Gold

[andyfuller]

Define 'long term trend'. You can't expect to get away with such imprecise language when talking to a trend follower!

My mistake, didn't realise I had cut off the time axis. Have edited the above post and put in new images with the time axis.

[andyfuller]

I was writing as someone with an interest in the markets, not as a trend follower. Whether a trend follower would still be long on gold depends on their entry and exit criteria. If they were trading the daily chart, then they'd probably have exited by now, but not necessarily if they were trading the monthly chart...

Remember that trend following doesn't predict; it merely reacts.

Remember also that there are trends within trends within trends!

I assumed you were talking from your usual trend following view point but obviously not, more an observation.

Surely by reacting to a trend you are predicting or else how do you open a position? As when you open a position are you not saying this is going to go up or go down?

From your trending view point what would you do at the moment? Long, Short or do nothing?

[Iron]

From a trend following perspective, what you do right now depends on your entry and exit criteria and the timeframe you're trading...

Let's say I'm trading the daily timeframe. I go short at the open of the next day's trading when the market closes a day below the 35 and 95 period moving averages. I close my trade when the market closes above the 35 MA. Vice versa for going long.

According to the attached chart, I should be going short...

Jeff

My mistake, didn't realise I had cut off the time axis. Have edited the above post and put in new images with the time axis.

[Iron]

...and, according to those same randomly selected criteria, I'd be about to exit the market if I were trading the weekly chart (unless it finishes the week above the 35 MA line)...

Jeff

[andyfuller]

From your trending view point what would you do at the moment? Long, Short or do nothing?

From a trend following perspective, what you do right now depends on your entry and exit criteria and the timeframe you're trading...

I was meaning what would you do now based on the market, so if you currently are long are you still holding? Are you looking at buying the dips (Super Frank?)? Are you unsure what is going to happen and as such don't have a view either long or short. Basically what is your opinion of the market in terms of what is it going to do. Just trying to spark a bit of debate as I find it a good way to learn as it makes you look at things from a different view point.

So, from what you have said you would be short, correct?

According to the attached chart, I should be going short...

I'd be about to exit the market if I were trading the weekly chart

[Iron]

Putting my trend follower hat off for a minute, if I had a gun to my head and had to take a position in the market, I'd go short on the daily chart, as there seems to be strong downward momentum (and no, I'm not going to attempt to define momentum! ).

Jeff

[Iron]

How about you Andy?

If that were a Betfair chart, what would you do?

Jeff

[andyfuller]

If it were a Betfair chart I would be looking at the ladder lol

I said earlier I would be buying now. From the chart view point I think being long has a higher probabilty of a successful outcome than being short, I would be putting in a stop around 1530 based off the low from the end of September of 1540, around 1470 looks like it could provide a good resistance level having held from around mid-april to end of July at that level. But I would guess having a stop that far off would be too wide?

(Those weren't my charts btw, I screen grabbed them off the IGIndex weekly webinar).

I sitll need to get some charting, tried the one you recommended on the thread about it and couldn't get them to work and nor could I on Ninja Trader

So reckon I will just open an account with IG and use their charts as from what I have seen of them I quite like them. At this stage I don't really care one bit if I call it wrong, tbh I would sooner be wrong as you tend to learn more from your mistakes I find. But I do find it good to play around and try things out and give views as I find you get more involved in it and learn more than just passively looking at the charts.

Lets see who turns out to be correct, me long or you short

[Iron]

If it were a Betfair chart I would be looking at the ladder lol

To clarify, do you not use the Bet Angel generated charts as well?

I still need to get some charting,

Try this: http://www.igindex.co.uk/spread-betting ... nding.html

AFAIK, it's FOC if you place a single trade per month.

Lets see who turns out to be correct, me long or you short

Remember that we could both be right and both lose money, if the market decides to enter a range and take out our stops out before we're in the green!

I once read that, about 80% of the time, markets are basically going nowhere!

Jeff

[andyfuller]

I do have Betfair Style charts open on my screen and a 2second candle chart for the first 3 in the market.

I have looked at the IG stuff, it is free as long as you place two orders a month, so just a quick buy and sell and job done. Just got to get round to actually opening the account.

If you wait long enough we will both be right from the long/short view point but I can't be both right and wrong from what I have proposed as as you say I could be stopped out, to me if that happens even if it goes up long term I was not right as I called my trade incorrectly.

[Iron]

“There are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose. Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future, when the odds will be running against you. You can also lose a good bet, no matter how sound the underlying proposition, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.”

Larry Hite (A trend following market wizard - And not the only one, btw!)

If your bet is a good bet but you lose, you haven't called your trade incorrectly...

Jeff

I could be stopped out, to me if that happens even if it goes up long term I was not right as I called my trade incorrectly.

[andyfuller]

I don't agree, you most have got something incorrect or you would have made on the trade not lost. So in the case above you were saying I could be stopped out before the trade went positive, that means to me that I called the entry incorrect on the trade so it was a bad trade. I may have got the move correct over a longer time frame but I would have misjudged my entry point. To me that is a bad incorrect trade.

[andyfuller]

“....You can also lose a good bet, no matter how sound the underlying proposition, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.”

I agree with what he is saying, it is the same on Betfair, as long as you make value bets and have a big enough bank you will come out on top as the probabilities are in your favour. But that isn't the same as calling a trade correctly. You must make money to call a trade correctly.

[Iron]

You most have got something incorrect or you would have made on the trade not lost.

Please tell me you're pulling my leg! With greatest respect, that's the kind of comment I'd expect from a newbie!

Every day on Betfair, you must have losing trades. So, I'd be willing to bet, does Peter. A losing trade doesn't mean you did anything wrong - it's a reflection of the uncertain world we live in!

I doubt you'll find a successful trader in the world with a 100% strike rate!

Jeff

[Iron]

We're getting into semantic territory, but if you've traded in accordance with a long-term edge, you've made the correct call in my book, whether the trade made or lost you money...

Jeff

I agree with what he is saying, it is the same on Betfair, as long as you make value bets and have a big enough bank you will come out on top as the probabilities are in your favour. But that isn't the same as calling a trade correctly. You must make money to call a trade correctly.