaw.

Not aimed at hecojef928 just an overall personal observation from the posts.

These observations are spot on.