What I've learned

[Llosgi]

Hi everyone

I thought I'd share something of what has been my journey to that prized consistency over the last year in my attempt to be profitable in sports trading. To be honest I have nearly given up a number of times, finding the markets ruthless and merciless (which they are). But over time I have found a way to make steady and reliable gains. They are cautious and risk averse (I've been burnt too many times and this is now imprinted in my forehead: "don't go in running". Really.

So for what it's worth, here are my tips for newbies, earned in blood but worth it in my humble opinion.

1. Select a horse race and check the charts of the top 2 horses. Note whether they are relatively stable in price or whether there is more volatility. Select which horse to trade.

2. Start with a bank of £10.

3. Stake to a liability of £5.

4. On the ladders, take a look at where the current price point is. Place 2 £5 back bets a few ticks higher than the current price, ideally where there is a gap or at least a low-ish amount of money available. So if the last traded price was 6.0-6.2, you might place your orders, say, at 6.8 and 7.4.

5. Do the same on the lay side -place two lays each for a liability of £5. (This means your actual stake will be lower than £5 unless you are placing a lay order at odds lower than 2.0 when it will be higher). Place them a few ticks below current price where the amount queuing is small(ish).

6. Now wait to see which way the market moves- you have bets queued both sides so you don't mind which way it goes.

7. As soon as a stake is taken, green up 1 tick lower/ higher, depending on which bet was taken. You can do this with the tick off set tool, but I find it better to do it manually. As soon as the bet is taken, fire in a green up bet one tick in the other direction. This works because typically odds move in an oscillating way e.g, your order at 6.8 has just been taken, and now the trading range briefly moves between 6.8 and 6.6, nicely picking up your offset green.

8 Reassess the market and repeat, until about 1.5 minutes before race starts.

9. Then green up (or red up). Get out. Whatever. Do not , I repeat, do not ever go in running. Take the small managed loss on the chin if necessary.

10. Move to the next race and carry on.

If you are lucky you may make 4p - 50p per race with a bank this size. But don't forget, if you can make 15% profit on one day (£1.50 over 15 races , say), tomorrow you will have £11.50 and if you keep compounding at that rate in 30 days you will have around a £1000.

I know this probably seems very pedestrian, but I bear the scars of more ambitious schemes and this one has worked very well indeed for me.

Thanks to all for a supportive community

Cheers
Llosgi

[cybernet69]

7. As soon as a stake is taken green up 1 tick lower/ higher, depending on which bet was taken.

As that point aren't you automatically in a negative position ?

[Llosgi]

Most often you can green up one tick below ( if a back bet matched) or one tick higher ( in the case of a lay bet). This is because odds move typically in jumps of one tick - I mean they oscillate at that level mostly more than once. Obviously in a break out situation it can run away and your tick offset doesn't match. If it is a case of up to 5 ticks movement I wait, as it usually comes back up or down, but if the trend is clear and a real break out occurs I red up quickly and regroup.

I know some people use this trading style this way: they use the same staking plan as outlined above but maintain a bigger bank in reserve so in the above example, once the market was approaching 6.6, they fire in a lay order of a £5 stake at 6.6 which gets matched first and then the earlier back bet at 6.8 gets picked up right away (hopefully), greening up later.

I don't do this as it increases my liability exposure. I find the system outlined above works fine but I have to pay close attention.

[ShaunWhite]

1. .. check the charts of the top 2 horses. Note whether they are relatively stable in price or whether there is more volatility. Select which horse to trade.

What sort of thing are you looking for here? The most stable?

[Llosgi]

When looking at the charts I am considering the direction of travel so far- is a horse starting to drift or shorten, what is the volume, what is volatility like etc. Personally, for this strategy, out of two horses I would favour the slightly more volatile one as you are looking for a bit of movement, but that said, even if a horse has been flat as a pancake for a while, that is no definite predictor of the last 10 minutes when things usually liven up a bit (less so if it's Cheltenham where it can be very flat). If there is not much difference in trend in the charts and if volume is similar, I would tend to choose the horse trading at a higher price as the tick differential would be more beneficial e.g. I'd choose a horse trading between 3 and 4 over a horse in the 1.80-1.60 range.

[ShaunWhite]

I would tend to choose the horse trading at a higher price as the tick differential would be more beneficial e.g. I'd choose a horse trading between 3 and 4 over a horse in the 1.80-1.60 range.

Thanks.
re that last bit, you could just vary your stake?

[Llosgi]

You're right. Here in this strategy description I was describing turning £10 into £1000 so during this episode my stake size was defined by the challenge. But generally speaking what you say is correct of course.

[Bluesky]

Hi Llosgi thanks for sharing. Did you come up with this strategy entirely on your own, or did you adapt it from a strategy you got from somewhere else?

The reason I ask is that I have seen some trading videos of a guy from the North West, Manchester area I think (don't know his name) that shows a strategy very similar (not quite the same) to this one you describe.

I also think I have read a post on this site somewhere where the BA team will sometimes get their students to place back and lay orders above and below the market price as you have done, and then get the students to manage the trade no matter which order is taken. Perhaps that's were the initial idea came from?

[cybernet69]

Hi Llosgi thanks for sharing. Did you come up with this strategy entirely on your own, or did you adapt it from a strategy you got from somewhere else?

The reason I ask is that I have seen some trading videos of a guy from the North West, Manchester area I think (don't know his name) that shows a strategy very similar (not quite the same) to this one you describe.

I also think I have read a post on this site somewhere where the BA team will sometimes get their students to place back and lay orders above and below the market price as you have done, and then get the students to manage the trade no matter which order is taken. Perhaps that's were the initial idea came from?

That strategy is fairly old and someone I know automated it using other software. Sadly he was unwilling to share.

[jimibt]

Hi Llosgi thanks for sharing. Did you come up with this strategy entirely on your own, or did you adapt it from a strategy you got from somewhere else?

The reason I ask is that I have seen some trading videos of a guy from the North West, Manchester area I think (don't know his name) that shows a strategy very similar (not quite the same) to this one you describe.

I also think I have read a post on this site somewhere where the BA team will sometimes get their students to place back and lay orders above and below the market price as you have done, and then get the students to manage the trade no matter which order is taken. Perhaps that's were the initial idea came from?

That strategy is fairly old and someone I know automated it using other software. Sadly he was unwilling to share.

interestingly, i've seen this used in some YT video as well. In the useage i saw, the actual lay/back were placed on the same runner. I guess by averages, this will work 50% of the time. the trick would be to exit as close to scratch on the losses and be slightly more cavalier on the trending trade. never tried it but might be interesting.

[Niko]

Seems similar to Caen Berry strategy, could be mistaken??

[cybernet69]

Hi Llosgi thanks for sharing. Did you come up with this strategy entirely on your own, or did you adapt it from a strategy you got from somewhere else?

The reason I ask is that I have seen some trading videos of a guy from the North West, Manchester area I think (don't know his name) that shows a strategy very similar (not quite the same) to this one you describe.

I also think I have read a post on this site somewhere where the BA team will sometimes get their students to place back and lay orders above and below the market price as you have done, and then get the students to manage the trade no matter which order is taken. Perhaps that's were the initial idea came from?

That strategy is fairly old and someone I know automated it using other software. Sadly he was unwilling to share.

interestingly, i've seen this used in some YT video as well. In the useage i saw, the actual lay/back were placed on the same runner. I guess by averages, this will work 50% of the time. the trick would be to exit as close to scratch on the losses and be slightly more cavalier on the trending trade. never tried it but might be interesting.

Yes, same runner, usually the favourite.

It goes something like this.

- Look up the ladder (Reversed) and see where there is not allot of money waiting and place a back bet there.
- Look down the ladder (Reversed) and see where there is not allot of money waiting and place a lay bet there.
- Manage both bets by seeing which way the odds are going. When it gets within 1 tick of your trades above then enter a lay or back bet.
- Scratch straightaway if the odds don't move up or down to take your original trades.
- Cancel any unmatched trades and repeat the process.

You do have to be careful that you don't pick a selection whereby it suddenly takes off like a rocket. So best to pick a selection within a 10 tick trading range and not less than 5 minutes to go as you don't want to get stung by on-course bookies or the 'Mad Bomber'

It does work rather well but you have to concentrate and be ready with your mouse to place the counter trade and/or scratch asap. With practice I got it down to around 60% profitable trades, 30% scratch trades and 10% loss trades.

The ideal would be to fully automate it but its the scratch trades that is difficult, well, it is with BA anyway. Excel could be the answer.

Mucking about and waiting for trades to get matched by timeframe is not a good idea as you will get stung.

Personally, i think its better to manually do it as then you get a feel for how quickly the odds are moving and if money is getting matched quickly or slowly etc. Plus you LEARN how the market works.

[Llosgi]

Thanks for comments. I make no claim that this is an entirely original strategy- I have studied and researched and you tubed a huge amount in My efforts to achieve consistency, and placing bets above or below price is not new. But I share it only as I find it makes my scalping effective and that has been a great relief after many other strategies have been less reliable.

[cybernet69]

Thanks for comments. I make no claim that this is an entirely original strategy- I have studied and researched and you tubed a huge amount in My efforts to achieve consistency, and placing bets above or below price is not new. But I share it only as I find it makes my scalping effective and that has been a great relief after many other strategies have been less reliable.

+1

[Niko]

Could easily be automated in BA if we could set signals on specific odds