Hi,
I have just been bouncing a few ideas around in my head and just wanted to ask a question. I am quite new to this as well so it could just be (and probably is) not even possible or doesn't make sense haha. I wanted to know if you could trade the Over-round. For example, If the back side is around 108% could you not back all the runners and if it comes down to 102% lay all the runners? In my head this seems to make sense although maybe the change in odds will be so small you will not make a profit? Any help would be appreciated.
Thanks
Over-Round
When the back side is 108%, backing all runners gives you an instant guaranteed 8% loss.
However, I think i know what you meant. When the back side is 108% you need backers to take your offer-to-lay prices, which is most unlikely, unless just one of your prices is 'wrong', in which case you'll lay only that runner which then shortens, leaving you in a loss.
Your idea hasn't really worked since mid/late-2000, when I used to input Ladbrokes early prices onto betfair overnight and would wake up to find half of them had been laid.
Seventeen years on, that doesn't work any more.
However, I think i know what you meant. When the back side is 108% you need backers to take your offer-to-lay prices, which is most unlikely, unless just one of your prices is 'wrong', in which case you'll lay only that runner which then shortens, leaving you in a loss.
Your idea hasn't really worked since mid/late-2000, when I used to input Ladbrokes early prices onto betfair overnight and would wake up to find half of them had been laid.
Seventeen years on, that doesn't work any more.
Thanks for the replies 
Just been thinking about it and i think i got it wrong in my original post
.
If the Over-round was very near 100% for example 100.6% the odds for all the horses on average would be higher and offering better value than if the book percentage was 108%.
If you were to back all horses when the book percentage was very low then, if it drifted to say 108% the odds for all the horses would be lower on average so you lay all horses.
Hope that makes more sense (If any!)
Just been thinking about it and i think i got it wrong in my original post
.If the Over-round was very near 100% for example 100.6% the odds for all the horses on average would be higher and offering better value than if the book percentage was 108%.
If you were to back all horses when the book percentage was very low then, if it drifted to say 108% the odds for all the horses would be lower on average so you lay all horses.
Hope that makes more sense (If any!)
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spreadbetting
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I'm not clear what you're trying to suggest from your posts to be honest and imagine others aren't clear abut it either.
Plenty of people try and take advantage of the over/underrounds, in simple terms it's what bookmakers are trying to do, make a no lose book by laying all runners for over 100%. It all sounds very simple but in real terms it's very hard to ensure you get a fully matched book so you'll usually have certain runners odds that have run away from you and need to be closed out for an overall loss.
Remember you get two percentages displayed one is the overround (the percentage for laying all runners) and the other the underrround (% of backing all runners) those %'s are derived from the prices on offer not prices to take, it's quite hard to ensure laying/backing at those prices that you'll get everything matched..
Plenty of people try and take advantage of the over/underrounds, in simple terms it's what bookmakers are trying to do, make a no lose book by laying all runners for over 100%. It all sounds very simple but in real terms it's very hard to ensure you get a fully matched book so you'll usually have certain runners odds that have run away from you and need to be closed out for an overall loss.
Remember you get two percentages displayed one is the overround (the percentage for laying all runners) and the other the underrround (% of backing all runners) those %'s are derived from the prices on offer not prices to take, it's quite hard to ensure laying/backing at those prices that you'll get everything matched..
Just back every horse one ticket above what you lay it at and you'll be in profit. The overround could stay the same or get worse while you're doing this as it's changing all the time as horses' odds chnage. But it will have no effetc on your profit.
A large overround would mean the market is loose and the odds generally uncompetitive so if you anticipate a move from a large book percentage to small one, the market would drift as the odds offered get more competitive.
Thought that might be the casespreadbetting wrote: ↑Sun Jul 02, 2017 5:45 pmI'm not clear what you're trying to suggest from your posts to be honest and imagine others aren't clear abut it either.
It my head its making sense but that is probably because I dont know enough about it yet. Just thought I would throw the question out there and learn from the responses.
I was just thinking because the Over-round on the back side doesnt go below 100% due to cross matching, then if you back all runners when its very close to 100% if the Over-round goes higher than that to say 108% then would all the odds on average not be lower? Offering an opportunity to lay?
OK. Thanks for the replies.
When I said lay when the Over-round is 108% I mean when the Under-round is 92%.
I need to look at how the change in book percentage changes the odds I think
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spreadbetting
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- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
The problem with a 108%/92% book is that there will be very little activity in the market and it's more likely people will just pick off the bets you place that are value to them and leave the others. Just because the market %'s may later close to 101/99 doesn't mean the bets you've had taken would have increased or decreased in your favour.
I have been looking at the upcoming Chile vs Germany game.
The odds on the betfair exchange are: Chile - 3.25
Germany - 2.4
Draw - 3.5
Over-round=101%
William hill odds are: Chile - 3.10
Germany - 2.37
Draw - 3.10
Over-round=106.7%
Im saying that if you backed all 3 outcomes on Betfair at the Over-round the if the Over-round went to 106.7% then in turn the Under-round would be about 94% offering a lay all 3 selections opportunity
Hope that is more clear of what im thinking. Feel free to tell me if im wrong or it wouldnt work
The odds on the betfair exchange are: Chile - 3.25
Germany - 2.4
Draw - 3.5
Over-round=101%
William hill odds are: Chile - 3.10
Germany - 2.37
Draw - 3.10
Over-round=106.7%
Im saying that if you backed all 3 outcomes on Betfair at the Over-round the if the Over-round went to 106.7% then in turn the Under-round would be about 94% offering a lay all 3 selections opportunity
Hope that is more clear of what im thinking. Feel free to tell me if im wrong or it wouldnt work
Ahhh OK. That makes sense. Cheersspreadbetting wrote: ↑Sun Jul 02, 2017 6:43 pmThe problem with a 108%/92% book is that there will be very little activity in the market and it's more likely people will just pick off the bets you place that are value to them and leave the others. Just because the market %'s may later close to 101/99 doesn't mean the bets you've had taken would have increased or decreased in your favour.
The overround and underround aren't directly (mathematically) related, i.e. you can have 134% / 98% or 101% / 68%brunty122 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 02, 2017 6:49 pmI have been looking at the upcoming Chile vs Germany game.
The odds on the betfair exchange are: Chile - 3.25
Germany - 2.4
Draw - 3.5
Over-round=101%
William hill odds are: Chile - 3.10
Germany - 2.37
Draw - 3.10
Over-round=106.7%
Im saying that if you backed all 3 outcomes on Betfair at the Over-round the if the Over-round went to 106.7% then in turn the Under-round would be about 94% offering a lay all 3 selections opportunity
Hope that is more clear of what im thinking. Feel free to tell me if im wrong or it wouldnt work