Trading Greyhound racing : Dodgy UK Tracks

We've gone to the dogs.
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northbound
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Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:58 am

For the past four months, I collected data about each UK greyhound race and put them all into a spreadsheet. This data includes LTP, BestBack, BestLay prices on Betfair at scheduled start time.

Going through the data, I found 3 tracks where blindly laying dogs priced < 2.80 in morning/afternoon races would have returned a profit every single month since May 2018.

Just a coincidence? Or perhaps a case of tracks where dodgy stuff goes on behind the scenes?

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Euler
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Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:01 am

It was one of the first thins I noted when I first looked at Greyhounds years ago. Individual tracks create remarkably different characteristics.

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northbound
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Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:41 am

Euler wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:01 am
Individual tracks create remarkably different characteristics.
I’d be happy to have a discussion in private about it, with you or anyone who has clues but perhaps not the data to back it up (which I have).

Although I’m sure that you have both, Peter ;)

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Euler
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Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:42 am

I've just restarted on this again after a gap of a few years so looking at collecting different data to understand why. Happy to have a nose at any data if you have it.

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BetScalper
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Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:03 am

I have seen some very strange goings on at Swindon whereby more water is sprayed over the inside lanes compared to the outer lanes.

When this happens I am amazed anything wins from Traps 1 or 2 as it looks like a bog.

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northbound
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Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:52 am

Euler wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:42 am
I've just restarted on this again after a gap of a few years so looking at collecting different data to understand why. Happy to have a nose at any data if you have it.
I'll send you a message later on through the BetAngel website.

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northbound
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Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:58 am

BetScalper wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:03 am
I have seen some very strange goings on at Swindon whereby more water is sprayed over the inside lanes compared to the outer lanes.

When this happens I am amazed anything wins from Traps 1 or 2 as it looks like a bog.
Interesting observation, BetScalper.

If you can observe this more deliberately and write down which days and races it happens, we can then dig through my data to find out if watering played a part.

One of my metrics is the Volume Percentage of each runner, so we could also see whether less money gets bet/traded on Trap 1/2 for these races.

sionascaig
Posts: 166
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:14 pm

northbound wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:58 am
BetScalper wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:03 am
I have seen some very strange goings on at Swindon whereby more water is sprayed over the inside lanes compared to the outer lanes.

When this happens I am amazed anything wins from Traps 1 or 2 as it looks like a bog.
Interesting observation, BetScalper.

If you can observe this more deliberately and write down which days and races it happens, we can then dig through my data to find out if watering played a part.

One of my metrics is the Volume Percentage of each runner, so we could also see whether less money gets bet/traded on Trap 1/2 for these races.
One thing I struggle to understand is why there is so much "false" money matched at greyhounds, e.g. if you look at Volume Per of each runner as the market forms it bears no relation to price... Its quite common to see 100's sometime 1000's matched simultaneously on both sides of the book on relatively high priced runners - any ideas? (just mentioning it as you may want to look at volume percentages after this activity ceases otherwise results potentially skewed)

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northbound
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Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:24 pm

sionascaig wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:14 pm
One thing I struggle to understand is why there is so much "false" money matched at greyhounds, e.g. if you look at Volume Per of each runner as the market forms it bears no relation to price... Its quite common to see 100's sometime 1000's matched simultaneously on both sides of the book on relatively high priced runners - any ideas? (just mentioning it as you may want to look at volume percentages after this activity ceases otherwise results potentially skewed)
My system takes a snapshot of Betfair prices and metrics at scheduled off time. It doesn't know anything about early money, but you're right: if what you mention happens a lot, perhaps Volume Percentage might not be a reliable indicator.

Why this happens? Not sure. Perhaps it's a form of market manipulation targeting people who give a lot of weight to Volume Percentage, so the manipulation is designed to make people back a selection and lower his price, before the real LAYERS come in. Just a theory.

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SeaHorseRacing
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Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:24 pm

northbound wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:58 am
For the past four months, I collected data about each UK greyhound race and put them all into a spreadsheet. This data includes LTP, BestBack, BestLay prices on Betfair at scheduled start time.

Going through the data, I found 3 tracks where blindly laying dogs priced < 2.80 in morning/afternoon races would have returned a profit every single month since May 2018.

Just a coincidence? Or perhaps a case of tracks where dodgy stuff goes on behind the scenes?
Central Park one of them by any chance?

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