Out of options

[JKawai]

, I look for certain races at the start of each day, these are then added to guardian and I forget the rest, sometimes especially in winter I often only end up with only 4-6 races I’m prepared to even look at for the day and even these don’t always present me with an entry point so may end up only actively trading 2-3 markets some days.

EXACTLY - and this was the turning point in my trading, doing this is where I started to make easy money, because I'd pick the races beforehand. However now when I look through the list I'll see a price spread that sits just outside my criteria, and I'll think to myself, 'what if it drifts into my criteria'? So I have a bunch of 'grey area' trades, and usually they don't move so I just dismiss them when I come to my computer and see they've not changed much, but then you'll get the odd few where it's still grey but a little 'blacker' than it was and they are spec trades and force of hand/boredom makes me trade them...!

For example today now I'm in the red (not by much, less than 5%) from trading out of boredom and I can see there is one race left on the card that meets my criteria. I'm having to tell myself not to trade this JUST because it's the last one and JUST because I'm in the red. That's the tough part, ignoring those facts and treating it as an isolated trade.

I'm listening to the audio book now, thanks very much those who recommended it. In the opening he mentions 'thinking in terms of probability' - I'm going to try doing this more, asking myself the question, "am I at least 80% confident of this prediction?"

[JKawai]

Entsar was the choice - my god that was worth the wait!! Annoyingly though I got in too early before previous race finished, was originally in a lay position so profit on the flipside wasn't as good as it could have been. New rule! Wait for the big money to arrive!

[Crazyskier]

The only way you will win at this is through DISCIPLINE, that is it. It is so simple.
Believe in GETTING RICH SLOW

I'm 100% behind this. I also used to blow entire banks from chasing losses and silly last-minute spam clicking in play low odds horses.

Now I am far far less stressed and use automation for almost all of my trades.

IF IT WORKS CONSISTENTLY, AUTOMATE IT. This removes the discipline and impulsive urges. I'd also say use only 5-10% of your bank per event maximum - allow room for error etc.

I don't have the race-reading craft or trading skills to manually trade, nor the time to acquire them, but I recognise that I went on tilt after spending hours making consistent profits only to have one ridiculous event that cost me in a few minutes, more than I'd made in a whole day!!

Now my expectations are managed - this isn't an adrenaline-fuelled frantic half hour, but rather a luxury cruise, watching the pennies turn into pounds...

Less instant gratification, more long term consistency. Works for me. Hope you can make it work for you too.

[booboo]

TBH ...have a rethink.

As in, don't say "it's not for you", but say "what is this trading lark all about".

Presumably you are "on this exchange" to make money ?
So "understand" how to do that. Stop trying to "find the direction". Or "catch knives". You will lose.

The fact you want to get "family and friends" to "watch you trade" isn't good (even tho you say it's for "motivation"). Infact it is probably the reverse. It means you have an ego. And that's not good.

But.. anything on an exchange or a market, is a "zero sum game". The exchange (if good) collects a commission (or a "spread" or a "whatsoever"). Your loses merely get divided between those people that can take them from you. I'm afraid "that's life". If you are foolish enough to play.

The guy that "invented/wrote" this software, probably thought "hey, I can sell this software....and make millions".
Everyone could work markets ?
Alas... he ended up trading them. Because he "knew/learnt/appreciated" markets/exchanges....and the software sales were "lacking". Why ?

...the answer is, it is not a "get rich quick scheme".
It is "long hours" of "hard study" and "training". And "YouTube" or "What I did last year" books, aren't helpful.

But what do I know ?
I grew up on a stud farm. I knew more pinhookers than I care to mention and I started work in "The City" as a "runner" for a T/O brokerage....before I could get near a phone (sales) or a terminal or a decent company that would even look at my CV. In those days it was... It was, what it was. And it wasn't "always, all that brilliant" !

Advice wise... book a course with PW.
But before you ask him a question, understand "what a market or exchange is doing". Hell, with "unlimited cash" and "no repercussions" and a salary at the end of the day... riding a "trending market" isn't that hard at all. But that is not the game we are in (be that stocks, FX, Futures or whatever)

Sorry to be harsh. It's just the way it is.

[booboo]

To add...

I don't believe (my training has taught me), that a "market" or exchange driven market, will "trade" beyond One SD of that market. If it does (and they do), it is on "low volume". And later it "may" establish a "new" median (and all Vol will be within One SD).

Everyone wants to trade the "outlier".
And it just cannot be done (hence "the 90pc").

I don't want to "p*ss on your chips"... and I am not offering free advice. I would like to know if other people involved in this type of biz agreee...or disagree !

[Bluesky]

Thanks for your honesty JKawai, I think the fact that people like LeTiss have managed to overcome similar problems should give you some confidence.

The following idea might sound like a daft suggestion, but I found it helpful when I used to play a lot of on line poker.

Imagine you are trading with a top trader looking over your shoulder (someone like PW, Jolly Green etc), and if you are alone talk out aloud.

Explain to the imaginary top trader exactly what you are doing and why, include you entire thought process.

This type of thing helped me when it came to playing poker, and stopped me doing some things that I knew were wrong. Make sure your alone when you do it though other wise you could find your friends /family send around the men in the white coats for you.

I'm sure the above can work for people even if you only say it in your head, but I think saying it out aloud has a better chance of success.

[JKawai]

hi booboo, thanks for your reply.

The fact you want to get "family and friends" to "watch you trade" isn't good (even tho you say it's for "motivation"). Infact it is probably the reverse. It means you have an ego. And that's not good.

no, you misinterpreted the reason - never said it was for motivation, i'm not even unmotivated - the reason was to stop myself embarrassing myself, breaking rules etc. nothing to do with ego.

...the answer is, it is not a "get rich quick scheme".
It is "long hours" of "hard study" and "training". And "YouTube" or "What I did last year" books, aren't helpful.

Advice wise... book a course with PW.

haha, that's pretty day 1 advice, sorry - just to be clear about what this thread is about - i've been doing this almost every day for a year and half. written hundreds of pages of notes, have recorded data for about 30 self-coined strategies based on natural market exposure and pattern observation, went on PW's and steve howe's course over a year ago. PW's course doesn't teach you how to trade, or anything about psychology - it teaches you about the markets and the software and what charts mean. PW is right to keep his cards close to his chest - that's what any sane gambler with an edge should do. thanks for the advice but i am well, well, well beyond courses now. it's the psychology side i need to crack now. i don't watch youtube videos etc because i don't want technical advice, and they tend to be toytown/pseudoscientific nonsense anyway, most celebrity traders are not mathematically intelligent it seems. i know now that trading - having an edge in a saturated market - is an independent endeavour. the part that CAN be advised by others - and the part i am willing to listen to - is the psychology part. my problem is not how to read markets but how to stop myself breaking my own rules. i've started listening to that trading book and, whilst it's verbose, its repetition is actually useful in creating a beacon so large in my brain about not breaking rules that i'm likely to remember it before every trade i enter.

[JKawai]

Imagine you are trading with a top trader looking over your shoulder (someone like PW, Jolly Green etc), and if you are alone talk out aloud.

Explain to the imaginary top trader exactly what you are doing and why, include you entire thought process.

This type of thing helped me when it came to playing poker, and stopped me doing some things that I knew were wrong. Make sure your alone when you do it though other wise you could find your friends /family send around the men in the white coats for you.

I'm sure the above can work for people even if you only say it in your head, but I think saying it out aloud has a better chance of success.

hi bluesky, appreciate this advice, and it IS great advice, but unfortunately - been there done that! tried that, tried loads of variants thereof - this is why i considered streaming my trades so that THERE WOULD ACTUALLY BE the risk of people watching. simply telling myself 'imagine people are watching', whilst logical, whilst reiterated to myself time and time again, isn't enough, because it's not a real threat.

it's like telling a smoker trying to quit, 'imagine that if you smoke that next cigarette, you'll die immediately'. they'll just say "well i won't" and then light up.

anyway i'm trying to rein in my selection process even more now - being extremely dismissive of markets. in the trading book people here recommended, douglas talks about trading being 'effortless' - i'm trying to just hone in on those trades, let them come to me. if i'm looking at a market and i'm 'trying' to make sense of it, it's not a tradeable market (for me).

[JKawai]

To add...

I don't believe (my training has taught me), that a "market" or exchange driven market, will "trade" beyond One SD of that market. If it does (and they do), it is on "low volume". And later it "may" establish a "new" median (and all Vol will be within One SD).

Everyone wants to trade the "outlier".
And it just cannot be done (hence "the 90pc").

I don't want to "p*ss on your chips"... and I am not offering free advice. I would like to know if other people involved in this type of biz agreee...or disagree !

sorry i don't know what any of this means in relation to this thread?

[JKawai]

The only way you will win at this is through DISCIPLINE, that is it. It is so simple.
Believe in GETTING RICH SLOW

I'm 100% behind this. I also used to blow entire banks from chasing losses and silly last-minute spam clicking in play low odds horses.

Now I am far far less stressed and use automation for almost all of my trades.

IF IT WORKS CONSISTENTLY, AUTOMATE IT. This removes the discipline and impulsive urges. I'd also say use only 5-10% of your bank per event maximum - allow room for error etc.

I don't have the race-reading craft or trading skills to manually trade, nor the time to acquire them, but I recognise that I went on tilt after spending hours making consistent profits only to have one ridiculous event that cost me in a few minutes, more than I'd made in a whole day!!

Now my expectations are managed - this isn't an adrenaline-fuelled frantic half hour, but rather a luxury cruise, watching the pennies turn into pounds...

Less instant gratification, more long term consistency. Works for me. Hope you can make it work for you too.

Yeah this does sound like the ideal scenario. Not sure how I could automate my trades though. You're lucky you have an automatable strategy. Do you use third party software to betangel or can you do it all within betangel?

EDIT: I really don't know how you could automate swing trading.

First of all you'd have to tell the bot how to recognise a market that exhibits a price spread that is conducive to swing trading, i.e. one with the top 3 runners at 4.0 is unlikely to be a swing market.

Then you'd have to teach it how to recognise a market that is likely to be volatile based on the amount of unmatched volume sitting at the sides, the bid offer spread, where the race is, what time of day it is.

You'd have to tell the bot how to know when the previous race has started and finished to know when to expect big money to arrive.

You'd have to teach it how to recognise what is a sufficient one-sided fill rate to open a trade.

You'd have to teach it to recognise a 3v1 situation and any XOs that may need negotiation.

You'd have to teach it to ignore spikes as single opinion and not believable fill rate.

You'd have to teach it to understand whether a retrace is going to return based on previous behaviour/people taking value, or whether it is a change of direction, one of the other prices has changed direction etc.

You'd have to teach it to know when to lighten the position at sticking points, and when to not do this based on the intensity of the fill rate.

You'd have to teach it to read ranges.

You'd have to teach it to know when to exit a trade based on the 'likely' baseline, and based on the price of the other runners.

You'd have to teach it to read the fill rate on the other runners and know how seriously to take it.

You'd have to teach it to know what the 'breaking point' is for drifts on other runners where traders will take value and a possible change in direction will occur.

You'd have to teach it to understand line up commentary, and to actually accommodate line-up trades.

The list goes on... I can't see how you could automate this type of trading!

[to75ne]

you dont have use automation to just trade. you can and use automation (and/or excel), to help beef up your lack of discipline for instance.

[booboo]

I'm no psychologist...but I can see where your problem is.

Read from " First of all you'd have to tell the bot how to recognise a market that exhibits a price spread that is conducive to swing trading....." and go all the way to the end.

Or, print off the phrase "a market that exhibits a price spread that is conducive to swing trading" and paste it above your desk.

Look at it, read it and think about it everyday. And then you will have a "light bulb" moment. Because, therein is your problem.

The best people that work in this business (that make money from speculation) sit there and say "I have no idea what will happen today" and then off we pop and try and control only the things we can control.
But you're looking at "a price" and saying "that is conducive of this".

Your problem isn't "psychological".
Your problem is you're losing your money. And your losing it in something/to something you can't control.
If you grasp that concept, you may well be on your way to a better future. Fail to understand that and you'll lose your shirt.

[Bluesky]

PW's course doesn't teach you how to trade, or anything about psychology - it teaches you about the markets and the software and what charts mean. PW is right to keep his cards close to his chest - that's what any sane gambler with an edge should do.

Did you find however that what he did teach you enable you to develop your own trading methodology, or is that why you then went on and did Steve Howe's course?

I'm just wondering why you would have done both courses, or was it the case that you thought it would be beneficial to see how to expert traders operate.

I think I have read somewhere that Steve Howe did PWs course several years after he had become a profitable trader, just to see if there were any new avenues he could exploit.

[Bluesky]

About the only remaining thing I can think of, and it does seem quite drastic, and if you can afford it, have you thought of seeking and paying for professional help for a psychologist. Lots of sports people use them, and I have heard of financial traders who have been helped by them. I would imagine it would be rather expensive but if you think you have the potential to do well at sports trading then it could be well worth it.

If any successful traders reading this have used one they might be willing to send you a PM with the details of the person who helped them.

[stueytrader]

That's an interesting suggestion Bluesky, but I'd guess it would mostly apply to those with a fair bit of readies to throw around, as you say....it's not likely to be cheap.

Problem is, the people it would most likely help (currently losing traders) may also be less likely to have the funds too?

Personally, in the end, I think it would still come back to the person helping themselves. So, I prefer to suggest self-help as the best option in the long run. Doesn't mean you will succeed, but if you work on your self improvement then that will be closely connected to the way you function when alone later on in the process.
I'm still working on myself, and I don't think this is something that ever comes to an end. If you stop improving all aspects of your self, you will backslide.