If anybody has joined me a few weeks ago we are now at the half way stage. To recap I wiped the slate clean started off with my last £96 and was trying to trade for a tick starting with £2 stakes pre race. (This does not mean I put only 1 trade on at a time I will enter several positions if I am confident (or otherwise) about my read of the market.) I have increased stakes now up to £5.
If I do not feel right on the day I will not trade. I am only trading for 2.5 hours max. If I do not see any positions I will not trade that race.
I know nothing about horses and I do not watch whats going on.
I am trying to identify why I am a losing trader.
My key weaknesses are nerves, not believing in myself to either cut my losses short or keep my profits running.
I have traded 118 races: 112 in profit, 4 scratched, 2 losses.
However the interesting thing is the number of entered and exited positions 1072! It seems like I get into a mess about 1/3 of the time. So I need to work on this over the next couple of weeks.
On the positive 2/3 of the time I am reading the market correctly. Although its the 1/3 of the time where my bank is at risk due to my psycho problems!
1/2 Way There - Results - For Anybody whos interested
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2046
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Looking good...keep up the hard work, it'll pay off in the end! 
looks impressive ba.. how you getting on with higher stakes?
my problem is letting losses spiral..and then going in play..
today.. 15 races.. 13 in profit, 1 scratched, 1 loss..
Down -170.98. obviously implementing stops is what i need to focus on. every time i let them go in play I lose.
Market Profit/loss (GBP)
Horse Racing / Catt 4th May : 7f Mdn Stks 32.41
Horse Racing / Catt 4th May : 2m Hcap 2.29
Horse Racing / Extr 4th May : 2m1f Mdn Hrd 0
Horse Racing / Newc 4th May : 7f Hcap 1.1
Horse Racing / Bath 4th May : 5f Hcap 4.63
Horse Racing / Bath 4th May : 2m1f Hcap 23.63
Horse Racing / Newc 4th May : 1m2f Mdn Stks 0.02
Horse Racing / Bath 4th May : 1m Hcap 1.17
Horse Racing / Fake 4th May : 2m7f Nov Hrd 5.83
Horse Racing / Newc 4th May : 7f Hcap 0.4
Horse Racing / Bath 4th May : 5f Sell Stks 5.71
Horse Racing / Newc 4th May : 1m4f Hcap 0.05
Horse Racing / Bath 4th May : 5f Mdn Stks -270
Horse Racing / Fake 4th May : 2m Sell Hrd 6.76
Horse Racing / Newc 4th May : 5f Mdn Stks 15.02
my problem is letting losses spiral..and then going in play..
today.. 15 races.. 13 in profit, 1 scratched, 1 loss..
Down -170.98. obviously implementing stops is what i need to focus on. every time i let them go in play I lose.
Market Profit/loss (GBP)
Horse Racing / Catt 4th May : 7f Mdn Stks 32.41
Horse Racing / Catt 4th May : 2m Hcap 2.29
Horse Racing / Extr 4th May : 2m1f Mdn Hrd 0
Horse Racing / Newc 4th May : 7f Hcap 1.1
Horse Racing / Bath 4th May : 5f Hcap 4.63
Horse Racing / Bath 4th May : 2m1f Hcap 23.63
Horse Racing / Newc 4th May : 1m2f Mdn Stks 0.02
Horse Racing / Bath 4th May : 1m Hcap 1.17
Horse Racing / Fake 4th May : 2m7f Nov Hrd 5.83
Horse Racing / Newc 4th May : 7f Hcap 0.4
Horse Racing / Bath 4th May : 5f Sell Stks 5.71
Horse Racing / Newc 4th May : 1m4f Hcap 0.05
Horse Racing / Bath 4th May : 5f Mdn Stks -270
Horse Racing / Fake 4th May : 2m Sell Hrd 6.76
Horse Racing / Newc 4th May : 5f Mdn Stks 15.02
That's beyond disastrous mate
Do you remember the film 'Hollow Man'?
There's a scene in the film where Kevin Bacon swings back on his chair and notices 'You should be working' taped to the ceiling.
When I started trading & made the same mistakes as everyone else, I adopted this philosophy. I had 'NEVER let a bad trade go in play' pinned to the wall above my computer desk for ages. I only took it down once the urges had escaped me
Do you remember the film 'Hollow Man'?
There's a scene in the film where Kevin Bacon swings back on his chair and notices 'You should be working' taped to the ceiling.
When I started trading & made the same mistakes as everyone else, I adopted this philosophy. I had 'NEVER let a bad trade go in play' pinned to the wall above my computer desk for ages. I only took it down once the urges had escaped me
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mikesalter
- Posts: 40
- Joined: Sun Mar 07, 2010 1:30 pm
When I look at the big losses this appears to be Lay first then bet second, is this correct? I must admit that being at the early stage and lacking confidence I don't currently lay first above 2 because that surely exposes you to more risk the does backing first. I am working on the principle that if I bet first it has to go out a full 1.0 for me to loose more than my stake and once greened I would still be in a reasonable position. Have I got the maths of this wrong? Do I really need to ever take a position where I lay first when all I am doing is learning to predict the market rather than make profit. I can see that you double the [profit opportunities if you work from both positions but surely the increase in risk of a big loss from lay first makes that one for the experienced.
For those whose trading style is 1-tick scalping, I think I’ve seen several instances where the majority of their trades are small winners, but unfortunately “a few big losses” end up negating all their gains. The logical conclusion that most seem to reach is: “well, if I can just limit the SIZE of my handful of losses, then I’ve easily got a net profit”.
However, I don’t think it’s quite that simple. The problem is that when all goes perfectly to plan, a trade makes a 1-tick profit. If things don’t go exactly to plan, but still turn out well, then it probably means that the market turns against you for a tick or two (or more), but retraces eventually and you are able to get out at break-even or with a 1-tick profit. Or you double down (or triple down) and are eventually able to exit the trades via a smaller retracement (rather than requiring the market to fully retrace back to the original entry point). The problem however is that every so often, those moves that go against you for a tick or two (or 3 or 4) don’t always turn around, and before you know it, you’re 8 or 10+ ticks away from your entry point.
If you were to adapt your strategy so that you get out sooner before 2- or 3-tick moves against you become 8 or 10+, then it also means exiting trades at a loss that would have actually become profitable. So in the course of trying to limit your large losses, your strike rate will go down significantly.
In ba1000’s case specifically, he/she has a very high strike rate, but often goes in-play and occasionally suffers a massive loss. So I’m guessing that a lot of the “profitable” trades were actually ones where he/she got out successfully in-play and avoided eating a sizeable pre-market loss. In fact, it sounds like he/she will only take a loss on a race if the race ends and it is simply not allowed to trade that race any longer.
To me it’s similar in probability terms to using a strategy of laying massive underdogs. If you lay 1000:1 runners, then your strike rate will be extremely high, but a single loss will be mortifying. If you change it to start laying 50:1 underdogs instead, you will limit the absolute size of your losses, but the number of losses will go up significantly. In sum, I think a high strike rate of winning trades to losing trades may be misleading many into thinking they have a potentially winning strategy if they are able to make “just a few tweaks”, when in actuality the expected value in the long run probably remains unchanged.
However, I don’t think it’s quite that simple. The problem is that when all goes perfectly to plan, a trade makes a 1-tick profit. If things don’t go exactly to plan, but still turn out well, then it probably means that the market turns against you for a tick or two (or more), but retraces eventually and you are able to get out at break-even or with a 1-tick profit. Or you double down (or triple down) and are eventually able to exit the trades via a smaller retracement (rather than requiring the market to fully retrace back to the original entry point). The problem however is that every so often, those moves that go against you for a tick or two (or 3 or 4) don’t always turn around, and before you know it, you’re 8 or 10+ ticks away from your entry point.
If you were to adapt your strategy so that you get out sooner before 2- or 3-tick moves against you become 8 or 10+, then it also means exiting trades at a loss that would have actually become profitable. So in the course of trying to limit your large losses, your strike rate will go down significantly.
In ba1000’s case specifically, he/she has a very high strike rate, but often goes in-play and occasionally suffers a massive loss. So I’m guessing that a lot of the “profitable” trades were actually ones where he/she got out successfully in-play and avoided eating a sizeable pre-market loss. In fact, it sounds like he/she will only take a loss on a race if the race ends and it is simply not allowed to trade that race any longer.
To me it’s similar in probability terms to using a strategy of laying massive underdogs. If you lay 1000:1 runners, then your strike rate will be extremely high, but a single loss will be mortifying. If you change it to start laying 50:1 underdogs instead, you will limit the absolute size of your losses, but the number of losses will go up significantly. In sum, I think a high strike rate of winning trades to losing trades may be misleading many into thinking they have a potentially winning strategy if they are able to make “just a few tweaks”, when in actuality the expected value in the long run probably remains unchanged.
Sorry, I think I may have confused some of the issues between ba1000 and harrysdog, but my basic point remains the same: It may not be a simple matter of limiting the size of losses, making better use of stop losses, etc. Properly preventing those types of huge losses from *ever* happening is going to mean a significant drop in one's strike rate (% of profitable trades).
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
That is where experience comes in. As you learn how to trade better you learn how to read the market and the trades which you can hold onto as the move against you is only short term and those trades you need to cut out of quickly as they will not work out.nomadic wrote:If you were to adapt your strategy so that you get out sooner before 2- or 3-tick moves against you become 8 or 10+, then it also means exiting trades at a loss that would have actually become profitable. So in the course of trying to limit your large losses, your strike rate will go down significantly.
New traders often seem to think that you must trade to a set of rigid rules. Once you learn that there is no set of rigid rules that must be followed you will then be able to see the larger picture of trading and that you need to be very fluid in your decision making and each and every trade is slightly different or significantly different and as such require you to approach it in a different way.
New traders need to learn with experience that sometimes you take the 1 tick profits/losses but other times you don't. How you learn to do that in my opinion is very complicated and can not be put into words bar one simple word - experience.
Sorry team missed people were commenting on my thread!
Well its then end of the line for me! As predicted you can NOT hope to get away with ultimately relying on the IN PLAY back up trade!
As I said 2/3 of my trades were text book examples - the other 1/3 is where I am in a mess! I can not teach anybody how to be a successful trader - I am a lossing trader - I can show you how to lose.
I am a charlatan - even gamblers would not even want me to call myself a gambler - let alone even calling myself a "trader".
The dataset I created is a FALSE set of results - it does not reflect true trading results.
The point of setting myself up as a guinea pig was hopefully to help newbies/novices set up a plan where they do NOT occur large losses ie try trading at £2 stakes with a small bank and to try for a month to implement good trading practices or learn what you are doing wrong.
If you still find you can not do it - its time to seek professional advice. If you have been lossing for years may be its time to admit to yourself you just do NOT have what it takes to be a trader (I am talking to myself here).
If you can NOT look after the pennies how can you expect the pounds grow.
Andies last post is an EXCELLENT post.
I was watching one of Peter's videos where is trading at large stakes and is down -£40 to -£50 and because of his experience he says something like I know everybody will be saying I am supposed to get out of this trade but I feel the market will go in my direction - he waits and the market does turn in his direction.
You can not buy that kind of experience.
Thanks very much to all who have supported me - the advice has been excellent.
Good luck to you all!
Well its then end of the line for me! As predicted you can NOT hope to get away with ultimately relying on the IN PLAY back up trade!
As I said 2/3 of my trades were text book examples - the other 1/3 is where I am in a mess! I can not teach anybody how to be a successful trader - I am a lossing trader - I can show you how to lose.
I am a charlatan - even gamblers would not even want me to call myself a gambler - let alone even calling myself a "trader".
The dataset I created is a FALSE set of results - it does not reflect true trading results.
The point of setting myself up as a guinea pig was hopefully to help newbies/novices set up a plan where they do NOT occur large losses ie try trading at £2 stakes with a small bank and to try for a month to implement good trading practices or learn what you are doing wrong.
If you still find you can not do it - its time to seek professional advice. If you have been lossing for years may be its time to admit to yourself you just do NOT have what it takes to be a trader (I am talking to myself here).
If you can NOT look after the pennies how can you expect the pounds grow.
Andies last post is an EXCELLENT post.
I was watching one of Peter's videos where is trading at large stakes and is down -£40 to -£50 and because of his experience he says something like I know everybody will be saying I am supposed to get out of this trade but I feel the market will go in my direction - he waits and the market does turn in his direction.
You can not buy that kind of experience.
Thanks very much to all who have supported me - the advice has been excellent.
Good luck to you all!
Of course I am not going to leave it there.
By observing and recording what I was doing we can all see what I was clearly doing wrong.
So what next...well I am now going for the next 1.5 weeks again start trading from 18mins to 5mins before the off.
HOWEVER when there is 5mins to the off I will STOP trading - whatever the P&L is I WILL stop. This will enable me to see how that affects my trading.
I know volatilty picks up within the last 5mins and I want to be out of that.
I have noticed that most of my trading is done 9 to 6 mins before the off.
The reason I aim for 18 to 15mins before the off is that I trade of the BA Candle Back Only 5 second chart. And it takes 5 minutes for the chart pattern to form before I can get a "feel" for the market. I also use the ladder with Trading Profit turned on. I have the charts of the top three open.
Sometimes though I do get in maybe 12 to 10 mins before the off by reading just the ladder.
(I am not recommending this method but its just how I like to trade.)
By observing and recording what I was doing we can all see what I was clearly doing wrong.
So what next...well I am now going for the next 1.5 weeks again start trading from 18mins to 5mins before the off.
HOWEVER when there is 5mins to the off I will STOP trading - whatever the P&L is I WILL stop. This will enable me to see how that affects my trading.
I know volatilty picks up within the last 5mins and I want to be out of that.
I have noticed that most of my trading is done 9 to 6 mins before the off.
The reason I aim for 18 to 15mins before the off is that I trade of the BA Candle Back Only 5 second chart. And it takes 5 minutes for the chart pattern to form before I can get a "feel" for the market. I also use the ladder with Trading Profit turned on. I have the charts of the top three open.
Sometimes though I do get in maybe 12 to 10 mins before the off by reading just the ladder.
(I am not recommending this method but its just how I like to trade.)
And here they are:
I had move my stakes up to £10 at the start of 5th May - I had made something like £61 profit.
1.11 GB / Good 1st May / 14:50 5f Hcap
0.52 GB / Good 1st May / 16:00 1m Listed
0.23 GB / Newm 1st May / 13:55 1m1f Hcap
0.58 GB / Newm 1st May / 14:25 1m4f Grp2
0.45 GB / Newm 1st May / 16:15 6f Hcap
0.71 GB / Thirsk 1st May / 14:20 1m4f Mdn Stks
1.06 GB / Thirsk 1st May / 14:55 7f Mdn Stks
2.34 GB / Uttox 1st May / 14:05 2m4f Hcap Hrd
0.38 GB / Uttox 1st May / 14:40 2m5f Hcap Chs
0.47 GB / Uttox 1st May / 15:50 2m Mdn Hrd
3.15 GB / Uttox 1st May / 16:25 3m Hcap Chs
0.87 GB / Bev 3rd May / 14:50 5f Hcap
0.60 GB / Bev 3rd May / 15:20 1m2f Hcap
0.00 GB / Bev 3rd May / 15:50 1m Hcap
1.13 GB / Bev 3rd May / 16:20 7f Hcap
1.70 GB / Chep 3rd May / 14:35 1m4f Hcap
2.22 GB / Chep 3rd May / 15:05 1m4f Hcap
0.18 GB / Kemp 3rd May / 15:00 5f Hcap
2.79 GB / Warw 3rd May / 14:10 1m Hcap
0.00 GB / Warw 3rd May / 14:40 1m Hcap
0.29 GB / Warw 3rd May / 16:10 7f Hcap
1.21 GB / Wind 3rd May / 14:25 6f Hcap
0.35 GB / Bath 4th May / 15:00 5f Sell Stks
0.65 GB / Bath 4th May / 16:00 1m Hcap
0.49 GB / Fake 4th May / 14:20 2m Sell Hrd
1.00 GB / Fake 4th May / 14:50 2m5f Hcap Chs
1.15 GB / Fake 4th May / 15:20 2m7f Nov Hrd
1.08 GB / Fake 4th May / 15:50 3m Nov Chs
0.92 GB / Newc 4th May / 14:10 5f Mdn Stks
1.51 GB / Newc 4th May / 14:40 1m4f Hcap
0.65 GB / Newc 4th May / 15:10 7f Hcap
3.55 GB / Newc 4th May / 16:10 1m Hcap
I could have got away with this as I took an -£2-3 pound lost (and I had done so) and then thought - Then the pyscho returned -and thoguht sod it I am going for it
-129.72 GB / Chest 5th May / 13:45 5f Cond Stks
little did I know this was a PURE DRIFTER (I was backing - hoping for a BACK TO LAY with NO knowledge of horses) (In financial terms this was the NICK LEESON trade! remember he brought down Barrings Bank by refusing to accept the market was going against him)
AFTER soooo many excellent decisions - the one terrible terrible terrible decision
0.48 GB / Chest 5th May / 14:15 1m3f Listed
-2.82 GB / Chest 5th May / 16:00 1m4f Hcap
2.56 GB / Kelso 5th May / 14:05 2m6f Hcap Chs
0.73 GB / Kelso 5th May / 14:35 2m Hcap Hrd
0.34 GB / Kelso 5th May / 15:40 2m6f Hcap Hrd
0.38 GB / Kelso 5th May / 16:20 3m4f Hcap Chs
0.29 GB / Sthl 5th May / 14:25 7f Hcap
0.41 GB / Sthl 5th May / 15:30 1m6f Hcap
0.21 GB / Sthl 5th May / 16:10 1m4f Hcap
-65.91 Grand Total
I had move my stakes up to £10 at the start of 5th May - I had made something like £61 profit.
1.11 GB / Good 1st May / 14:50 5f Hcap
0.52 GB / Good 1st May / 16:00 1m Listed
0.23 GB / Newm 1st May / 13:55 1m1f Hcap
0.58 GB / Newm 1st May / 14:25 1m4f Grp2
0.45 GB / Newm 1st May / 16:15 6f Hcap
0.71 GB / Thirsk 1st May / 14:20 1m4f Mdn Stks
1.06 GB / Thirsk 1st May / 14:55 7f Mdn Stks
2.34 GB / Uttox 1st May / 14:05 2m4f Hcap Hrd
0.38 GB / Uttox 1st May / 14:40 2m5f Hcap Chs
0.47 GB / Uttox 1st May / 15:50 2m Mdn Hrd
3.15 GB / Uttox 1st May / 16:25 3m Hcap Chs
0.87 GB / Bev 3rd May / 14:50 5f Hcap
0.60 GB / Bev 3rd May / 15:20 1m2f Hcap
0.00 GB / Bev 3rd May / 15:50 1m Hcap
1.13 GB / Bev 3rd May / 16:20 7f Hcap
1.70 GB / Chep 3rd May / 14:35 1m4f Hcap
2.22 GB / Chep 3rd May / 15:05 1m4f Hcap
0.18 GB / Kemp 3rd May / 15:00 5f Hcap
2.79 GB / Warw 3rd May / 14:10 1m Hcap
0.00 GB / Warw 3rd May / 14:40 1m Hcap
0.29 GB / Warw 3rd May / 16:10 7f Hcap
1.21 GB / Wind 3rd May / 14:25 6f Hcap
0.35 GB / Bath 4th May / 15:00 5f Sell Stks
0.65 GB / Bath 4th May / 16:00 1m Hcap
0.49 GB / Fake 4th May / 14:20 2m Sell Hrd
1.00 GB / Fake 4th May / 14:50 2m5f Hcap Chs
1.15 GB / Fake 4th May / 15:20 2m7f Nov Hrd
1.08 GB / Fake 4th May / 15:50 3m Nov Chs
0.92 GB / Newc 4th May / 14:10 5f Mdn Stks
1.51 GB / Newc 4th May / 14:40 1m4f Hcap
0.65 GB / Newc 4th May / 15:10 7f Hcap
3.55 GB / Newc 4th May / 16:10 1m Hcap
I could have got away with this as I took an -£2-3 pound lost (and I had done so) and then thought - Then the pyscho returned -and thoguht sod it I am going for it
-129.72 GB / Chest 5th May / 13:45 5f Cond Stks
little did I know this was a PURE DRIFTER (I was backing - hoping for a BACK TO LAY with NO knowledge of horses) (In financial terms this was the NICK LEESON trade! remember he brought down Barrings Bank by refusing to accept the market was going against him)
AFTER soooo many excellent decisions - the one terrible terrible terrible decision
0.48 GB / Chest 5th May / 14:15 1m3f Listed
-2.82 GB / Chest 5th May / 16:00 1m4f Hcap
2.56 GB / Kelso 5th May / 14:05 2m6f Hcap Chs
0.73 GB / Kelso 5th May / 14:35 2m Hcap Hrd
0.34 GB / Kelso 5th May / 15:40 2m6f Hcap Hrd
0.38 GB / Kelso 5th May / 16:20 3m4f Hcap Chs
0.29 GB / Sthl 5th May / 14:25 7f Hcap
0.41 GB / Sthl 5th May / 15:30 1m6f Hcap
0.21 GB / Sthl 5th May / 16:10 1m4f Hcap
-65.91 Grand Total
I am a charlatan - even gamblers would not even want me to call myself a gambler - let alone even calling myself a "trader".
The dataset I created is a FALSE set of results - it does not reflect true trading results.
contradiction. you admit your "data set" is false, then you your trading occurs 9 to 6 mins before the off.I have noticed that most of my trading is done 9 to 6 mins before the off.
your doomed to fail if you lie to yourself. stupid idea using data you admit is false.
stop leave well alone for a few weeks. think honestly.
I seem to have caused some confusion:
the term dataset just means the results which I have recorded over this last two and half weeks;
the term "false" means that although the figures looked good in the beginning I was fooling myself as I did not restrict myself from going INPLAY.
Inevitably I was found out - perhaps "a Fools Results" would be a better term.
So what I am going to do now is to see what results I can achieve WITHOUT going INPLAY and in fact I am going to stop trading 5mins before the off.
(to75ne just forget i even mentioned 9 to 6 mins)
We will get a better idea of what my true trading results will be from this experiment.
Unfortunately I can not explain it in any simpler terms.
the term dataset just means the results which I have recorded over this last two and half weeks;
the term "false" means that although the figures looked good in the beginning I was fooling myself as I did not restrict myself from going INPLAY.
Inevitably I was found out - perhaps "a Fools Results" would be a better term.
So what I am going to do now is to see what results I can achieve WITHOUT going INPLAY and in fact I am going to stop trading 5mins before the off.
(to75ne just forget i even mentioned 9 to 6 mins)
We will get a better idea of what my true trading results will be from this experiment.
Unfortunately I can not explain it in any simpler terms.