Steamers & Drifters

[firlandsfarm]

So you go with your gut Jim ... that's trading, preception/prediction into the future ... I was asking a simpler question ... how much does it have to move and over what timespan for you to say ... "That's a Steamer/Drifter" ... maybe people don't think about it, they just do it but I'm thinking is it 10% over 5 mins, maybe 20% since Morning Prices ... I'm not looking for what makes you trade, I'm just looking for you telling a mate down the pub that XYZ horse was a Steamer/Drifter. We talk of Steamers/Drifters I just wondered what people see as a Steamer/Drifter.

[ShaunWhite]

I just wondered what people see as a Steamer/Drifter.

I characterise it as a price that hasn't had any big pull backs...yet.

I don't think there is actually a dictionary def of timescales and amounts, it's more of an adjective than a noun.

[Derek27]

It's a bit like asking how much do you have to weigh to be officially fat (obese). A BMI of 30 is a bit harsh but we all know a fat man when we see one. (It seems there's a distinction between obese and fat!).

I just look at the graph. Whether you decide to call a significant move a steamer/drifter makes no odds.

[ruthlessimon]

Here's an interesting thought experiment.

This gets put alongside the "non-movers" if we measure a steam in IP% from start to end. Is that fair?

[ruthlessimon]

I characterise it as a price that hasn't had any big pull backs...yet.

& "big" is??

I think a major problem, is that it's easy to label what a steamer/drifter is. But devising something to capture that steamer or drifter - now it gets tricky (tricky to the point of failure).

Because your "big pullbacks" are potentially very valuable entries to the steamer/drifter

[ruthlessimon]

& here's why it's tricky.

caveat, this is an extremely basic strategy, & this is only using April's markets:



A trader punting a lay if the fav drifted 15 ticks lost less money, than the trader punting a lay if the fav drifted 5 ticks.

& the graph gives us a clue as to why.

Frequency. There were simply way less markets that drifted 15 ticks. & when they did drift 15 ticks the entry time was so late, there was no time to damage that trader with a powerful reversal

So joining a trend early isn't necessarily good; & my data suggests it's quite a bit worse (-250ticks vs -120ticks).

[firlandsfarm]

I don't think there is actually a dictionary def of timescales and amounts, it's more of an adjective than a noun.

I appreciate that Shaun, that's why I thought it might be interesting to see what timescales and amounts people do apply.

[firlandsfarm]

Simon are they graphs for laying the Fav when it's price drifts by 5/15 ticks and holding until the race is run? The line showing the loss incurred? Interesting ... is the loss too small per race to make taking a contrary position profitable and in the end commission is the only winner!

[Derek27]

If a horse is backed from 8 down to 5, does it really matter whether or not it's classed as a steamer?

Numbers speak louder than words!

[firlandsfarm]

If a horse is backed from 8 down to 5, does it really matter whether or not it's classed as a steamer?

Not at all and I never suggested it mattered, I was just interested in what in people's mind makes a horse a Steamer or Drifter, it's a purely academic question ... same as if a meal is big or small does it really matter if it's classed as big or small so long as it satisfies? But if someone comments on a restaurant and says the portions are big or small you tend to have an expectation.

[ruthlessimon]

Simon are they graphs for laying the Fav when it's price drifts by 5/15 ticks and holding until the race is run? The line showing the loss incurred? Interesting ... is the loss too small per race to make taking a contrary position profitable and in the end commission is the only winner!

No, they're all pre-off. The end of each trade is exactly 00:00:00.

That's correct it's showing the cumulative loss had you performed the strategy throughout April.

Good question. It's hard to gauge - although I'm inclined to say no, the trade reversed can work:



This is the 5tick entry graph, with the trades in order from "worst to best". What's interesting is visually far more are over than -10 threshold than above the +10 threshold.

Overlaying the winners to losers they seem to be outperforming across every aspect. Not only are they more frequent, but you lose more each time

[firlandsfarm]

No, they're all pre-off. The end of each trade is exactly 00:00:00.

OK, sorry Simon but for clarity ... are you saying monitor price over "T" minutes before the off and if the price moves out by 5 ticks at any time within the T minutes then open a trade and close at BSP?

I'm inclined to say ... the trade reversed can work

Now you are doing this on laying a 5 point drift so "worse" is good if backing and therefore there are more +10 backers than -10.

I have always wondered if Steamers and Drifters were viewed the wrong way round and this was in the back of my mind when I asked the question. I'm thinking back a Drifter because the odds are likely to go out too far and lay a Steamer because they come in too far. Same as financials, they always run too far and have a correction. The difference here though is because race betting is finite with a closing deadline they may not always get the chance to be corrected.

Time for me to start collecting pre-off data I think, I had better go and find that spreadsheet.

[ruthlessimon]

OK, sorry Simon but for clarity ... are you saying monitor price over "T" minutes before the off and if the price moves out by 5 ticks at any time within the T minutes then open a trade and close at BSP?

Yes, that's how the experiment was setup.

Data capture begins at 5mins. The price of the fav @ 5mins is recorded & remembered. If the fav drifts 5 ticks from this price, lay it. Exit the position at 0mins. The problem is, every variation (no ticks, 5 ticks, 10 ticks, 20 ticks) came out negative - therefore the data suggests if blindly trading by price, never lay the fav. There's something amiss.

Now you are doing this on laying a 5 point drift so "worse" is good if backing and therefore there are more +10 backers than -10.

That's right & that's what the data suggests. If you lay a 5tick drift, it's more common that it will actually steam 10ticks after your entry.

I have always wondered if Steamers and Drifters were viewed the wrong way round and this was in the back of my mind when I asked the question. I'm thinking back a Drifter because the odds are likely to go out too far and lay a Steamer because they come in too far. Same as financials, they always run too far and have a correction. The difference here though is because race betting is finite with a closing deadline they may not always get the chance to be corrected.

Time for me to start collecting pre-off data I think, I had better go and find that spreadsheet.

Now you've hit a really interesting crux, & I mentioned this in a previous post. Trading a steamer/drifter, is totally different to labelling a steamer/drifter. This is where "strength & weakness" enter the game. A "drifter" isn't necessarily "weak" (& that's what the above data suggests). Maybe another thread labeled "Strength & Weakness" is needed. however, I doubt that thread will get replies publicly.

For instance, take the above trades. The hypothesis of the trade idea was: If the fav drifts 5 ticks, it should drift further - that hypothesis simplified to two words - (drifter, weakness). "Drifter" past tense, "weakness", future tense.

[napshnap]

ruthlessimon

How do you define in your calculations that runner is a fav? If its price is 1 tick lower than 2nd favs price - is it still a fav?

that hypothesis simplified to two words - (drifter, weakness).

Do you mean drift trend weakness?

[firlandsfarm]

[The hypothesis of the trade idea was: If the fav drifts 5 ticks, it should drift further

Simon, thanks for your input into this, subjects need to be explored to be advanced. I wasn't actually thinking it "should drift further", I was thinking it now offers more (back) value making it more attractive if it doesn't correct back in or if it does correct then it is tradeable so a possible mix between a trade and if that fails then a value bet (ignoring an in-running trade out which brings another variable into the mix). Your research is sufficient to make me take it further, but first I need to gather the data, all my data is about the runners and riders ... I have no trading data to delve into. Again, thanks for your help.