You should never back a horse you fancy without using the other runners in a race to compare to know what price it should be.mhorro wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:11 pmHi Anna,
Thanks for your candid comments, we are all entitled to our opinion and that is how it should be.
I put this scenario to you.
You are a layer and do your home work on a race and home in on a horse you want to lay.
You do all you stats and analysis etc. How do you factor in the horse's handicap mark not being it;s true value? So you might be laying a horse that is better than you think because it has should we say been economically ridden in previous races!!!!
In my opinion that makes you the dumb money correct? You do not have an edge you are on the wrong side of the fence!
I think this is what is wrong with the horse racing game in the UK small owners and trainers are struggling to pay so gambling tops up the coffers!
If we take Forex trading and brokers I bet most of the investment banks have their fingers in some sort of financial commitment in the broker firms, they cannot lose, the retailer shorts and the bank longs or vica versa!!!!!!
I fancy atleast 4 or 5 horses every single day of the week, but I dont back them because most of the time they are underlays. Majority of my winning thoughts are 4/1 shots who should be 6/1 = a bet your going to lose long term.
IMO a handicap mark is purely subjective. Think like a trainer and you will find more winners and certainly more horses "well handicapped"
75% of all runs on all low-grade racing are not as honest as you think. Not suggesting most horses are being cheated but everyone's out to play the system, you have to remember too. Trainers job is to look after and cater for the welfare of horse. Punters need to know that the majority of horses can only stay fit for approx 6 weeks and can take as much as 12 weeks to get a horse fit. Knowing and working on that will give you an edge.
There are exceptions, the best horses are honest triers and will win all year round just because they have the will to win. You can get good horses without ability, again they are consistant because they want it- find one of these in its peak fitness you have a massive edge.
Another note. People are so hung up on the distance of a horse, what I have learned is how much a horse can change over the years. Time and time again you will find horses who have struggled over say 7f in his younger days... then spends his career running 8f,9,f and 10f. Eventually, that horse will actually have a preference to winning over 8f. The come out of form... all of sudden run over 7f and win a string at that distance. Horses change just like us and it can happen quickly.