ok, first day taking notes, heres what I wrote for the first few races. I know that it is mostly a description of what I saw, rather than an analysis of what is happening, I guess thats about my level of understanding at the moment. anyway here goes
Chester 13:45
first 2 horses in market have matched roughly the same amounts of money.
favorite drifted, resistance at 6 with 9 mins to go, bounced between 6 and 5.7 a couple of times, then came in to 5.3. 5.4 kept getting emptied and filled again, then pressure built up on the back side, price came in to 4.2 with 1 minute to go. If I traded I would have laid at 5.3 as 5.4 kept getting emptied and filled, I expected it to start drifting again,
Chester 14:15
from 12 mins till 5 min to go price came in fairly steadily, stopped at 2.12, drifted back out to 2.26 . I did an imaginary back bet at 2.24 with 4 mins to go as not much money was being taken at 2.26 and WOM was building on the back side, at which point market drifted again to 2.36 then came in fairly sharply to 2.04. Didnt notice any indicators for either move
On the verge of giving up
Goodwood 14:30
2 horses at roughly same price ~2.5
looked at BF graph, fav had been coming in slowly _ then drifted sharply, come in a bit then drifted a lot. Hit resistance at 2.6 and bounced down from there twice. with 5 mins to go it drifted to 2.6 for a third time went through it briefly, and bounced back down to 2.5. with 1 min 30 to go someone whacked 12K to back at 2.46 not sure if this was s spoof as it seemed to get moved down and some of it was matched, it forced the price down to 2.36
first 2 horses matched roughly same amount of money.
chester 14:45
Fav seemed to have been trading mostly at 2.70 -2.75 with a couple of up and down periods which both topped out at 2.9. After starting tho view the market it start to drift again out to 2.9 where someone dropped in a 15K back bet which dropped the price back to 2.75
2 horses at roughly same price ~2.5
looked at BF graph, fav had been coming in slowly _ then drifted sharply, come in a bit then drifted a lot. Hit resistance at 2.6 and bounced down from there twice. with 5 mins to go it drifted to 2.6 for a third time went through it briefly, and bounced back down to 2.5. with 1 min 30 to go someone whacked 12K to back at 2.46 not sure if this was s spoof as it seemed to get moved down and some of it was matched, it forced the price down to 2.36
first 2 horses matched roughly same amount of money.
chester 14:45
Fav seemed to have been trading mostly at 2.70 -2.75 with a couple of up and down periods which both topped out at 2.9. After starting tho view the market it start to drift again out to 2.9 where someone dropped in a 15K back bet which dropped the price back to 2.75
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TheRiddler
- Posts: 102
- Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2009 5:02 pm
One thing neeeel at least you are trying, early days though. There is a topic called 'don't like the flat season' or something similar. There are some points in there you may wish to read. Having a broader view/ understanding about racing will help you analyse the data you write/type. I certainly cannot spare the time to mentor as I am analysing other markets, not sport.neeeel wrote:ok, first day taking notes, heres what I wrote for the first few races. I know that it is mostly a description of what I saw, rather than an analysis of what is happening, I guess thats about my level of understanding at the moment.
A broader understanding even if you don't enjoy the subject can only assist you, it will not take anything away. What do you aim to achieve you need to ask yourself? If you are not interested in the subject you trade then trading the numbers in front of you will take you so far and you may be content with that. It is perfectly feasible to earn several thousand per week playing the numbers, but I know playing the numbers for you has led to lack of confidence etc. That's why aquiring a 'bigger picture' should help. Learning even the very basics of horse racing will help. These basics can be found in many books.
But to aspire beyond several thousand per week (when I do something I aim to complete a challenge to the best of my ability), then you need to out-think the majority and understand the foundations of thought which lies beneath.
It all depends on you. Ask yourself where do you aim to take your trading? Answer this and all you have to do is take forward steps as previously mentioned. Don't forget I'm talking in a simplistic fashion, the sport of horse racing is extremely complex and solving that takes work,work,work.
The easy option is to trade the numbers, note topic previously mentioned about 'don't like flat season'.
Good luck.
Neeeel, I know exactly how you feel, I nearly gave up within my first year, Even now after trading 2 years I still feel like giving up because I can't get to grips with the flat season markets, I feel like I'm new to it all again.
Good luck anyway.
Good luck anyway.
The Riddler is obviously a hugely successful trader and all his opinions have to be respected. But he is obviously someone with huge ambition who aims to make millions by working harder and longer than anyone else, and I worry that others who try to follow his example will over-analyse the markets and sports until they disappear up their own backsides.
I seriously doubt whether more and more analysis will help you. In fact, I believe it could cloud the issue for you still further and increase your sense of frustration unless you work on your mind-set.
I'll bet that if you've been watching the horse racing markets closely over the course of a year, your brain will have picked up far more information than you're remotely aware of. It's really a question of having the confidence to put that knowledge into practice - and to trust your instincts and intuition.
If you're trading in a constant state of fear you're beaten before you started.
Believe me, I know - I've been there!
Bearing that in mind, I can do no better than thoroughly recommend 'Trading In The Zone' by Mark Douglas. It concentrates totally on the mind-set, and although Mark's experience is in financial markets, there are many parallels with sports trading.
And being one with the 'now opporunity flow' holds true equally for all moving money markets.
If you're short of a few bob you can download it for free in pdf format.
It's changed the way I trade completely. Before I read it, I was constantly trading in fear, giving myself a hard time, blaming the markets for my losses, and ending the day with an immense sense of frustration. Sound familiar?
Now my stress levels are down 90% - and I'm working on the other 10% - while I'm managing to make nice, consistent profits.
Okay, I may only be making 'a few thousand a week', but that'll do nicely for me.
Guess I'm not the alpha male type, keen to outperform everyone else. I'll leave that to Gordon 'The Riddler' Gekko!
I seriously doubt whether more and more analysis will help you. In fact, I believe it could cloud the issue for you still further and increase your sense of frustration unless you work on your mind-set.
I'll bet that if you've been watching the horse racing markets closely over the course of a year, your brain will have picked up far more information than you're remotely aware of. It's really a question of having the confidence to put that knowledge into practice - and to trust your instincts and intuition.
If you're trading in a constant state of fear you're beaten before you started.
Believe me, I know - I've been there!
Bearing that in mind, I can do no better than thoroughly recommend 'Trading In The Zone' by Mark Douglas. It concentrates totally on the mind-set, and although Mark's experience is in financial markets, there are many parallels with sports trading.
And being one with the 'now opporunity flow' holds true equally for all moving money markets.
If you're short of a few bob you can download it for free in pdf format.
It's changed the way I trade completely. Before I read it, I was constantly trading in fear, giving myself a hard time, blaming the markets for my losses, and ending the day with an immense sense of frustration. Sound familiar?
Now my stress levels are down 90% - and I'm working on the other 10% - while I'm managing to make nice, consistent profits.
Okay, I may only be making 'a few thousand a week', but that'll do nicely for me.
Guess I'm not the alpha male type, keen to outperform everyone else. I'll leave that to Gordon 'The Riddler' Gekko!
This is a very interesting post indeed. I have like most, encountered frustration regarding Trading and lost a hell of a lot of doe in the proceeds but.. I will not give up!!
Hi Riddler,
Based on your previous posts I'm of the opinion its safe to assume that your Trading is based on hard stats/form of a horse/s as opposed to Trading numbers or am I way off the mark?
And if so when do you choose to Lay or Back your selection/s? Is it around Lunch time or x mins before the off before hedging? Do you have a preferred time frame to place your bets during the day?
Any advice would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks
Hi Riddler,
Based on your previous posts I'm of the opinion its safe to assume that your Trading is based on hard stats/form of a horse/s as opposed to Trading numbers or am I way off the mark?
And if so when do you choose to Lay or Back your selection/s? Is it around Lunch time or x mins before the off before hedging? Do you have a preferred time frame to place your bets during the day?
Any advice would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks
I agree with Fuzzer on 2 counts, firstly as stated in aonother thread, I cannot praise Mark Douglas enough, both his books are great! Trading is actually quite simple, getting control of your mind and your emotions is not! This I believe is why most fail, not bacause they have the wrong strategy!
Secondly, there is no doubt we all pick up more than we realise whilst trading, this is why a trading log is so helpful, if you write things down as you go you have more chance of sifting the wheat from the chaf, so to speak.
Secondly, there is no doubt we all pick up more than we realise whilst trading, this is why a trading log is so helpful, if you write things down as you go you have more chance of sifting the wheat from the chaf, so to speak.
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HappyPunter
- Posts: 1
- Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 12:41 pm
First post here so good luck to you all. LeTiss makes the best point I believe for you. Knowlege is key and maybe your knowlege on horse racing is not as good as it could be to take advantage of the trading on racing. The majority of horses that are injured/off for almost a year, even though dropped in grade will not go off at even money even if the bookies say so.
The top yards with the top jocks with a top horse starting at 1.8 with the bookies and then drifting all afternoon till the off then coming back in. My point is even though advertised that you do not need to know anything about horse racing it is a huge advantage.
Just look at the pattens of prices and the charts etc dont get pulled into the money and being ping ponged between prices. Go in once or twice and have a strat. Dont go in all the time and dont chase losses.
The top yards with the top jocks with a top horse starting at 1.8 with the bookies and then drifting all afternoon till the off then coming back in. My point is even though advertised that you do not need to know anything about horse racing it is a huge advantage.
Just look at the pattens of prices and the charts etc dont get pulled into the money and being ping ponged between prices. Go in once or twice and have a strat. Dont go in all the time and dont chase losses.
a quick update for anyone that is interested
Spent the weekend just watching the markets, reading stuff on the net. Also downloaded the book that was recommended, "Trading in the Zone". I found this very useful and has given me a new perspective on my trading.
Also had a good chat with someone who has helped me a lot and I have renewed enthusiasm and belief that I can do it.
I traded some of the markets yesterday with minimum stakes, and actually had fun and enjoyed it, even though I still lost overall, I feel there is an improvement and so am not giving up yet!
Spent the weekend just watching the markets, reading stuff on the net. Also downloaded the book that was recommended, "Trading in the Zone". I found this very useful and has given me a new perspective on my trading.
Also had a good chat with someone who has helped me a lot and I have renewed enthusiasm and belief that I can do it.
I traded some of the markets yesterday with minimum stakes, and actually had fun and enjoyed it, even though I still lost overall, I feel there is an improvement and so am not giving up yet!
As long as u never give up u will get there!-
TheRiddler
- Posts: 102
- Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2009 5:02 pm
Depends on the runners, numbers, etc. etc. No one strategy fits all. I concentrate on specific races because I know these will be the most profitable and usually the most difficult for the layman and betting market to understand.floyd wrote:
Hi Riddler,
Based on your previous posts I'm of the opinion its safe to assume that your Trading is based on hard stats/form of a horse/s as opposed to Trading numbers or am I way off the mark?
And if so when do you choose to Lay or Back your selection/s? Is it around Lunch time or x mins before the off before hedging? Do you have a preferred time frame to place your bets during the day?
Any advice would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks
I don't really like the combination of hard stats and horses although they are a launch point especially if those stats are used/married with your own stats/understanding of each entry within the market you're analysing. You can make big numbers just cherry picking races and not trawling the available markets each day.
If I've worked out a horse will vastly shorten then I will take positions knowing this fact even if that means backing ante-post. The same in reverse. If I think the market has certain runners incorrectly priced again I will follow suit.
The main thing is that by knowing your way around the market you will already have opened your jaws waiting for others to swim inside.
As traders/punters or a combination of the two we all have one aim and that's to earn money. We are able to do this from the poor judgement of others. The more you know the broader that band of poor judgement becomes for you to milk.
fuzzer54 wrote:.Guess I'm not the alpha male type, keen to outperform everyone else. I'll leave that to Gordon 'The Riddler' Gekko!
I must confess I had to look this up. I guess I'll have to make an effort to watch the film now. But then again I don't think I'll bother, not with epsom looming large.
