Clearly defining risk before entry

[greg]

Hi everyone,
So here I am ,11 years on this long long road for me , and again I`m in need of some help please, I would like to know the calculation i need to work out the risk i`m taking BEFORE i enter a trade in pounds and pence.I Have red the thread on greening up a winning back bet trade and that is pretty straight forward but can make it work for laying first and the market going against me. Really sorry if this has been covered elsewhere but this is my issues
So the set up is i`m staking by liability of £30 and entering a lay trade at 4.4 so stake is £8.82, the logical exit is 3.95 but before i enter I want to know the risk in terms of money as well as ticks
Many thanks Greg .

[spreadbetting]

Here's an excel file I've posted before.

I put the calculations you're probably after on sheet2, I haven't protected the cells so only amend the formulas if you need to

greenup.xls

[Jukebox]

The hedge out calculation is as follows

Layed 8.82 stake @4.4 odds hedging with a back bet @3.95 odds

8.82 x 4.4 = 38.80
38.80 / 3.95 = 9.82 back stake

Outcome if selection loses
8.82 gain on lay bet
9.82 loss on back bet
nett loss £1

Outcome if selection wins
28.97 gain on back bet
29.99 loss on lay bet
nett loss £1.02

You can expect a few pennies difference here and there due to rounding.

[greg]

That's great thank you both

[jimibt]

That's great thank you both

i'm sure if Dallas is reading he'll no doubt have a lightbuld moment and realise that you could use sv's and markers to track your entry and exit points and create a bounded section across the prices to indicate when it was time to ponder exits - especially if the current price was given a kind of traffic light warning system to indicate that it was being pushed or pulled one way or t'other