Hi, I have recently come across Betangel and it seems quite interesting. I have played online poker succesfully for some time but I got really bored and annoyed with it and I am looking for something else to make money for a while. My question now to you guys is how profitable is this really? How much money du you think can one make realistically?
I would be willing to work with 5000€, what kind of hourly pay do you guys think is realistic in the first months, how much more does your hourly rate improve through learning?
Would be great to get some honest opinions from people who have tried this for a while.
Also how is the volatility in this? In poker I am aware that I may win or lose a whole months work in one day. Is that similar here?
What is your success so far?
How long is a piece of string?
Don't be fooled that you will be likely to make a good profit from day 1. It will take you some time and how long depends not only on your bank balance but your own personal make-up.
By this I mean not only how quickly you can learn the technical side but one of mastering the control of your emotions, such as Greed, Anger, Over-confidence, under confidence etc.
If you walk into the market expecting to make an easy buck then there are better people than me in this forum who will be lining up to take your money.
I make a daily (small) 3 figure income and have been doing this full-time since June this year but some using forum make a lot more than me. Some have been doing this for years and others months.
Also remember that we are using an exchange, therefore, for every winner there has to a loser!
Don't be fooled that you will be likely to make a good profit from day 1. It will take you some time and how long depends not only on your bank balance but your own personal make-up.
By this I mean not only how quickly you can learn the technical side but one of mastering the control of your emotions, such as Greed, Anger, Over-confidence, under confidence etc.
If you walk into the market expecting to make an easy buck then there are better people than me in this forum who will be lining up to take your money.
I make a daily (small) 3 figure income and have been doing this full-time since June this year but some using forum make a lot more than me. Some have been doing this for years and others months.
Also remember that we are using an exchange, therefore, for every winner there has to a loser!
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nachtwacht
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 6:19 pm
Depending on the level you play I would think poker is a lot easier. Betting has a lot more variables. You don't have to judge just 1 opponent, you have to judge a complete market.
Biggest advantage of betting would be that "all" information is know. That is.... it is accounted for in the price that is currently trading.
Poker is a game where not all information is known.... but depending on the level you play, you can realy get a lot of information from your opponent.....
If you are a good poker player, you will know that even with your variance, you will make a profit. I don't know how high variance is in betting but before you can find that out, you would have to start with a winning strategy.... wich is much easier to find in poker than it is in betting.
So I am afraid that just bringing a lot of money with you will not be a guarantee for succes.
You could start with looking at some betting exchange traders that have become succesfull. Unfortunatly you will not find any that made a living from the start. You can find the answer you are looking for there I think.
gl
Biggest advantage of betting would be that "all" information is know. That is.... it is accounted for in the price that is currently trading.
Poker is a game where not all information is known.... but depending on the level you play, you can realy get a lot of information from your opponent.....
If you are a good poker player, you will know that even with your variance, you will make a profit. I don't know how high variance is in betting but before you can find that out, you would have to start with a winning strategy.... wich is much easier to find in poker than it is in betting.
So I am afraid that just bringing a lot of money with you will not be a guarantee for succes.
You could start with looking at some betting exchange traders that have become succesfull. Unfortunatly you will not find any that made a living from the start. You can find the answer you are looking for there I think.
gl
I come from a poker background too, played last 6 years online. Currently grinding stars tournaments + SNGs and splashing mid stakes holdem and omaha. I've only been experimenting with betting exchanges for a month now. However, I can say without a doubt that poker is much more profitable, and more variable that straight exchange trading (swings + scalps) even with a 5000E roll (what stakes are you playing poker at?)
A poker equivalent would be short stacking, where you are pushing very small edges for a few percent profit over the long run. The variance and rewards with trading are almost equal as you are just risking a few percent in either direction.
However in saying that, I do think that if you have a background in Sports Betting or Horse Racing there is a much greater potential for larger profits, with alot of research and patience.
You need to take it above and beyond basic mathematics, trend reading, and charting.
e.g.
Horse Racing - If you can analyse form guide, anticipate market trends, have a fair understanding of the likely threats to win the race, have live feeds to mounting yard displays + bookies yards + in race action and combine this with swing and scalp trading then variance goes down and the profits go right up.
It's like having reads at the table, e.g. In a tourney, if someones reships 20BB, you have AQo, in a vacuum you might call and the play might be just better than break even. But if you know this guy is a nit, have a 3B% of 0% and hasn't played a hand in 3 orbits then you might fold knowing that his range is too tight to make it profitable. Basically the more information you have with trading, the easier and more profitable it is.
I think if you want to grind, then stay with poker. But if you have an interest in progressing into Sports Betting, Book Making or Stock markets / Foreign Currency Trading then this is a reasonable stepping stone. Plus it's nice to use a different part of your brain as poker can get boring at times.
A poker equivalent would be short stacking, where you are pushing very small edges for a few percent profit over the long run. The variance and rewards with trading are almost equal as you are just risking a few percent in either direction.
However in saying that, I do think that if you have a background in Sports Betting or Horse Racing there is a much greater potential for larger profits, with alot of research and patience.
You need to take it above and beyond basic mathematics, trend reading, and charting.
e.g.
Horse Racing - If you can analyse form guide, anticipate market trends, have a fair understanding of the likely threats to win the race, have live feeds to mounting yard displays + bookies yards + in race action and combine this with swing and scalp trading then variance goes down and the profits go right up.
It's like having reads at the table, e.g. In a tourney, if someones reships 20BB, you have AQo, in a vacuum you might call and the play might be just better than break even. But if you know this guy is a nit, have a 3B% of 0% and hasn't played a hand in 3 orbits then you might fold knowing that his range is too tight to make it profitable. Basically the more information you have with trading, the easier and more profitable it is.
I think if you want to grind, then stay with poker. But if you have an interest in progressing into Sports Betting, Book Making or Stock markets / Foreign Currency Trading then this is a reasonable stepping stone. Plus it's nice to use a different part of your brain as poker can get boring at times.
Thanks for all the advice so far. I definately know about the emotional aspects from poker and I am sure I can deal with that better than newbies.
My motivation so far is to find a new interesting way to make some money as an alternative to poker. I like the trading since I study business and this seems like a good way to get some practical experience with exchanges.
Unfortunatelly, I have no experience or knowledge about sportsbetting especially horseracing. How important is the knowledge of the underlying sport compared to just the knowledge of the market?
In the end it is important to me that I can make a decent amount of money for the time I invest.
In poker I play NL200 cash game and I make a decent hourly amount of money for those stakes. Of course I wouldn't enjoy cutting my hourly rate too much with trading, especially since I think trading becomes quite a grind after a while like poker. Have you made that experience?
So the minimum profit I would be willing to accept would be like an average of 30€/hour after 2-3months with steady improvement after that. Is that realistic?
My motivation so far is to find a new interesting way to make some money as an alternative to poker. I like the trading since I study business and this seems like a good way to get some practical experience with exchanges.
Unfortunatelly, I have no experience or knowledge about sportsbetting especially horseracing. How important is the knowledge of the underlying sport compared to just the knowledge of the market?
In the end it is important to me that I can make a decent amount of money for the time I invest.
In poker I play NL200 cash game and I make a decent hourly amount of money for those stakes. Of course I wouldn't enjoy cutting my hourly rate too much with trading, especially since I think trading becomes quite a grind after a while like poker. Have you made that experience?
So the minimum profit I would be willing to accept would be like an average of 30€/hour after 2-3months with steady improvement after that. Is that realistic?
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nachtwacht
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 6:19 pm
Some of the best I have come across doing my research are making 1k a day. That is, if you believe their blog's wich I personaly do. These people usualy worked years before they come this far.
Most that make an "income" out of it make rougly 100 to 150 a day. Still, I don't think a lot of them were making that after 3 months though
Then the majority wannabee's make an average of zero or less.
What I have come across is that most that make do make a small income use some knowledge about the games they bet on. A lot of it is common knowlegde about the markets. (simple example, if 2 soccer teams play eachother, both teams are known to not score a lot, being better defenders than attackers, there is money to be made in play on backing the draw as a trade) Depending on the way you want to do your betting (betting because you know statistics about the games or just look at the price trend) it's not so easy to pick up all that knowledge in 3 months.
Basicaly, very long story.... but what it all boils down to is:
If it were that easy.... wouldn't anyone be doing it ?
There are ofcourse always exceptions.... but statistics are not in your favor
Most that make an "income" out of it make rougly 100 to 150 a day. Still, I don't think a lot of them were making that after 3 months though
Then the majority wannabee's make an average of zero or less.
What I have come across is that most that make do make a small income use some knowledge about the games they bet on. A lot of it is common knowlegde about the markets. (simple example, if 2 soccer teams play eachother, both teams are known to not score a lot, being better defenders than attackers, there is money to be made in play on backing the draw as a trade) Depending on the way you want to do your betting (betting because you know statistics about the games or just look at the price trend) it's not so easy to pick up all that knowledge in 3 months.
Basicaly, very long story.... but what it all boils down to is:
If it were that easy.... wouldn't anyone be doing it ?
There are ofcourse always exceptions.... but statistics are not in your favor
What about the fun part of trading? It it more a love/hate relation for you guys where you lost the fun for the trading and just do it for money or do you still enjoy it?
That's what I don't like about poker you supress any emotions and it just becomes automatic and boring.
That's what I don't like about poker you supress any emotions and it just becomes automatic and boring.
Just look at trading as a new/fun challenge, give it a go with small stakes and see what happens. I've also come into this from playing a lot of poker, as it just drives you insane - you can play perfect poker for days, weeks and still lose. Trading the horsies before the off it feels more like you are in control and if you lose (I'm still losing at the moment) it's because of your mistakes, rather than the 1 card left in the deck that your opponent needs appearing on the river.
Its also different in terms of structure/time spent - if there's racing from 2pm till 6 then you are trading one race after the other, one at a time, and there is a clear start/end point. With poker there is a tendency to keep adding more tables until you find yourself turning into a robot, and sucking all the fun out of it. Also, if it starts going wrong you can just keep playing, chasing your losses until you are busto!
Its also different in terms of structure/time spent - if there's racing from 2pm till 6 then you are trading one race after the other, one at a time, and there is a clear start/end point. With poker there is a tendency to keep adding more tables until you find yourself turning into a robot, and sucking all the fun out of it. Also, if it starts going wrong you can just keep playing, chasing your losses until you are busto!
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nachtwacht
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 6:19 pm
I think I differ a little to sbetts here...
If you want the process of betting to be nice and fun, you are opening yourself up to failure. The problem is, as soon as you open the process of betting up to emotions, you will tend to hang on to your losses.
Being profitable in betting I think will have to do a lot with being emotionless in the process.
That means, you will have to be a robot. Maybe even more than poker. In poker you MUST NOT be a robot. If you become a robot, your opponents will get on to that and will use that to make a profit from you. In poker, loosing money is not your mistake, its just how the cards fall. That is ofcourse, if you do not make mistakes... but even mistakes can be justified in poker. For instance, a semi bluff can end up to be a mistake because your opponent happened to have the nuts but with the range of hands you put him on, it can still be a good play.
In betting, it's just you making stupid mistakes Nobody to blame but yourself.
If you want the process of betting to be nice and fun, you are opening yourself up to failure. The problem is, as soon as you open the process of betting up to emotions, you will tend to hang on to your losses.
Being profitable in betting I think will have to do a lot with being emotionless in the process.
That means, you will have to be a robot. Maybe even more than poker. In poker you MUST NOT be a robot. If you become a robot, your opponents will get on to that and will use that to make a profit from you. In poker, loosing money is not your mistake, its just how the cards fall. That is ofcourse, if you do not make mistakes... but even mistakes can be justified in poker. For instance, a semi bluff can end up to be a mistake because your opponent happened to have the nuts but with the range of hands you put him on, it can still be a good play.
In betting, it's just you making stupid mistakes
Nobody to blame but yourself.Hm I hear a lot about "you know when you make a mistake" How well can you really know that you did something wrong?
Like in poker you can call too many hands out of position but you won't really notice that it is costing you money because you think you play the hands well.
In trading can you really say I did this wrong? Isn't it alot about expecting trends and sometimes you are right and sometimes not?
So if you lose money 3 times in a row with your prediction can you really know if you made a mistake or you are just unlucky?
The two main strategys I've come across so far is swinging and scalping. It looks like scalping is what most beginners do. So what makes a professional better than a beginner? Does he know more about the scalping or does he have more advanced strategies?
Like in poker you can call too many hands out of position but you won't really notice that it is costing you money because you think you play the hands well.
In trading can you really say I did this wrong? Isn't it alot about expecting trends and sometimes you are right and sometimes not?
So if you lose money 3 times in a row with your prediction can you really know if you made a mistake or you are just unlucky?
The two main strategys I've come across so far is swinging and scalping. It looks like scalping is what most beginners do. So what makes a professional better than a beginner? Does he know more about the scalping or does he have more advanced strategies?
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nachtwacht
- Posts: 37
- Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 6:19 pm
I don't think it is about loosing money, it is about how much you loose in a certain situation (doesn't that sound familiar )
I personaly think that the pro just has a lot more experience and with experience come more advanced strategies.
Remember, we are not talking about if you can make 30 an hour, I think you can, we are talking about if you can do it within 3 months... I still think you can, I am sure it has been done before, but I also think you would probably be an exception and not the rule.
)I personaly think that the pro just has a lot more experience and with experience come more advanced strategies.
Remember, we are not talking about if you can make 30 an hour, I think you can, we are talking about if you can do it within 3 months... I still think you can, I am sure it has been done before, but I also think you would probably be an exception and not the rule.
I think you can know you are making a mistake/not "getting it" pretty quickly in trading. Ok 3 trades isn't enough but if you said I'm going to try scalping, and you recorded number of profitable trades, and average win and loss size for 100 trades you'd have some idea of how well you were doing. You would then know your strike rate and can work out if the lots of little wins balance out the occasional big loss and refine it/keep practising from there. As I prove every time I try to trade, its not easy to make money, but challenging myself to become profitable at this is what makes it fun for me.