Hi
I am still playing with toy money, and doing ok although without actually placing the real cash you dont know if your back or lay would actually be matched... Anyway to my question...
I read somewhere about lay the draw and it being old hat and a risky bet if you choose a 0-0 game, not being able to get out without a loss. Then using excell and playing with the figures I came up with this and wondered if I am barking up the wrong tree so to speak.
Say I was to lay the draw in the Reading - West Brom game today (Sat 13th Feb) for £200 at odds of 3.5 giving me a liability of £500, should it end a draw.
Then place a back bet of £42 in the correct score market on 0-0 at odds of 13 giving me a return of £504 if it ended 0-0 (thus £4.00 profit)
Then if and when the 1st goal goes in I back the draw for £111.11 at odds of 5.5 giving me nothing if the game ends a draw, but £88.88 if the game ends not a draw.
Take the £42 0-0 back bet (now lost due to the goal) away from the £88.88 secured from the back the draw bet leaves a profit of £46.88..
Am I correct here or have I got my figures wrong!!
just to sum up
lay the draw £200 @ 3.5 (-500)
back the correct score 0-0 £42 @ 13 (+504)
if no goal is scored £4 profit
if a goal is scored back the draw £111.11 @ 5.5 (88.88)-(42)=46.88
I am guessing on the 5.5 after the first goal as I havent watched the market on that yet, but perhaps you guys could give an indication as to the odds which would be realistic after the first goal.
By the way the match odds are
Reading 3.05 (home)
West Brom 2.56 (away)
Draw 3.5
I'm not to concerned about greening up as I have the 'draw' covered if it ends up 0-0 (a small profit)
And prefer to keep all the profit on the game ending anything but a draw (1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 2-1, etc) by backing the draw when a goal has gone in, and if my working out is correct the profit should be enough to absorb the 0-0 back bet and still produce a profit.
I bet I have screwed up the figures somewhere, it cant be that easy!!
Have I found a golden nuggett
Hi,
There are a couple of possible problems because the back odds you can get on the draw depend on the timing of the first goal and the team that scores it. In other words, sometimes your maths will be about right, other times it wont be.
Timing matters because you get a smaller odds change in the early period of the game than, for example, in the last 20 minutes. If there are 90 seconds to go when a goal is scored, the draw odds will fly out, whereas if a goal is scored in the first 90 seconds, they dont change as drastically. I think they are unlikely to go as far as 5.5 in the Reading game unless the first goal comes quite late.
Equally, if the underdog scores, the draw odds change less. Where you have a strong favourite the odds on a draw actually get more likely. Here, that wont happen, but you will get a smaller change if Reading score than if West Brom do.
Soccer Mystic is great for this sort of thing. Have a play with goals at different times and for different teams and you will see what happens to the odds. It is often possible to come up with a plan for each match which takes these possibilities into account. But, the odd chestnut is that one single plan very rarely (probably never) works for all games.
There are a couple of possible problems because the back odds you can get on the draw depend on the timing of the first goal and the team that scores it. In other words, sometimes your maths will be about right, other times it wont be.
Timing matters because you get a smaller odds change in the early period of the game than, for example, in the last 20 minutes. If there are 90 seconds to go when a goal is scored, the draw odds will fly out, whereas if a goal is scored in the first 90 seconds, they dont change as drastically. I think they are unlikely to go as far as 5.5 in the Reading game unless the first goal comes quite late.
Equally, if the underdog scores, the draw odds change less. Where you have a strong favourite the odds on a draw actually get more likely. Here, that wont happen, but you will get a smaller change if Reading score than if West Brom do.
Soccer Mystic is great for this sort of thing. Have a play with goals at different times and for different teams and you will see what happens to the odds. It is often possible to come up with a plan for each match which takes these possibilities into account. But, the odd chestnut is that one single plan very rarely (probably never) works for all games.
Ive messed about with this & thought id found a golden nugget after putting the scenarios in to soccer mystic but the odds are way out on mystic ( or were when I was looking at it ). Once someone scores the odds dont shift enough to get out at a profit.
Hi UKJamie,
Yes I was looking at this same thing, But just reading your post your not looking to trade out is that correct.? If this was the case what would happen if it the game ended 1-1 2-2 3-3. You would lose your £500 plus the loss already on back on the 0-0. Which could be a total of £542. You really have to be looking at greening up once a goal goes in or take the gamble and hope it does not end in a draw. If the weak side score first the odds will not move much as people expect the strong tema to come back and score.
Somebody posted this site http://www.dectech.org/football_sites/f ... /index.php
The system I am looking at, is looking for a match that is under 24% chance of draw with a strong clear percentage of a win, laying the draw, backing 0-0 maybe even 0-1,1-0, Depending if the odds are right with the idea of greening up after a goal.
I haven't tried this yet as my wife has just given birth last night so, I will be trying this at some point.
Cheers
Jimmy
Yes I was looking at this same thing, But just reading your post your not looking to trade out is that correct.? If this was the case what would happen if it the game ended 1-1 2-2 3-3. You would lose your £500 plus the loss already on back on the 0-0. Which could be a total of £542. You really have to be looking at greening up once a goal goes in or take the gamble and hope it does not end in a draw. If the weak side score first the odds will not move much as people expect the strong tema to come back and score.
Somebody posted this site http://www.dectech.org/football_sites/f ... /index.php
The system I am looking at, is looking for a match that is under 24% chance of draw with a strong clear percentage of a win, laying the draw, backing 0-0 maybe even 0-1,1-0, Depending if the odds are right with the idea of greening up after a goal.
I haven't tried this yet as my wife has just given birth last night so, I will be trying this at some point.
Cheers
Jimmy
Hey Jimmy congratulations on your new baby!!!Jimmy wrote:Hi UKJamie,
I haven't tried this yet as my wife has just given birth last night so, I will be trying this at some point.
Cheers
Jimmy
If I were you I would be getting some Z's in before they arrive back from hospital!
Hi thanks for the advice guys and congrats on your happy news Jimmy.. (theres dedication for you, wifes giving birth but takes time to answer my post 
)
I was looking to trade out just not equal across the board, trading out after the goal @5.5ish, leaving all of the profit on the lay side and a break even if it runs to a draw at the end.
I certainly would not leave it open, thats why I am backing the 0-0 before the game, and then back the draw if a goal goes in. I was just playing with not equalising the profit (greening up).
I wonder what the odds change is in a close game (oddswise) like the Reading game, because even a very small change 3.5 to 4.2 gives enough to get out without loss on the above game and prices (edited)
)I was looking to trade out just not equal across the board, trading out after the goal @5.5ish, leaving all of the profit on the lay side and a break even if it runs to a draw at the end.
I certainly would not leave it open, thats why I am backing the 0-0 before the game, and then back the draw if a goal goes in. I was just playing with not equalising the profit (greening up).
I wonder what the odds change is in a close game (oddswise) like the Reading game, because even a very small change 3.5 to 4.2 gives enough to get out without loss on the above game and prices (edited)
Last edited by UKJamie on Sat Feb 13, 2010 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
Jamie, We can probably back test elements of it and look. We have a massive database of matches but as suggested Soccer Mystic will give you an approximation that you can use to see if you are on the right track. Staking is what most people get wrong when deploying this sort of strategy. In theory, on average, the market should be out equal on things but are never quite that easy and if you get your staking wrong that throws things out as well.
Thank for the heads up BA
Unfortunately I live in Turkey where gambling is illegal, and as a result I cannot sign up a Betfair account, so couldn't use BA or Soccer Mystic anyway.
The only resource I have is looking at the Betfair website and pretend betting, so I would not know if my bets would have been matched or not anyway.
The reason I am working on this is because I am probably returning to the UK sometime this year and then I will be able to use the software and open account etc, and want to get a strategy worked out ready for it.
What do you mean about back testing, could you run a model to see if it works historically?
My theory is I'm not looking to make money whatever the result (green up) but always leave the profit 100% on the lay side with a break even if it is eventually a draw. Then on those matches where the odds did go to 5.5+ there would be good profits to be bagged.
I am new to this but on paper it does look viable?
Unfortunately I live in Turkey where gambling is illegal, and as a result I cannot sign up a Betfair account, so couldn't use BA or Soccer Mystic anyway.
The only resource I have is looking at the Betfair website and pretend betting, so I would not know if my bets would have been matched or not anyway.
The reason I am working on this is because I am probably returning to the UK sometime this year and then I will be able to use the software and open account etc, and want to get a strategy worked out ready for it.
What do you mean about back testing, could you run a model to see if it works historically?
My theory is I'm not looking to make money whatever the result (green up) but always leave the profit 100% on the lay side with a break even if it is eventually a draw. Then on those matches where the odds did go to 5.5+ there would be good profits to be bagged.
I am new to this but on paper it does look viable?
Jamie,
I agree with Oggy. For in-play trading on football you have to take into account time decay (and Soccer Mystic is very useful for this) and you also have to take into account what is happening on the pitch. In the example game above, if West Brom are dominating the game with many chances on goal but Reading score a goal completely against the run of play, then the draw odds may well tighten rather than lengthen (depending on the timing). Punters/ traders who bet in-play are generally watching/ following the game and the draw price will reflect this.
I would say that an in-play football strategy based entirely on the pre-KO prices is likely to fail.
I agree with Oggy. For in-play trading on football you have to take into account time decay (and Soccer Mystic is very useful for this) and you also have to take into account what is happening on the pitch. In the example game above, if West Brom are dominating the game with many chances on goal but Reading score a goal completely against the run of play, then the draw odds may well tighten rather than lengthen (depending on the timing). Punters/ traders who bet in-play are generally watching/ following the game and the draw price will reflect this.
I would say that an in-play football strategy based entirely on the pre-KO prices is likely to fail.
Hi Jamie,
Haha, No I was there for the birth and yes it took quite a while being a 10lb 1oz baby. They have to stay in hospital for a few days and thought I would have a quick look at what was on the forum.
Anyway Bet Angel If you can I would be intrested in the results of the back test.
Cheers
Jimmy
Haha, No I was there for the birth and yes it took quite a while being a 10lb 1oz baby. They have to stay in hospital for a few days and thought I would have a quick look at what was on the forum.
Anyway Bet Angel If you can I would be intrested in the results of the back test.
Cheers
Jimmy
I tried it last night on Man City v Stoke
£100 layed at 3.35 draw (£235 liability)
I added 5% onto this for commission when deciding on Correct Score stakes
£20 backed at 13.5 0-0 draw
Man City scored after 7mins & greened up on the draw
£44.08 at 7.6
£53.12 profit (after commission) on the draw
Minus £20 Correct Score loss
£33.12 Total Profit
£100 layed at 3.35 draw (£235 liability)
I added 5% onto this for commission when deciding on Correct Score stakes
£20 backed at 13.5 0-0 draw
Man City scored after 7mins & greened up on the draw
£44.08 at 7.6
£53.12 profit (after commission) on the draw
Minus £20 Correct Score loss
£33.12 Total Profit
Le Tiss
What would you have done if Stoke had scored first? You would have lost your £20 0-0 bet and you would be looking at a red on your LTD position. If you had then held on and the final score had been 1-1, then you would have lost £255.
In all these scenarios you have to bear in mind your maximum loss and your potential gain. In the above example you are risking £255 to win £33 so you are effectively backing an 8-1 on shot. As always when backing at heavy odds on, you will win most of the time but when you lose, you will lose big.
What would you have done if Stoke had scored first? You would have lost your £20 0-0 bet and you would be looking at a red on your LTD position. If you had then held on and the final score had been 1-1, then you would have lost £255.
In all these scenarios you have to bear in mind your maximum loss and your potential gain. In the above example you are risking £255 to win £33 so you are effectively backing an 8-1 on shot. As always when backing at heavy odds on, you will win most of the time but when you lose, you will lose big.
I certainly wouldn't have held onOllie LJ wrote:Le Tiss
What would you have done if Stoke had scored first? You would have lost your £20 0-0 bet and you would be looking at a red on your LTD position. If you had then held on and the final score had been 1-1, then you would have lost £255.
In all these scenarios you have to bear in mind your maximum loss and your potential gain. In the above example you are risking £255 to win £33 so you are effectively backing an 8-1 on shot. As always when backing at heavy odds on, you will win most of the time but when you lose, you will lose big.
You're dead right, there will be scenarios where this bet will go against you
I just fancied trying it last night & everything went my way
I suppose it's like all potential systems, you have to look at the long-term - will the profits outweigh occassional losses?
Time will tell if BA run tests