Hi All - in terms of Back to lay or lay to back - which do you guys find most reliable /consistent (Proform or Pacecards) in helping to predict odds movement? I'm starting to develop trading discipline after 445 days of trading... (well -not always...groan) now i'm trying to find an additional method of identifying probable odds movement.
Cheers
proform & pacecards
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Thebest147
- Posts: 93
- Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:01 am
I would say none off the above,as they are just someone's best guess as to which will be a good back to lay candidate,In my opinion the best way to go about finding a perfect back to lay trade is go to attheraces,patternform any Free site that will give you an idea as to who might lead,than let the market do the work often the likely leader is trading at the very bottom of its range just before the post time then you will have a 80% plus chance of a winn ing trade,better still in jumps races do the above and check the course lay out the further it is to the 1st jump the better you don't really want a jump coming up to quick
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firlandsfarm
- Posts: 2720
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
you can use the BSP files available from Betfair (there is a thread in the forum about downloading them in bulk). They show the BSP, min/max prices and win/lose for every runner and then research any patterns in a horses' price movements.
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wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
I haven't looked at B2L or L2B for yonks, but FWIW, the resources I found at the time (free), helped me focus in on certain types.Ambettor wrote: ↑Wed May 15, 2019 10:13 pmHi All - in terms of Back to lay or lay to back - which do you guys find most reliable /consistent (Proform or Pacecards) in helping to predict odds movement? I'm starting to develop trading discipline after 445 days of trading... (well -not always...groan) now i'm trying to find an additional method of identifying probable odds movement.
Cheers
Betfair cards - Timeform Cash Out Hints
Attheraces Draw influence.
Attheraces Pace influence.
The cash-out hints suggest 2 potential qualifiers. Crystal Caque/Marshal Dan. I also like they are both in the Timeform 1-2-3 summary too.
The draw is considered to be no advantage, but the ATR info suggests Low draw may be have a small edge. So out if the two, Marshall Dan favoured.
The Pace tab, shows a fairly even pace from those drawn low, maybe Fieldsman likely to want to an early lead, Marshall Dan in good position behind. (B2L) candidate.
Interestingly, Fieldsman has a red MM (drifter) so could be an early L2B candidate. (Pre-Race)
The reason I tie in the Pace and Draw is to visualise how the race may go, backed up by the meta-data offered by recommended websites.
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wearthefoxhat
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Result Update;
I left it alone over the jumps. May look again as the flat gets into full swing, because of the draw/pace aspects. Last year I added some info to the DOB thread when I tried the QOB's and achieved a 5-timer. (equivalent to around a 2/1 winner). Just a bit of fun just to show a different approach....
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I was considering something similar i.e ignoring the jumps at this time as it's possible this time of year you find horses that you expect to front run don't and vice verca with unfancied horses finding form and being made to front run as a better run is expected.wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Thu May 16, 2019 6:15 pmResult Update;
Res.PNG
I left it alone over the jumps. May look again as the flat gets into full swing, because of the draw/pace aspects. Last year I added some info to the DOB thread when I tried the QOB's and achieved a 5-timer. (equivalent to around a 2/1 winner). Just a bit of fun just to show a different approach....