Back the Likely Winner Automation Bot for Horse Racing

[novicestakes]

....
Interesting stats you have about laying the likely loser. Mind me asking what odds parameters you are using to lay? And does the 7ish% of losses outweighing the 90ish% of wins?

Yes (touching wood) the system is working in my favour, and whilst the occasional loss does present a big loss of cash, the frequency of wins does cover it. If I had 2 losses in a day a full odds, id lose, but thankfully its working ok. yesterday wasnt good, but the day before was awesome... but im stil in profit.

Im not looking to make a living from this, but just to have something to focus on and give me some pocket money.

[jmcconville05]

Hi Dallas,
was wondering if for instance i used this to place a back bet on the first horse to reach 1.99 could i place a second bet on the first horse to reach 1.5 excluding the first horse that reached 1.99?

[jmcconville05]

Hi Dallas,
can i place a second back bet on the second horse to reach the same odds as the first horse? And not place it on the first horse

[Dallas]

Hi Dallas,
was wondering if for instance i used this to place a back bet on the first horse to reach 1.99 could i place a second bet on the first horse to reach 1.5 excluding the first horse that reached 1.99?

Yes if you duplicate the rule type details of how to do that in this thread
viewtopic.php?f=47&t=11857

Then amend the odds to 1.5 or whatever you want to back at and add a condition
'Number of Matched bets condition'
On 'Selection'
Is 'Equal to' 0

Hi Dallas,
can i place a second back bet on the second horse to reach the same odds as the first horse? And not place it on the first horse

Not sure what you mean here - Do you mean ignore the first horse to trade at 2.0 or 1.5 etc and only back the 2nd horse to do so?

[jimibt]

Hi Dallas,
was wondering if for instance i used this to place a back bet on the first horse to reach 1.99 could i place a second bet on the first horse to reach 1.5 excluding the first horse that reached 1.99?

Yes if you duplicate the rule type details of how to do that in this thread
viewtopic.php?f=47&t=11857

Then amend the odds to 1.5 or whatever you want to back at and add a condition
'Number of Matched bets condition'
On 'Selection'
Is 'Equal to' 0

Hi Dallas,
can i place a second back bet on the second horse to reach the same odds as the first horse? And not place it on the first horse

Not sure what you mean here - Do you mean ignore the first horse to trade at 2.0 or 1.5 etc and only back the 2nd horse to do so?

Dallas, i guess if your observation is correct, then he could run a signal to identify when the 1st runner hit the target odds and then when a subsequent runner (other than the signalled runner) hits the required odds, then place the back bet on that. The only issue i see here is that on more than one occasion today, i've seen the winning runner hit 1.5, bounce out to plus 5 odds (and another runner hit sub 1.5) and then rebound back to 1.5 on its merry way to 1.01.

i'd be inclined to gather stats on this observation before basing a strategy on it as the odds are going to be below evens, therefore, you'll need 3 (and more likely 4) winners for every loser to make this pay anything back longterm.

[Dallas]

Dallas, i guess if your observation is correct, then he could run a signal to identify when the 1st runner hit the target odds and then when a subsequent runner (other than the signalled runner) hits the required odds, then place the back bet on that.

If i have understood his requirements correctly yes that's the way i would of suggested doing it, coping the settings from the 'Target selected runner' bot would probably be the easiest way to do it

[jmcconville05]

Thanks,

My thinking was that to back the first horse to trade at odds of 1.99
Then to place another back bet on a second horse if it reaches 1.80

Therefore if horse No.1 goes onto win without any contenders then its all profit and the second horse isnt needed.
If Horse 2 backbet is placed at 1.80 then i will lose my 1st stake but will win with horse 2(Hopefully) and have a small loss then onto the next race.

Its just i have practiced a lot of different methods and surprisingly there is quite a lot of horses reach 1.99 and win without any other horses getting to 1.80

[Dallas]

Ok no probs, following the top part of what I put in my first reply will achive this.

[jimibt]

Dallas, i guess if your observation is correct, then he could run a signal to identify when the 1st runner hit the target odds and then when a subsequent runner (other than the signalled runner) hits the required odds, then place the back bet on that.

If i have understood his requirements correctly yes that's the way i would of suggested doing it, coping the settings from the 'Target selected runner' bot would probably be the easiest way to do it

if you wanna copy settings from one rule file to another, then just grab my little rule file addin: https://www.dropbox.com/s/dmof6wygyo3yj ... s.exe?dl=0

see this thread for more details on what it does: viewtopic.php?f=37&t=12022

[buddypeach]

Hi Dallas,

I'm experimenting with this myself, started off with your stock bot (with a back on the favourite at 1.99) and the then duplicated the back in line with other suggestions on here to place a new back at 1.8 if the first goes tits up.

The problem is that despite having "The number of matched bets condition" on "the selection" set to "zero" it's consistently placing 2 bets simultaneously on the one horse.

Any ideas please?

[Dallas]

Sounds like the odds are dropping so quick its triggering both as it passes, If your first bet is using the fixed odds condition to trigger at less than 1.99 and your second bet uses one to trigger at less than 1.80

Go back to the first and add another fixed odds condition is greater than 1.81

That should allow only one or the other to trigger, obviously depending on your exact prices your using the above may have to be slightly different but you ll get the idea.

Also adding in a fill or kill bet time condition with 2-3secs will ensure further bets cant be triggered in close succession which can sometimes happen when using the unmatched bets condition due to the 1 sec in-play delay a 2nd can still be triggered before the first reaches and shows in the market.

[buddypeach]

Brilliant, thank you, I'll give it a go.

[ddbgoms]

Yes you just need to add a single new rule type (dont need to create mulitple ones) by clicking on the green plus icon and add the following (or if you dont want to back the fav as wel and just want to lay the others remove the back rule type by highlighting it and clicking on the green minus icon).

General
"Place a lay bet"
set your times
Trigger 5 times (or how ever many your likely to be laying at the most)
Applies to "ANY"

Parameters
Place at "Best Market price"
stake (I would recomend staking by liability rather than fixed stake)

Conditions
"Fixed odds condition"
Applies to "By poisition (sorted in order of favourtism) 1"
Back price
is "Less" than 1.25

"Fixed odds condition"
Applies to "ANY"
Lay price
is "Greater" than 5.0

"Fixed odds condition"
Applies to "ANY"
Lay price
is "Less" than 30.0

"Matched bets condition"
Number of matched bets on selection equal to 0

"Unmatched bets condition"
Number of Unmatched bets on selection equal to 0

Obvioustly try in practice mode first to make sure but that should do it

Hi Dallas. I created an automation to match exactly the above, and placed it running in practice mode. It worked ok for 5 races, firing 3 times where the criteria was met, and laying dormant on 2 others.

However, things then went south.

On one race, it placed a £166.67 lay bet at odds of 1.06 on a runner (which went onto win, meaning I theoretically lost the £10 liability). In another race, it placed 2 lay bets - one £47.62 at odds of 1.21 and a second on the same horse for £52.63. This horse also won, meaning I had a liability and theoretical loss of over £15.00. Luckily, only practice mode, but it did make me worry a bit.

I don't quite understand where it went wrong? It is laying on odds well below 5, even though there is a condition that it must be >5 but <20 in my case. It also laid the same horse more than once, and in one case, the automation fired 6 times when only 5 were specified.

I realise this is a long shot to some extent, but any thoughts on what may have happened?

I've taken screenshots from the log and automation file if they would help in any way?

[Dallas]

If you can attach the rule to start with ill have a look at that, under certain circumstances even with the unmatched bets condition the in-play delay can mean 2 or more bets can still be submitted if you dont have the correct re-arm times etc, but there should be no reason why it triggers 6 times if its only set to trigger 5.

[ddbgoms]

Thanks for your kind offer of help.

File attached.