Value in betting

[wearthefoxhat]

Not every runner will be value as they are not well rated and suggests the price is inflated.

Formlines and all other associated variables will require a trained eye to make an educated guess.
If not careful one could fall into data fitting and gamblers fallacy.
It's great to see you horn in those skills.

The integrity of the data collected could also be a point of concern.E.g the BSP is said to be a bit off.
( it contains some in running data) Not unless you account for that 'error'. Some false positives might creep into the Tissue price.

But of course , experience is always the best teacher and with your hands on approach, it's more likely you've already seen it in your data in one way shape or form .

I personally prefer to turn up and work with what the market is throwing at me , I find myself having very little time to look at the data I've collected, bought or even used
Time constraints leave me with a narrow choice of cold trading and in-play metrics.

A tissue price is in essence a guide too because it's converted from a final rating. This rating is static (based on what is known). It isn't based on the unknown, ie: Actual tactics used in-play, BSP or Going Changes.

The formlines are rated, ie: Class, Finishing Position, Beaten Lengths, Weight carried, Time and weighs up collateral form.

I suppose the experience comes from weighting the key data points and making a judgement call with the help of the excel formulas.

I only use the exchanges and not sites like Bet £3.65.

[wearthefoxhat]

Recent result worked very well too.

Looks like you are identifying significant value on the lay side too?

Yep I can see that too, good spot.

[decomez6]

A tissue price is in essence a guide too because it's converted from a final rating. This rating is static (based on what is known). It isn't based on the unknown, ie: Actual tactics used in-play, BSP or Going Changes

How the selection performed against it's past historical BSPs.? given similar conditions eg field size, distance,class , quality, race participants ( error traps) and race type.
Could that affect the Tissue price?
Or are those data points way too many , which increases the chance of data fitting?

[wearthefoxhat]

A tissue price is in essence a guide too because it's converted from a final rating. This rating is static (based on what is known). It isn't based on the unknown, ie: Actual tactics used in-play, BSP or Going Changes

How the selection performed against it's past historical BSPs.? given similar conditions eg field size, distance,class , quality, race participants ( error traps) and race type.
Could that affect the Tissue price?
Or are those data points way too many , which increases the chance of data fitting?

Yes, it would. Bill Benter added it into his algo.

OddsBB.png

He would of had quite a sophisticated way of adjusting the data to re-align the predictive tissue price though. Nothing wrong with lots of data points.

TBH, rightly or wrongly, I'm keeping things more simple. One approach moving forward, could be factoring in the BSP v Class/Btn Lengths, but I'd be tempted to only use it as an extra indicator instead of using it to adjust the rating and then the resulting tissue price.