Trades drifting away

[odchamp]

Having a really bad day today on the Horses, small stakes so no big deal, but I just can't seem to progress. I have read shed loads and watched countless videos, but after studying the graphs I make my entry point and it just drifts away and stays away, if im at the top or bottom of the trading range, it just seems to drift and stay that way, no bounce back etc, loss after loss just so frustrating after putting so much time into this to not be making any progress. ( moan over )

[jimrobo]

by all means read books and watch videos so you know what you can do in the market but no amount of books or videos will teach you what to do in the market as it happens. You can only learn how it works by figuring it out yourself.

[ShaunWhite]

Charts are only a picture of what happened in the past, and if they were a firm indication of what might happen in the future, this would be easy.

Situations change especially on a day when the going, and sentiment, changes due to the weather. Be prepared to act on what you're seeing in the moment. If a horse is drifting, maybe it's because punters have decided it won't like the ground, and if that's the case, why would it bounce or reverse? Why a price is moving is far more important than the simple fact that it is. And if there doesn't seem to be a good reason why, a reverse is more likely.

I don't know how long you've been trading and what you consider to be 'so much time', but if you're still in your first annual cycle or measuring hours in hundereds rather than thousands, I wouldn't be too concerned you're not ordering your Ferarri yet.

[ruthlessimon]

Having a really bad day today

I have read shed loads and watched countless videos

if im at the top or bottom of the trading range, it just seems to drift and stay that way, no bounce back etc, loss after loss

Are you consistent with your process of selecting when & where to trade?

My issues always come when: -

1. Don't fully believe in my plan (i.e. backing under Xo's, no stop <2.0)
2. Trading without a plan (i.e. haven't traded in a while, bored, this runner looks weak.. lay it.. - also called "discretion" )

Might get some backs up that last point though

Also, Imho, the longterm traded range is overrated. You might need it to become Paul Tudor Jones, but there are other variables I'd place higher (i.e. Price, What price are we at?)

[ShaunWhite]

2. Trading without a plan (i.e. haven't traded in a while, bored, this runner looks weak.. lay it.. - also called "discretion" )

Might get some backs up that last point though

Well you're right about the last sentance
Plenty of people make plenty of money trading without a 'plan' by trading what they see happening in the moment. That's the essence of being an orderflow trader.

I won't clog up this guy's thread, we've already exchanged 100s of emails arguing about this

[odchamp]

Thanks for your input.
I do understand the different reasons why a horse may or may not be fancied, but that doesn't help me when for example its at its bottom trading range with 3/4 mins to off, I lay it expecting it to drift out, maybe because 2nd fav coming in etc and it appears to have stalled and then it just slowly gets shorter and shorter so I have to hit the take SP and that's another loss. Move on to next race if its too soon I skip it and study the one after trying to get a picture of what may happen but it all seems to go out of the window as we get to around the five mins mark, it just seems the last 2 mins is the true indicator but its frantic and totally unpredictable as big bets came flying in.
Obviously I am doing something wrong I get that, and need a lot more practice

[Naffman]

Like Shaun said graphs mean nothing you almost may as well not even have them open.

Ranges may mean a lot when trading Forex for example but those markets have been open decades, a horse racing market has a life span of a few hours.

[ruthlessimon]

we've already exchanged 100s of emails arguing about this

The Op is highlighting the issues of discretionary order flow:

"I lay it expecting it to drift out, maybe because 2nd fav coming in etc and it appears to have stalled and then it just slowly gets shorter and shorter so I have to hit the take SP and that's another loss"

I could've written that word for word in those emails

To me, it's lacking key information. There's key info the Op has missed - not related to orderflow - fundamental to that trade working. Order flow is the icing (& a bl00dy difficult icing!!)

[ShaunWhite]

I lay it expecting it to drift out, maybe because 2nd fav coming in etc

If the 2nd is coming in, unless it's a two horse race it doesn't always mean the fav will drift. And tbf if it had come in, what sign was there it would come in more?

I lay it expecting it to drift out, maybe because 2nd fav coming in etc
so I have to hit the take SP

Why leave yourself to the mercy of SP? That sounds like you're hanging on to a position with your fingers crossed rather than choosing to hold on or get out asap.

That's all ifs buts and maybes though, and the fact that every situation has subtle differences explains why there's no shortcut to experience and why you'll hear so many sucessful guys saying that experience might take 10,000 markets to aquire.

[Kai]

Thanks for your input.
I do understand the different reasons why a horse may or may not be fancied, but that doesn't help me when for example its at its bottom trading range with 3/4 mins to off, I lay it expecting it to drift out, maybe because 2nd fav coming in etc and it appears to have stalled and then it just slowly gets shorter and shorter so I have to hit the take SP and that's another loss. Move on to next race if its too soon I skip it and study the one after trying to get a picture of what may happen but it all seems to go out of the window as we get to around the five mins mark, it just seems the last 2 mins is the true indicator but its frantic and totally unpredictable as big bets came flying in.
Obviously I am doing something wrong I get that, and need a lot more practice

To be honest you would get higher quality feedback if you provided more details about what you're actually looking for in the market and how you're trying to execute your trades etc. Nothing is really stopping you from posting a screenshot and asking in detail what went wrong or whether others would jump on this trade etc, I'm sure you would get some quality input that way, especially if you're stuck and can't figure out what you're doing wrong.

I'm always surprised that people never seem to do that when asking for advice, that's how I would do it, there's nothing wrong with generalizing but the devil is in the details. Analysis in general goes a long way, a more detailed approach would certainly raise the quality level of such threads and could potentially spark some good educational discussions.

[BetBuddy]

Thanks for your input.
I do understand the different reasons why a horse may or may not be fancied, but that doesn't help me when for example its at its bottom trading range with 3/4 mins to off, I lay it expecting it to drift out, maybe because 2nd fav coming in etc and it appears to have stalled and then it just slowly gets shorter and shorter so I have to hit the take SP and that's another loss. Move on to next race if its too soon I skip it and study the one after trying to get a picture of what may happen but it all seems to go out of the window as we get to around the five mins mark, it just seems the last 2 mins is the true indicator but its frantic and totally unpredictable as big bets came flying in.
Obviously I am doing something wrong I get that, and need a lot more practice

If a selections price is at the bottom of its current range then set a signal. Then wait for something else to occur like a build up of money on the other side. Then place your lay bet. Allot will depend on the type of race, Hcap or non Hcap and if the race is competitive or not.

[odchamp]

Again really apricate your time.
However just made 25% on last race happy days should be able to buy some crisps with that, however it all went as planned for once.
Screen shots good idea.
Yes well aware that its more than a two horse race and other horses affect how a fav would rise or fall, I was just using that as an example.
Money flow I do find hard to visualise the unless it comes in in its thousands, but both sides can look similar and change in a heart beat, I think I would prefer a colour volume bar or something like that, not sure if betangel has that already?

[ShaunWhite]

would prefer a colour volume bar or something like that, not sure if betangel has that already?

?

[ShaunWhite]

However just made 25% on last race happy days should be able to buy some crisps with that, however it all went as planned for once.

Nice one. Everyone has losing days, the trick is preserving your capital so you live to fight the next one.

Recording your screen with video capture software is a nice way to review the day. You can hit the pause button and take the time to absorb what's going on. You'd be suprised how many 'I can't believe I did that' moments you'll see...especially when you review recordings from a few weeks ago.

[odchamp]

Don't know how to record?
But took a screen shot but it says file too big?