Back the Likely Winner Automation Bot for Horse Racing

[novicestakes]

Im running a similar bot with good success - it doesnt work well on short races, so look for races over 1m.

The beauty kind of rule is that it only fires when everything aligns, AND if theres a close running second horse, it would often back 3rd or 4th fave un running, so still a safe-ish bet.

Fallers at the last fence never helps though!

[jimibt]

Dallas - One further little query. If using the conditions tab for the lay bet example that you just gave, how would one set about placing a condition that stated that the Current target selection for the lay's back odds had never traded at a given price, i.e. that the back odds had never gone below 5.5 for example??

btw - when running the lay rule that you suggested (in test), it all worked fine, however, there was a scary moment in the last race at 16:25 Fontwell Park, when the chosen selection (Surf In September) was actually selected as the lay and came a close 2nd in the race. Shame the betfair api doesn't record the ACTUAL position of the runner in real time

[edit] -ditto with the 16:40 Southwell. Chosen lay selection was Mondo Cane; it too came 2nd. I wonder if that's not actually a bad thing IF there was a way to determine for sure that the bet happened as late as possible after the 1.20 condition... hmmm (thinking)

[Dallas]

Dallas - One further little query. If using the conditions tab for the lay bet example that you just gave, how would one set about placing a condition that stated that the Current target selection for the lay's back odds had never traded at a given price, i.e. that the back odds had never gone below 5.5 for example??

btw - when running the lay rule that you suggested (in test), it all worked fine, however, there was a scary moment in the last race at 16:25 Fontwell Park, when the chosen selection (Surf In September) was actually selected as the lay and came a close 2nd in the race. Shame the betfair api doesn't record the ACTUAL position of the runner in real time

[edit] -ditto with the 16:40 Southwell. Chosen lay selection was Mondo Cane; it too came 2nd. I wonder if that's not actually a bad thing IF there was a way to determine for sure that the bet happened as late as possible after the 1.20 condition... hmmm (thinking)

Its not currently possible to look to see if the price has never gone above or below X odds over a period of time but by adding several "Historic fixed odds conditions" you can ask it to look at the price now, 5 secs ago, 10 secs ago, 15 secs ago and so on, so its not full proof as the price may of passed in between these time slots but you ll know its never been past for any length of time (or longer than the gaps you have set).

You could choose the runner by order of fav instead of applying it to "ANY" selection on the general tab you could select to lay just the 2nd, 3rd or 4th fav (whos odds happen to be between 5.0-30.0 while the fav is below 1.25) or any combination of them

[jimibt]

Hi Dallas, yes I did actually try the Relative Historic odds exactly as you describe, but as you rightly mention, the odds could have nipped in/out of a lower range between the timebands being queried. I guess your suggestion of 2nd/3rd fave etc MAY yield a starting point, tho of course as we all know, the market can churn pretty fast and thus the 3rd fave could be out at odds of 12 while winding in to become the eventual winner...

Oh why isn't this all a bit easier -lol

Thanks for the nod
jim

[Dallas]

Oh why isn't this all a bit easier -lol

Because then it would be no fun and we would all be bored and doing house work instead

[jimibt]

Oh why isn't this all a bit easier -lol

Because then it would be no fun and we would all be bored and doing house work instead

touche!!

[novicestakes]

There was I saying Ive been having success with this.. and lost a couple of hundred £ yesterday... all at Ayr...

First loss was two horses with VERY similar colours although one was nicely infront and onto win.. I wonder if there was confusion in the markets over the right horse!?

I lost 3 races yesterday, and all had been laid as in running outsiders at around 11.0 when fave was less than 1.3 - and still won.

Ive added some extra time based conditions to ensure the fave is remaining the fave and going onto win.

Having just 1 time based condition is not enough to make this work, at least 2 is required.

[Seaside Boy]

Thanks for all those comments - glad to see it can be done (and is!).

Can I just explore the time conditions element discussed previously.
How would those be set and how would they work?
I can see a few different scenarios (there must be more) and it's a matter of trying to eliminate the difficulties.

Would a lay bet only be triggered at the exact time the front runner traded at below 1.30 AND one of the other runners had a lay bet available between the set odds, or:

Would a lay bet be triggered AT ANY TIME after the front runner traded at below 1.30 and then when one of the other runners had a lay bet available between the set odds?

Also, would this Bot only place a lay bet on runners B, C, D, E etc, or is there a possibility it could place a lay bet on the front runner as well?

[Dallas]

The way it works is that each time Bet Angel refreshes the market (you should have this set to 200ms which is 5 times a sec) it retrives the latest price info from betfair, it then check this again all the conditions of your rule if any one of the conditions are not met then the bet wont trigger on this refresh.

If the rule type is a lay bet on ANY selection and your conditions state

Fav < 1.25
Fixed odds B, C, D, E, F G between 5.0-10.0
matched bets on selection = 0

Then the rule should be getting checked 5 times every second as soon as it see's the fav is below 1.25 it will look at horses B to G and any that are between the specified odds of 5 & 10 it will lay providing they have nt already had a matched bet.
It wont lay the fav because its not within that range or any of the other horse above 30.0, some races there might be all 6 horses between those prices so will lay all 6 other races there might only be the one or two runners at the moment the fav goes below 1.25 in which case only these will be layed

[novicestakes]

My own particular system only fired in about 40% of races yesterday. Due to the odds presented during the race some races just purely didnt meet the critieria in play.

Now a few people may say thats not good enough, i persoanlly think thats fine as the system is following the rules, if you start chasing for profit it will bite you as you are introducing more risk.

Play with the time conditions and also the upper and lower thresholds of the fave and also the lay range.

[Seaside Boy]

Dallas,

Thanks for your previous comprehensive note on setting up the Bot.
Having difficulty setting "ANY' at the three points as described, so I think I must be missing something here.
Can only see Choice of Selection by Name, Row Index or Position.

[Dallas]

Dallas,

Thanks for your previous comprehensive note on setting up the Bot.
Having difficulty setting "ANY' at the three points as described, so I think I must be missing something here.
Can only see Choice of Selection by Name, Row Index or Position.

If your missing ANY then it will be because of 1 of 2 reasons

1st make sure your using a version of Bet Angel of higher than 1.40 (latest version is 1.43.1), your version number is show in top left corner of your screen
viewtopic.php?f=46&t=11565

If your using this version or any above 1.40 then the only other reason will be your screen resolution, have a look at this thread and the image posted by Mikky and see if your looks like this and if so the way to resolve the screen resolution is included in that thread.
viewtopic.php?f=43&t=11669&start=20

[welshtrekker]

This bot works well but be vigilant regards greening at times.
A few times I had to decide if trading out at a small loss was needed, once it cost me profit but for a small loss instead of risking the lot.
I am yet to try a stop loss on the bot, mainly as too many times you can pull out at half your stake but then again, that is better than losing the lot.
Best results so far for me on this one.
Always a struggle that last few seconds: do I wait, should I trade out?
Often the latter and at slightly less profit but I know those last few seconds is where another runner takes the lead some times, so I find it best to green up.
Wondering if the settings need altering. Back at 1.2 when selection is at 1.25 not 1.35. Many times over the week, the fav pushes ahead and wins and it may not be the horse selected.

[Dallas]

Its probebly not advisable using a stop loss when backing at such short odds so late in the race, the likely hood of it being matched once triggering if is horse is going to be beat is very little where has it will be triggered and matched more often from a tempory bounce and you end up losing out on a profit as the horse goes on to win.

[welshtrekker]

Agree Dallas though I need to test as same the other way and trying to minimise losses, complete stake loss that is.
Trying a stop loss for a few races, and will report back here with results.
It should pull out at half the stake. If it happens a few times on horses that went on to win, will need a rethink.