Horse Predictor
SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Thu Sep 27, 2018 10:00 amAs we know this is the case... what I’d like to know.. how accurate are the finishing distances from the winner.bobs71 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:17 amStellaBot - trying to decipher your incomprehensible posts is much harder than trying to put a figure on a handicap winner at Chelmsford on a wet and blustery Thursday night - if you had bothered to read my post , i did say "averages don't work" - standards are created by comparing a dataset of past times against expected to actual ability , and the use of statistical techniques involving standard deviation and variable percentiles - It is easier to run faster at 5f than it is to run faster at 16f , so that basic fact of equine bio-mechanics has to be factored in , along with normalisation in relation to the factors that effect times - This process of benchmarking has to be done in the first place to "consider the fastest" otherwise you are working with smoke and mirrors. There is also an ongoing calibration process ,simply because new data is added every single racing day. One aspect that nobody has mentioned is the amount of "false" published or official times that get passed through as if they are accurate - the video analysis (which i know Timeform do as well) is a necessary - to give you an example , have a look at a horse called Promote - who won recently at Newcastle in an "official" time of 71.02 - video analysis shows that was out by ~2.00 full seconds which would equate to around 40 odd lbs at that distance using modern estimates (25lbs per second at 5f) - or that at Chelmsford the timer is calibrated wrongly and "undersells" every time by ~0.20 to 0.50 depending on the distance - these kind of errors are common place in the game and not many people know about them.Promote.PNGPromote 2.PNG
Have you researched any of this?
If they can get simple race times wrong. How wrong are the actual finishing positions in lengths?
Dm please SHR
Cheers
- ShaunWhite
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- SeaHorseRacing
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Still about Naffman... Appreciate the kind words. Very occasionally trade... But business interest takes up all my time and I actually have a bit of a social life now haha.
Do miss the forum, (finally hit the 7 out of 7 last year, 18 months ago..)