Notts v Lancs 27 July 2018.jpg
Vitality Blast 2019
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ThePieThrower
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rendragged
- Posts: 4
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Thanks for sharing megarain. Been spending the day updating a few bits and pieces in preperation, looking forward to (hopefully) a profitable tourney!
Am sorta hoping we can maybe spot strategies and build bafs to apply etc.
Its a give n take world etc.
Its a give n take world etc.
The excel file I couldn't load, has excel macros built in, to test for a certain profit/loss within certain starting/ending slices.
So, for instance, starting in slice 10, look for a lay price of 1,65 .. if its found, lay a nominal figure, and try reverse entry at 25 tick profit, before
end slice 90.
The green highlight is the opening cell .. blue is it looking for a close, and red is the actual close.
In this instance, for 1 loop count, on 3 of the games it would have found entries, and returned profits.
If I set the parameters to 2 loops (once a loop has completed, look for another, more profits were generated.
4 loops also did well, as the last 3 games were swingy etc.
Now, I am ultra crap at building bafs. Does someone want to have a go at creating a baf, that starts at say .. 12 mins after in-play time, to lay the home side (Notts), at 1,65, looking for a 25 ticks profit. If it finds it, reverse the initial bet (green), and then re-do, for a total of 4 cycles.
It will probably involve stored values and signals, and I havent the skills.
Hope this is fairly clear .. if not just ask.
I will send Euler a PM.
So, for instance, starting in slice 10, look for a lay price of 1,65 .. if its found, lay a nominal figure, and try reverse entry at 25 tick profit, before
end slice 90.
The green highlight is the opening cell .. blue is it looking for a close, and red is the actual close.
In this instance, for 1 loop count, on 3 of the games it would have found entries, and returned profits.
If I set the parameters to 2 loops (once a loop has completed, look for another, more profits were generated.
4 loops also did well, as the last 3 games were swingy etc.
Now, I am ultra crap at building bafs. Does someone want to have a go at creating a baf, that starts at say .. 12 mins after in-play time, to lay the home side (Notts), at 1,65, looking for a 25 ticks profit. If it finds it, reverse the initial bet (green), and then re-do, for a total of 4 cycles.
It will probably involve stored values and signals, and I havent the skills.
Hope this is fairly clear .. if not just ask.
I will send Euler a PM.
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ThePieThrower
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ThePieThrower
- Posts: 69
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Someone taking a nice early position
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sionascaig
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Happy to have a go at writing a baf file but not to sure what you mean by slices... Are you looking to set the opening lay at a game specific price or is fixed at 1.65? And is it a named selection of just the fav at that point?megarain wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:25 pm
So, for instance, starting in slice 10, look for a lay price of 1,65 .. if its found, lay a nominal figure, and try reverse entry at 25 tick profit, before
end slice 90.
Now, I am ultra crap at building bafs. Does someone want to have a go at creating a baf, that starts at say .. 12 mins after in-play time, to lay the home side (Notts), at 1,65, looking for a 25 ticks profit. If it finds it, reverse the initial bet (green), and then re-do, for a total of 4 cycles.
It will probably involve stored values and signals, and I havent the skills.
Hope this is fairly clear .. if not just ask.
What I think you are asking for is:
1. at 12 mins in
2. look to lay at 1.65 (if price higher - place bet, if price already lower - ?)
3. if lay bet is taken, set an offset at 25 ticks
3.1 if offset is taken go to 4
3.2 if offset not taken? (close trade for an x% loss?)
4. Place a back bet for profit made at current market price & place an offset at 25 ticks
4.1 if offset is taken repeat 3 for x number of times?
4.2 if offset not taken? (close trade for an x% loss?)
Happy to have a go at writing a baf file but not to sure what you mean by slices... Are you looking to set the opening lay at a game specific price or is fixed at 1.65? And is it a named selection of just the fav at that point?
What I think you are asking for is:
1. at 12 mins in
2. look to lay at 1.65 (if price higher - place bet, if price already lower - ?)
3. if lay bet is taken, set an offset at 25 ticks
3.1 if offset is taken go to 4
3.2 if offset not taken? (close trade for an x% loss?)
4. Place a back bet for profit made at current market price & place an offset at 25 ticks
4.1 if offset is taken repeat 3 for x number of times?
4.2 if offset not taken? (close trade for an x% loss?)
Top
Thx v much.
Its my idea to develop different price entries for different teams. It maybe, Notts at home, normally have an SP of 1.80. Laying 1.65 in the first 100 mins, and reversing the trade, tends to show a profit.
Somerset might have an SP of 1.90. Laying at 1.8 and reversing the trade (15 tick profit), might tend to show a profit.
The excel macro has been designed to split the in-play game time into slices. A T20 is normally 70 mins a side batting, 10-15 min interval and 70 mins of the side chasing the target.
To avoid errors from games being turned in-play wrongly, or mass volatility in last 10 mins of the game, I want to target the rest.
So, if the game time is 150 mins, lets start at 12 min in, up until 100 mins.
For the life of me, I cant understand how to write an automation script that lays at a fixed price and just sits in the system. Offsetting IMHO is
v badly worded. If u try and place a bet and its NOT MATCHED, then it reverses an initial trade that wasn't made. Maybe its me, but that seems v
counter productive.
e.g.
17/07/2019 12:13:26: [G_Auto] : £ 2.27 Lay bet placed on 1. Bushmans Pride at 3.2. Entirely unmatched when it initially reached the market. Ref: 10000 ( Offsetting by 5 ticks with greening. )
17/07/2019 12:13:26: [G_Auto] : £ 0.95 Lay bet placed on 1. Bushmans Pride at 3.1. Entirely unmatched when it initially reached the market. Ref: 10002 ( Offsetting by 5 ticks. )
17/07/2019 12:13:26: [G_Auto] : £ 2.11 Back bet placed on 1. Bushmans Pride at 3.45. Fully matched at 8. Ref: 10003
17/07/2019 12:13:26: [G_Auto] : £ 0.95 Back bet placed on 1. Bushmans Pride at 3.35. Fully matched at 8. Ref: 10005
17/07/2019 12:14:28: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
Anyway, to clarify.
its game specific .. my macros will have said .. lay Notts at 1.65 etc, if SP was above 1.65.
So, just lay Notts.
If the price 12 mins in, is already below 1.65, then lay at that price. Say its 1.53 .. try to record we have laid 1.53, and reverse the trade
at 1.78 (1.53+25 ticks). If this isnt possible, then use 1.65 + 25 ticks.
If a reverse trade has been made, look again for lays at 1.65, for up to 3 complete independent loops.
If a loop is not ended, do nothing, but leave the reverse trade unmatched bet on the system. Its possible it might be matched in the last
portion of the game.
Hope thats clearer. Once we have a basic script, I will add in other criteria to avoid monumental stuff-ups.
Thx
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sionascaig
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Can't test this on cricket atm so put another one together for horses. You can run this on horses (in test mode) to check behaviour and see if its close to what you are looking for..
So two baf files attached:
- Horse Lay Megarain
- Cricket Lay Megarain
Horse Lay Megarain:
- will fix order before the off
- place a lay bet on fav at 92% of SP (30 secs into race) and store SP, 92% of SP and Back Price when bet enters market (you can check this in the log)
- if back price < 92% of SP, it will take that price instead
- once bet is matched, it will place an offset back bet with greening 25 ticks away
- once back bet is matched, it will attempt to place another lay bet at 92% of SP etc
- it will place a maximum of 3 lay bets and should only place a new lay bet once back bet is matched
There are a few safety's included.... time since last suspension etc...
Strangely enough its has made a nice profit over the few races I've run it against...
Cricket Lay Megarain:
- largely the same but with timings along the lines you mentioned
- and an additional safety to check that market is properly formed when lay bet goes in
As mentioned haven't been able to run this so no idea if it all hangs together yet...
So two baf files attached:
- Horse Lay Megarain
- Cricket Lay Megarain
Horse Lay Megarain:
- will fix order before the off
- place a lay bet on fav at 92% of SP (30 secs into race) and store SP, 92% of SP and Back Price when bet enters market (you can check this in the log)
- if back price < 92% of SP, it will take that price instead
- once bet is matched, it will place an offset back bet with greening 25 ticks away
- once back bet is matched, it will attempt to place another lay bet at 92% of SP etc
- it will place a maximum of 3 lay bets and should only place a new lay bet once back bet is matched
There are a few safety's included.... time since last suspension etc...
Strangely enough its has made a nice profit over the few races I've run it against...
Cricket Lay Megarain:
- largely the same but with timings along the lines you mentioned
- and an additional safety to check that market is properly formed when lay bet goes in
As mentioned haven't been able to run this so no idea if it all hangs together yet...
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ThePieThrower
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Not sure if helpful again but just going through more T20 data and its interesting to see each team's choice when winning the Toss. Below shows their decision when winning the Toss at home.
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As there is no Sp for cricket, i have ammended the baf to take Sp as last traded price 5 secs before start time.
I also ammended the delay before a bet can be placed in-play.
Testing on some USA racing, it seems v promising.
I will run (in practice mode), on the Notts game tomorrow.
It seems to work .. v closely to what I envisage etc, so its a great start.
Thx
I also ammended the delay before a bet can be placed in-play.
Testing on some USA racing, it seems v promising.
I will run (in practice mode), on the Notts game tomorrow.
It seems to work .. v closely to what I envisage etc, so its a great start.
Thx
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Last edited by megarain on Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:17 am, edited 2 times in total.
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