I've thought up a rough idea that I might tout to betdaq that I believe could increase liquidity substantially, but I thought I'd ask you guys opinions first. I haven't done exact calculations so this is only a rough idea...
As most of us know, the exchange can't really grow without more punter money. One way that I feel that BD could really give a quick boost to this area, in a way that bookies couldn't is as follows...
Betdaq offer new customers (or maybe even existing customers that haven't used the exchange for a while) a free bet of ridiculous size, something never before offered by a bookmaker or exchange, say £1,000. Only catch is (and this is why it wouldn't cost betdaq much) that in order for the money to become withdrawable, it would have to be turned over many times (in the style of casino bonuses) by many bets, say 50 (so in the case of 1k free bet offer the customer would have to bet 50k with it on the exchange) and there would be a much higher temporary commission on any winning bets from this (say 20%, although I'm sure better mathmaticians than me can work out which level would be needed to ensure that most customers don't just churn winnings over and withdraw 100s courtesy of betdaq although IMO this would still be appetizing enough to give people a chance.)
Assuming that people took up this offer, this would result in a massive jump in liquidity and bets on the exchange. If anyone signing up had to bet up to 50k to make anything out of it (at no risk to them) then if only a few thousand did so it would still result in a massive glut of new activity, and, without wishing to be too cynical, would train people to bet on BD over and over again. Only an exchange could make such an offer really due to the necessity of having commission rates which would save BD from losing a fortune. Would provide a unique and risk free challenge for punters too.
Any thoughts? This only came to me this morning so there may well be holes in it and I'm sure it could be refined quite a bit, but I'd be interested to hear other's opinions....
Gracias
Idea for increasing betdaq volume
Hi
Its good to see ideas to get the betdaq liquidity going, at first read of your post it sounded a great idea although not being a mathematician i was not even going to try and get my head around crunching the numbers for the commission etc for this to work but one though did occur to me after reading and that was it would be my thinking that 50K of bets could be turned over in just a few horse markets pre race, you could place the 1k bet at say 2.40 then scratch or even take a immediate one tick loss at 2.42 which would be about a £10 hedged loss, repeat this 50 times and thats 50k of bets placed and even with the unlikely event of all 50 one tick losses it would still leave a balance of £500 left to withdraw and no commissions on it - thats my conclusion, hopefully though with enough heads together this thread may be able to piece toegther some ideas that can boost betdaq as the bottom line is a increase in betdaq liquidity will be beneficial to all of us in the long term.
Andy
Its good to see ideas to get the betdaq liquidity going, at first read of your post it sounded a great idea although not being a mathematician i was not even going to try and get my head around crunching the numbers for the commission etc for this to work but one though did occur to me after reading and that was it would be my thinking that 50K of bets could be turned over in just a few horse markets pre race, you could place the 1k bet at say 2.40 then scratch or even take a immediate one tick loss at 2.42 which would be about a £10 hedged loss, repeat this 50 times and thats 50k of bets placed and even with the unlikely event of all 50 one tick losses it would still leave a balance of £500 left to withdraw and no commissions on it - thats my conclusion, hopefully though with enough heads together this thread may be able to piece toegther some ideas that can boost betdaq as the bottom line is a increase in betdaq liquidity will be beneficial to all of us in the long term.
Andy
Thanks for your input Andy. I should have made it clearer, when I said turnover bets, I do mean bets that stand, not hedged trading bets, or obviously it wouldn't work too well for BD!
IMO its punter money that is needed on daq more than trader money to build the 'ecosystem' at this point.
IMO its punter money that is needed on daq more than trader money to build the 'ecosystem' at this point.
Sorry for misunderstanding, but without wanting to sound to negative towards your ideas as previosutly stated i fundamentally agree that something is needing to be done for betdaq, the problem i still see with this particular idea is that even with the terms that bets must stand and can only be placed on one side of the book each market (and not traded) IMO 90% of the people who take up this offer will then only arb these bets on betfair anyway as they would do with bookies bounses, in the short term it will increase liquidity but once there 50K has been cycled i think each punter will then just come back off betdaq one by one, i think the key is finding away to make it appeal to punters with a incentive long term and an incentive that does not give people the oppertunity to arb/profit using betfair in the process.
There must be some way or idea out there that can start things moving in the right direction
Andy
There must be some way or idea out there that can start things moving in the right direction
Andy
I think what is needed is a big advertising campaign, though obviously that would cost money.
When betfair first started the message was very clear.
You get better prices on the exchanges (i think up to 20% better prices was often the line used.)
Winners are welcome (which gave the impression that everybody who won money betting, did so on the exchanges.)
When i first started years ago betting was a niche product, not that many people had betting accounts.But during the early days, anybody who did have an online betting account, quickly had a betfair account too. On days like grand national day my phone wouldnt stop ringing with people asking me to put bets on for them, these days i dont get one call, and that is because almost everybody has a betting account now.
Since the advertising ban was lifted about 5 years ago betting has gone crazy. People who you never thought would bet now have multiple online accounts with the likes of 365, paddy power and hills etc. Though when asking around, not many seem to use the exchanges.I spoke to a lad the other day who had accounts with almost every firm who had never even heard of Betdaq.
There is a whole new generation of punters created over the last 5 years that are now very familiar with betting, though unfamiliar with the working of exchanges. This is because nobody wants to advertise the exchanges anymore, all betfair adverts seem to be about the sportsbook, and ive never seen a Betdaq advert on the telly.
The sportsbooks are obvioulsy making more money than ever due to the blanket advertising which they are now allowed and also the development in technology meaning everybody is walking round with a computer in their pocket. That is where betfairs interests seem to lie, and when was the last time you heard one of the big firms moan about the exchanges?
When they first started the exchanges were seen as a threat to the bookmaking industry, they were genuinely taking all their business as people flocked for the better prices available.Now the firms dont seem to care, they are providing them with a free accurate tissue for every event, and they get to pick and choose their punters and are making far more money.
Ladbrokes are in the perfect position to take the exchange market. With an advertising campaign based around those 5 lads in the ladbrokes life. "Generous John fancies Man Utd, though The Professor thinks they will lose. At Betdaq/Ladbrokes we cut out the middle man allowing you to bet against your peers, giving you better prices and allowing you to become the bookmaker".
There is a whole new generation of punters who could be targeted with the original campaign that betfair used to attract so many punters in the start.
Better Prices.
Winners Welcome.
Be the bookmaker.
Though the trouble is everybody seems to have a conflict of interest having both a sportsbook and an exchange. If there was an outright exchange there is a lot of new blood that can be attracted to it, but then why would those firms want to take that money away from their highly profitable sportsbooks? Ive just tried to log on to betfair now and all i get is a message saying the sportsbook is down, it wont even let me load up the exchange. Its a shame there isnt a stand alone exchange anymore, as there is still potential for growth if they can take a proportion of all the new punters who only started betting during the last 5 years or so, and i believe that there are plenty of them.
When betfair first started the message was very clear.
You get better prices on the exchanges (i think up to 20% better prices was often the line used.)
Winners are welcome (which gave the impression that everybody who won money betting, did so on the exchanges.)
When i first started years ago betting was a niche product, not that many people had betting accounts.But during the early days, anybody who did have an online betting account, quickly had a betfair account too. On days like grand national day my phone wouldnt stop ringing with people asking me to put bets on for them, these days i dont get one call, and that is because almost everybody has a betting account now.
Since the advertising ban was lifted about 5 years ago betting has gone crazy. People who you never thought would bet now have multiple online accounts with the likes of 365, paddy power and hills etc. Though when asking around, not many seem to use the exchanges.I spoke to a lad the other day who had accounts with almost every firm who had never even heard of Betdaq.
There is a whole new generation of punters created over the last 5 years that are now very familiar with betting, though unfamiliar with the working of exchanges. This is because nobody wants to advertise the exchanges anymore, all betfair adverts seem to be about the sportsbook, and ive never seen a Betdaq advert on the telly.
The sportsbooks are obvioulsy making more money than ever due to the blanket advertising which they are now allowed and also the development in technology meaning everybody is walking round with a computer in their pocket. That is where betfairs interests seem to lie, and when was the last time you heard one of the big firms moan about the exchanges?
When they first started the exchanges were seen as a threat to the bookmaking industry, they were genuinely taking all their business as people flocked for the better prices available.Now the firms dont seem to care, they are providing them with a free accurate tissue for every event, and they get to pick and choose their punters and are making far more money.
Ladbrokes are in the perfect position to take the exchange market. With an advertising campaign based around those 5 lads in the ladbrokes life. "Generous John fancies Man Utd, though The Professor thinks they will lose. At Betdaq/Ladbrokes we cut out the middle man allowing you to bet against your peers, giving you better prices and allowing you to become the bookmaker".
There is a whole new generation of punters who could be targeted with the original campaign that betfair used to attract so many punters in the start.
Better Prices.
Winners Welcome.
Be the bookmaker.
Though the trouble is everybody seems to have a conflict of interest having both a sportsbook and an exchange. If there was an outright exchange there is a lot of new blood that can be attracted to it, but then why would those firms want to take that money away from their highly profitable sportsbooks? Ive just tried to log on to betfair now and all i get is a message saying the sportsbook is down, it wont even let me load up the exchange. Its a shame there isnt a stand alone exchange anymore, as there is still potential for growth if they can take a proportion of all the new punters who only started betting during the last 5 years or so, and i believe that there are plenty of them.
One obvious way to massively increase Betdaq volume overnight would simply be to introduce a "price rush" so that when a bet is placed on Ladbrokes it would feed into the exchange if the exchange price was better.
Obviously Ladbrokes have very little incentive to do this as it would merely take their huge customer base of mug punters towards a lower margin product. However if this ever happened it would turn the exchange industry upside down.
They could even do this for 6 months or so, pretty much kill off Betfair, then scrap it. Most of the casual punters would just go back to using Labrokes anyway, but Betdaq would hit that oh so important critical mass as more and more traders/exchange punters move from Betfair.
Obviously Ladbrokes have very little incentive to do this as it would merely take their huge customer base of mug punters towards a lower margin product. However if this ever happened it would turn the exchange industry upside down.
They could even do this for 6 months or so, pretty much kill off Betfair, then scrap it. Most of the casual punters would just go back to using Labrokes anyway, but Betdaq would hit that oh so important critical mass as more and more traders/exchange punters move from Betfair.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Nice idea can't see it working - find a market where you can back something that can't win. Get your mate to offer the other side.
You lose the bet - your mate gets the winnings less commission of say 5%, leaving a net £950 to split between you.
Rinse and repeat until Betdaq are broke.
The worse thing to ever happen to exchanges was Betfair going public and it becoming about the quarterly profit. Look at their share price since the Sports Book was launched - it didn't get to where it is today thanks to the exchange.
You lose the bet - your mate gets the winnings less commission of say 5%, leaving a net £950 to split between you.
Rinse and repeat until Betdaq are broke.
The worse thing to ever happen to exchanges was Betfair going public and it becoming about the quarterly profit. Look at their share price since the Sports Book was launched - it didn't get to where it is today thanks to the exchange.
Thanks for your input guys.
Andy, I don't know if you saw but the commission level for this on winning bets would be much higher than normal. Also, the amount of turns required would mean that it would be impossible for you and a mate to rinse betdaq.
Essentially in my mind at the moment the points raised by people here are probably positive to the idea, as it gives the illusion that it might be easy to make money from, but wouldn't be (at least if my maths is correct.)
At 20% special commission rate and 50 turns required before withdrawing, it would be very difficult to make money from it in practice?
I agree about how Ladbrokes could overnight transform things by cylcing money onto the exchange, but I suppose we all know that's unlikely.
Anyone have any other ideas or reasons my idea wouldn't work?
Andy, I don't know if you saw but the commission level for this on winning bets would be much higher than normal. Also, the amount of turns required would mean that it would be impossible for you and a mate to rinse betdaq.
Essentially in my mind at the moment the points raised by people here are probably positive to the idea, as it gives the illusion that it might be easy to make money from, but wouldn't be (at least if my maths is correct.)
At 20% special commission rate and 50 turns required before withdrawing, it would be very difficult to make money from it in practice?
I agree about how Ladbrokes could overnight transform things by cylcing money onto the exchange, but I suppose we all know that's unlikely.
Anyone have any other ideas or reasons my idea wouldn't work?
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
hgodden wrote: Andy, I don't know if you saw but the commission level for this on winning bets would be much higher than normal. Yes I did see that, but that applies to the person who has taken out the offer. As an existing customer there is no way I would allow my rate of commission to be increased as I would just be going about my normal trading. It just so happens I win it from one of these new customers, not that I would be aware that I was trading against such a customer. From my view point I have just traded as normal.
Also, the amount of turns required would mean that it would be impossible for you and a mate to rinse betdaq. As per my previous point, I don't know that my winnings are from a new customer, it is just a normal win for me and as such I should be able to withdraw as normal. The turns could only apply to the new customer not existing customers.
At 20% special commission rate and 50 turns required before withdrawing, it would be very difficult to make money from it in practice? Yes for new customers but just loose to an existing customer with no such restrictions and then split it.
I think it's obvious now that Breon has steered Betfair into the position where they have their snouts in the trough and are keen to chase margin.
That opens up a massive door for the peer to peer concept. It's really odd to see Uber, AirBnB and the like ripping up the rule books in the new sharing economy but still see punters getting completely and utterly fleeced where there is no need to! So bloody frustrating!
That opens up a massive door for the peer to peer concept. It's really odd to see Uber, AirBnB and the like ripping up the rule books in the new sharing economy but still see punters getting completely and utterly fleeced where there is no need to! So bloody frustrating!
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Groovyelms
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- Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 7:42 am
Ha Ha the Ladbrooks life Lads, god I hate that ad.. should be titled "look sat these f...wits losing every single day of there stupid dumb gambling lives"" somes up the industry perfectly..