Over a large sample not race to race.
Backing high / laying low
Peter did a good video explains how markets can be both efficient yet inefficient
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5YyGGUxZXM
My 10p worth is that BF do a very good job at making sure there is a balance in the market when in reality the fluctuations say differently.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
If there's efficiency at scale (and there is) then it's statistically virtually impossible for all of the constituents to be equally 'efficient'. But it's also impossible to say which individual ones aren't and by how much. You don't need to know about trading and horses because that's just logic and some maths.
80,000 horses a year can't all be running at exactly the 'right' price and when a 3.0 winner comes in it's not possible to know if that horse on that day, at that moment should have been say 2.8 or 3.2.
80,000 horses a year can't all be running at exactly the 'right' price and when a 3.0 winner comes in it's not possible to know if that horse on that day, at that moment should have been say 2.8 or 3.2.