Transition from Flat to Non-Flat Trading: Seeking Guidance :-)

[Diggy1884]

Given the current absence of Flat racing before the Ebor, I thought it would be an opportune moment to reach out. (I posted this in the thread but it was very busy so perhaps someone may spot it here and reply)

Over the past 1.5 years, I've invested considerably in pre-off horse trading, with a particular emphasis on Flat racing. The strategy I use and finally got working (along with my own behavioural adjustments) predominantly revolves around backing runners close to the post.

Initially, my goal was to cement this strategy before branching out. However, with the impending transition from Flat to Non-Flat racing, I'm concerned about the sustainability of the foundation I've built.

To the experienced traders here:
- What distinguishes market liquidity or dynamics between Flat and Non-Flat races?
- Can a strategy tailored for Flat racing still hold its ground in Non-Flat contexts, especially regarding late entries?
- How does money flows differ from 10 mins out to Off?

The idea of potentially shelving a strategy, on which I've spent innumerable hours, is daunting, especially when I was looking forward to scaling it. I understand that adaptability is key in trading, but this transition feels like a monumental shift, and I can't help but think about the sunk cost fallacy.

Insights from those acquainted with such market transitions would be greatly appreciated. Do you have any experiences or advice to share?

Warm regards,
Adam

[arbitrage16]

1.5 years is very early in your trading career.

Flip it another way, be excited about moving to the jumps, because it's more opportunities to learn different markets and find new strategies.

Plus, it's half of the racing calendar - you need to figure it out if you are going to be successful at this.

[Diggy1884]

Thanks for the advice.

Seems strong but I will accept it and carry on doing more of what I am whilst considering the future wisely.

Cheers

[Diggy1884]

I've been involved with the exchange (matched betting/trading) and various forums for a good while now (much longer than 1.5 years. add 6), I should've made that clearer from the start — my apologies for any oversight.

[arbitrage16]

Matched betting experience is worth about a week's trading on the exchanges. i.e. whatever you learn MBing can be learned in one week on the exchanges.

You're coming from a place of fear when you talk about your edge, that is entirely the wrong mindset. Why aren't you seeing the exchanges as a place of abundance?

[Derek27]

Non-flat racing is known as jumps or National Hunt.

Transition very much depends on the strategy. There are some scalping and swing-trading strategies that can be used interchangeably between flat and jumps. Others are not just suited to one code but suited to specific courses or race types. From my experience, trading a strong handicap on the flat is more like trading a competitive handicap over the jumps than a flat maiden.

Good luck with your transition but sticking your feet in the water and getting a feel for the difference (and similarities) is probably the best way to go.

[Diggy1884]

Hi mate, really appreciate the input so far.

Just wanted to clarify a couple of things and bring the focus back to my original questions, which I feel haven't been fully addressed.

About matched betting and trading: I understand that they're different, but my experience in matched betting isn't entirely irrelevant. I've moved well beyond entry-level bonus bagging and was into "hardcore each-way place arbing," as someone once described it.

I have organizational skills, a solid understanding of process management, and I'm no stranger to odds and markets. So, saying my experience is worth only "a week's trading on the exchanges" doesn't fully capture it. I do get what you're saying though, they're totally different mindsets.

On the mindset issue: I fully grasp the importance of having the right mindset for trading. For the last 1.5 years, I've dedicated myself to this endeavour—not just the trading aspect but also reading and educating myself—as if it were a full-time job. I've had both the time and financial resources to focus solely on this. Prior to that, I was composing for work while also heavily involved in forums, paid ones included, and various trading software—the whole shebang, if you will. My hesitation about jump racing is not about fear (although I will spend more time considering this); it's more about caution due to the significant time and resources I've already invested in flat races.

Future plans: I plan to scale my current strategy and work on new ones that are further out from post time. These align with the principle of "Mastering 1 strategy," as laid out in "The Discipline Trader." I'm confident that these new strategies will work well for both flat and jump races. I also intend to allocate a day per week/fortnight to create a research plan and explore the financial markets, as I genuinely enjoy trading and believe in diversification.

Growing Pains: I understand that once you master multiple strategies, like Caan and Peter, you can trade successfully in most races and make good money. That just feels about 8 years away for me, which is naturally a concern.

I'm focused on mastering one strategy and the process itself is excruciatingly slow—I can't emphasize this enough. I meticulously manage an equity curve, input details of all my actions post session and review, keep track of everything make adjustments. It's incredibly labour-intensive.

If I were managing 3 or 4 proven strategies, the days might feel more rewarding and ideally more balanced, I could leave the desk for a bit instead of being glued to the chance of my 1 trade opportunity I could spend a day with my fiancé more often, try to start a family.

For now, it often feels like pulling teeth. I'm pressing on, even though the ghost of the sunk cost fallacy is taunting me from not too far away. My equity curve holds up, and I know when I stick to my rules…It works. It doesn’t mean scaling won’t be challenging though and it doesn’t negate my overarching concerns unfortunately.

Maybe I need to work on seeing more gold in the exchange, maybe I don’t actually.

Original Questions: To circle back, I'm very interested in the differences in market dynamics between flat and jump races, specifically the flow of money from 10 minutes out to the "Off" time. So if anyone has insights on this, please share.

Also, I'd love to hear from anyone who's successfully scaled their trading strategies or mastered a single system.

Cheers

[Diggy1884]

Non-flat racing is known as jumps or National Hunt.

Transition very much depends on the strategy. There are some scalping and swing-trading strategies that can be used interchangeably between flat and jumps. Others are not just suited to one code but suited to specific courses or race types. From my experience, trading a strong handicap on the flat is more like trading a competitive handicap over the jumps than a flat maiden.

Good luck with your transition but sticking your feet in the water and getting a feel for the difference (and similarities) is probably the best way to go.

Not sure how to reply properly.

Thanks for the time, interesting about the Hcaps, I will look out for that.

I tested my strat on non flat yesterday and it is silly different haha
the way the odds more closer to post seems to be (maybe I'm fooled by randomness) absolutely bonkers volatile in comparison.

[arbitrage16]

You should feel daunted. Trading is flipping hard.

Figuring out how the market moves is easy, watch Peter's videos, it's all there.

What you will struggle with - and this is apparent from what you write - is the mindset required to apply what you've learned consistently, under pressure, day in and day out.

Good luck.

[Euler]

One major dynamic that is different between racing codes, flat and jumps racing, is the amount of time you get to trade. Flat racing is quick and fast and there are lots of races. There are less jumps races, but because that run for longer there is less time between races to trade.

Also, the volume matched on jumps tends to be lower on average, they are less liquid.

[Diggy1884]

One major dynamic that is different between racing codes, flat and jumps racing, is the amount of time you get to trade. Flat racing is quick and fast and there are lots of races. There are less jumps races, but because that run for longer there is less time between races to trade.

Also, the volume matched on jumps tends to be lower on average, they are less liquid.

Cheers Euler for the info on flat and jumps.

With jumps being longer, and less run time (parade-stalls, I assume for now), the time pressure that is incubated during any given live race could lead to some interesting trading opportunities on the next race whilst this one is still active, I can imagine money comes in sooner and potentially more spread out at times, punter focus adapting in real time to the results as horses fall, there could be some predictably rash decisions popping up there, I think this will certainly be an angle worth exploring.

I have these average race times—I'm not certain exactly how accurate they but seems a useful snapshot.

--Removed as I posted the incorrect data, I will try get it posted up correctly soon--

Thank you for the detailed input.

[ShaunWhite]

Flat: Average Time by Distance
- 5 Furlongs: ~1 minute
- 6 Furlongs: ~1 minute 10 sec
- 7 Furlongs: ~1 minute 20 sec

Jumps: Average Time by Distance
- 2 Miles: ~4 minutes
- 2 Miles 5 Furlongs: ~5 minutes 30 sec

? I think you need to review your averages. 10s/f on the flat vs 1m30s/f on the jumps?

With jumps being longer, and less run time (parade-stalls, I assume for now)

There's no stalls in NH racing. The longer gap between races is usually down to there being fewer meetings in the winter.

Money usually starts to come in on all race types when people actually get their eyes on the horse, parade ring and going down. While it's still in its box there's very little new information to drive prices.

[Diggy1884]

Flat: Average Time by Distance
- 5 Furlongs: ~1 minute
- 6 Furlongs: ~1 minute 10 sec
- 7 Furlongs: ~1 minute 20 sec

Jumps: Average Time by Distance
- 2 Miles: ~4 minutes
- 2 Miles 5 Furlongs: ~5 minutes 30 sec

? I think you need to review your averages. 10s/f on the flat vs 1m30s/f on the jumps?

With jumps being longer, and less run time (parade-stalls, I assume for now)

There's no stalls in NH racing. The longer gap between races is usually down to there being fewer meetings in the winter.

Money usually starts to come in on all race types when people actually get their eyes on the horse, parade ring and going down. While it's still in its box there's very little new information to drive prices.

Thanks for pointing that out, Shaun. I will get it amended later tonight, or tomorrow at the latest. I want it to be accurate, especially since others may see it.

I'm aware of the situation with stalls; it was my first area of focus when I started out. I think it really helped me reduce the scope of noise doing that. I have different automation settings for flat and non-flat scenarios—the latter only sends me alerts, as I don't trade them. I also use 'stall draw' on my custom columns to filter them out at the start of the day.

But I bet there is a bet angel software trick with the coupons that can do this for me (hmm), something I need to create time for. I digress.

I think one of the puzzles for me about flat/non flat is how the money flows when they get down to that stalls area. It does seem to be different from what I have seen in flat for the reasons mention. I haven't seen (collected the data) enough to be sure I am not just talking waffle though.

Cheers Shaun

[ShaunWhite]

I think one of the puzzles for me about flat/non flat is how the money flows when they get down to that stalls area. It does seem to be different from what I have seen in flat for the reasons mention. I haven't seen (collected the data) enough to be sure I am not just talking waffle though.

Flat you've got how easily they load or not, jumps often about the position they're taking as they approach the tape (dobbers might be getting involved).
.

[Diggy1884]

I think one of the puzzles for me about flat/non flat is how the money flows when they get down to that stalls area. It does seem to be different from what I have seen in flat for the reasons mention. I haven't seen (collected the data) enough to be sure I am not just talking waffle though.

Flat you've got how easily they load or not, jumps often about the position they're taking as they approach the tape (dobbers might be getting involved).
.

Ahh dobbers, forgot about that aspect! Pace maps/front runners.
I remember there was a front runner list (I think it was that) on another trader’s site, do you think a lot of people dob on those selections daily? It was a long time ago when I saw that so it might be gone.
RTV do a fair bit of the pace stuff so their site might be a good resource for me if I do delve that way.

It certainly seems a diverse range of ideas being exchanged down at the tape, pretty cool.
Enjoy your eve sir!