Normally play the safe game (i.e. green out at £xx amount with an expectation that we hit the target 95% of the time and occasionally hit a wee bit above or a tad below. Today was pretty much the case with this, except for (Twilight Payment - ironic of course):
no complaints, but this has NEVER happened before and is a happy coincidence of timing and matching. lol -would love to have all my losing LAYS produce this kinda result...
Best green (EVER) :D
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Now I'm jealous about the 'normally £25-30 (or less)"jimibt wrote:DON'T - it's normally £25-30 max (or less!!)shakespeare wrote:Feeling jealous!
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ArticalBadboy
- Posts: 106
- Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:43 pm
Hi Jimibt, hope you are well.
I know this is an old post but well done.
Perhaps you could help please.
Obviously I don't expect you to give away any edge, but I am curious as to what kind of strategy this is?
You backed three horses pre off (is this a BTL where you nominate fast starting horses?)
Then during the race you layed what became the winning horse.
If Twilight Payment had of started to do well just after you laid it, surely you could have been in a position where all four bets lost?
Many Thanks
ArticalBadboy
I know this is an old post but well done.
Perhaps you could help please.
Obviously I don't expect you to give away any edge, but I am curious as to what kind of strategy this is?
You backed three horses pre off (is this a BTL where you nominate fast starting horses?)
Then during the race you layed what became the winning horse.
If Twilight Payment had of started to do well just after you laid it, surely you could have been in a position where all four bets lost?
Many Thanks
ArticalBadboy
this strategy was actually a combo of two strategies:
1. pre-off B2L with conservative offset greening
2. Gap measuring L2B triggered by a set of criteria that looks at current market book% and other factors
Had it not been for the Twilight runner I think this would have netted £15-20 (which would be a fair norm for that rule section). However, a set of circumstances occurred on this runner that triggered the lay and and also managed to green out before it spun back round. TBH, this extreme scenario was never repeated thereafter and i certainly was aware at the time that it was a strange turn of events. That said, the signals/conditions that triggered Twighlight is still something i use to this day (a mixture of book%, gap and a few other metrics). Potentially whatever was going on in this race could be backtested by downloading the betfair data and looking at what was going on when this scenario occurred.
Will keep you posted if I ever trump (ouch -hate that word now - lol) that result using similar metrics.
1. pre-off B2L with conservative offset greening
2. Gap measuring L2B triggered by a set of criteria that looks at current market book% and other factors
Had it not been for the Twilight runner I think this would have netted £15-20 (which would be a fair norm for that rule section). However, a set of circumstances occurred on this runner that triggered the lay and and also managed to green out before it spun back round. TBH, this extreme scenario was never repeated thereafter and i certainly was aware at the time that it was a strange turn of events. That said, the signals/conditions that triggered Twighlight is still something i use to this day (a mixture of book%, gap and a few other metrics). Potentially whatever was going on in this race could be backtested by downloading the betfair data and looking at what was going on when this scenario occurred.
Will keep you posted if I ever trump (ouch -hate that word now - lol) that result using similar metrics.