General discussion : We Are The Dumb Money!!!!!

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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2159
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:04 am

mhorro wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:11 pm
Hi Anna,

Thanks for your candid comments, we are all entitled to our opinion and that is how it should be.

I put this scenario to you.

You are a layer and do your home work on a race and home in on a horse you want to lay.

You do all you stats and analysis etc. How do you factor in the horse's handicap mark not being it;s true value? So you might be laying a horse that is better than you think because it has should we say been economically ridden in previous races!!!!

In my opinion that makes you the dumb money correct? You do not have an edge you are on the wrong side of the fence!

I think this is what is wrong with the horse racing game in the UK small owners and trainers are struggling to pay so gambling tops up the coffers!

If we take Forex trading and brokers I bet most of the investment banks have their fingers in some sort of financial commitment in the broker firms, they cannot lose, the retailer shorts and the bank longs or vica versa!!!!!!

Thanks
You should never back a horse you fancy without using the other runners in a race to compare to know what price it should be.

I fancy atleast 4 or 5 horses every single day of the week, but I dont back them because most of the time they are underlays. Majority of my winning thoughts are 4/1 shots who should be 6/1 = a bet your going to lose long term.

IMO a handicap mark is purely subjective. Think like a trainer and you will find more winners and certainly more horses "well handicapped"

75% of all runs on all low-grade racing are not as honest as you think. Not suggesting most horses are being cheated but everyone's out to play the system, you have to remember too. Trainers job is to look after and cater for the welfare of horse. Punters need to know that the majority of horses can only stay fit for approx 6 weeks and can take as much as 12 weeks to get a horse fit. Knowing and working on that will give you an edge.

There are exceptions, the best horses are honest triers and will win all year round just because they have the will to win. You can get good horses without ability, again they are consistant because they want it- find one of these in its peak fitness you have a massive edge.

Another note. People are so hung up on the distance of a horse, what I have learned is how much a horse can change over the years. Time and time again you will find horses who have struggled over say 7f in his younger days... then spends his career running 8f,9,f and 10f. Eventually, that horse will actually have a preference to winning over 8f. The come out of form... all of sudden run over 7f and win a string at that distance. Horses change just like us and it can happen quickly.

foxwood
Posts: 103
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm

Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:10 pm

mhorro wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:32 pm
Who is the dumb money?
In any scenario If you don't know who is the dumb money then it's probably you :roll:

Anna List
Posts: 142
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:29 pm

foxwood wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:10 pm
mhorro wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:32 pm
Who is the dumb money?
In any scenario If you don't know who is the dumb money then it's probably you :roll:
Many a true word spoken in jest. :D

Derek27
Posts: 1621
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:51 pm

The answer to the question really lies in your profit/loss account. The more you lose the more likely your money is dumb, or on the dumb side. The more you win the more likely it is to be smart money.

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BlackHat Betting
Posts: 30
Joined: Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:51 pm
Contact:

Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:58 am

Anna List wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:17 pm
Had to come in on this one.

OP - my apologies but you are talking bol**cks.

I'm a layer - not a trader - but it makes no never mind.

It's all about discipline and maximising chances when they come along.

Through the analysis of data, 'edges' can be quickly and efficiently identified and exploited which, of course, just as quickly neutralisers them.

However, I've been in this game for 'some time'. In all honesty, it's probably getting easier to make money not more difficult in the horse racing markets. It's true, the markets are becoming more efficient - but that's only at the high-level and over the long-term. Over the short-term, and at the low-level, market inefficiencies are probably getting worse and that's because communication is getting better and faster. As a result, it's easier and quicker to spread false information - and that's a lucrative source of market inefficiency. Also, if you think that 'fiddling' is decreasing, think again. Don't want to dwell too much on this, for obvious reasons.

Because someone has a shed load and a fast computer does not guarantee success. Look up LTCM.
are you an in play layer?

Anna List
Posts: 142
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:09 am

BlackHat Betting wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:58 am
Anna List wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:17 pm
Had to come in on this one.

OP - my apologies but you are talking bol**cks.

I'm a layer - not a trader - but it makes no never mind.

It's all about discipline and maximising chances when they come along.

Through the analysis of data, 'edges' can be quickly and efficiently identified and exploited which, of course, just as quickly neutralisers them.

However, I've been in this game for 'some time'. In all honesty, it's probably getting easier to make money not more difficult in the horse racing markets. It's true, the markets are becoming more efficient - but that's only at the high-level and over the long-term. Over the short-term, and at the low-level, market inefficiencies are probably getting worse and that's because communication is getting better and faster. As a result, it's easier and quicker to spread false information - and that's a lucrative source of market inefficiency. Also, if you think that 'fiddling' is decreasing, think again. Don't want to dwell too much on this, for obvious reasons.

Because someone has a shed load and a fast computer does not guarantee success. Look up LTCM.
are you an in play layer?
Yes, mostly.
Last edited by Anna List on Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

Kalumpus
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2013 12:04 pm

Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:10 am

If you consistently make money your money is smart, if you consistently lose then your money is dumb - that simple!

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BlackHat Betting
Posts: 30
Joined: Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:51 pm
Contact:

Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:58 pm

Anna List wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:09 am
BlackHat Betting wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:58 am
Anna List wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:17 pm
Had to come in on this one.

OP - my apologies but you are talking bol**cks.

I'm a layer - not a trader - but it makes no never mind.

It's all about discipline and maximising chances when they come along.

Through the analysis of data, 'edges' can be quickly and efficiently identified and exploited which, of course, just as quickly neutralisers them.

However, I've been in this game for 'some time'. In all honesty, it's probably getting easier to make money not more difficult in the horse racing markets. It's true, the markets are becoming more efficient - but that's only at the high-level and over the long-term. Over the short-term, and at the low-level, market inefficiencies are probably getting worse and that's because communication is getting better and faster. As a result, it's easier and quicker to spread false information - and that's a lucrative source of market inefficiency. Also, if you think that 'fiddling' is decreasing, think again. Don't want to dwell too much on this, for obvious reasons.

Because someone has a shed load and a fast computer does not guarantee success. Look up LTCM.
are you an in play layer?
Yes, mostly.
Ah ok good good I am not the only one that prefers that way to trade.

are you scalping or simply laying off the 3 legged donkeys?

Anna List
Posts: 142
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:29 am

BlackHat Betting wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:58 pm
Anna List wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:09 am
BlackHat Betting wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:58 am


are you an in play layer?
Yes, mostly.
Ah ok good good I am not the only one that prefers that way to trade.

are you scalping or simply laying off the 3 legged donkeys?
In the main, I lay.

If, after a match, it looks as if the horse will win, I back it to offset some of my losses. This, obviously, is a judgement call.

The odds that I submit my lay at are pre-calculated by me before the off. The lay is created before the off but not submitted until the off. The odds represent what I consider to be value.

If I can't get the odds I want, I trash the bet - rather than take odds which aren't value.

If I don't get an 'early' match, I trash the bet. Again, this is a judgement call. By trashing the bet at an early stage, I don't get hit by a fast finisher.

It means I have to operate in manual mode 100% of the time but I prefer it that way. I'm in control.

Yes, it's labour intensive, but then, I learn a lot that I wouldn't if I automated the process (which I could do if I wanted to).

I've tried trading but, to be honest, I'm not good. I just don't have the natural flair that I have as a layer.

I back, on occasions, but only under certain and rare circumstances.

Anna

Ferru123
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:06 pm

mhorro wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:32 pm
In trading you have Investment banks, brokers and retail traders ( retail traders that is jo public the DUMB MONEY ! )

Why do I get the feeling this is similar trading via the sports exchanges.
Some retail traders make money. I'd hazard that most lose money (I seem to remember the figure is 70%).

It's quite possibly the same on Betfair.

Remember when you see someone posting a big total that the money didn't come out of the ether, as a reward by the gods for a good trading performance.

It came from other exchange users' pockets.

The lure of trading: It could be YOU!
The reality: It probably won't be.

That might sound negative, but this is a game where many are called but few are chosen, and it's important to be honest with yourself.

Jeff

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