firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Wed May 02, 2018 5:17 pm
OK, sorry Simon but for clarity ... are you saying monitor price over "T" minutes before the off and if the price moves out by 5 ticks at any time within the T minutes then open a trade and close at BSP?
Yes, that's how the experiment was setup.
Data capture begins at 5mins. The price of the fav @ 5mins is recorded & remembered. If the fav drifts 5 ticks from this price, lay it. Exit the position at 0mins. The problem is,
every variation (no ticks, 5 ticks, 10 ticks, 20 ticks) came out negative - therefore the data suggests if blindly trading by price, never lay the fav. There's something amiss.
firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Wed May 02, 2018 5:17 pm
Now you are doing this on laying a 5 point drift so "worse" is good if backing and therefore there are more +10 backers than -10.
That's right & that's what the data suggests. If you lay a 5tick drift, it's more common that it will actually steam 10ticks after your entry.
firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Wed May 02, 2018 5:17 pm
I have always wondered if Steamers and Drifters were viewed the wrong way round and this was in the back of my mind when I asked the question. I'm thinking back a Drifter because the odds are likely to go out too far and lay a Steamer because they come in too far. Same as financials, they always run too far and have a correction. The difference here though is because race betting is finite with a closing deadline they may not always get the chance to be corrected.
Time for me to start collecting pre-off data I think, I had better go and find that spreadsheet.
Now you've hit a really interesting crux, & I mentioned this in a previous post.
Trading a steamer/drifter, is totally different to labelling a steamer/drifter. This is where "strength & weakness" enter the game. A "drifter" isn't necessarily "weak" (& that's what the above data suggests). Maybe another thread labeled "Strength & Weakness" is needed.
however, I doubt that thread will get replies publicly.
For instance, take the above trades. The hypothesis of the trade idea was:
If the fav drifts 5 ticks, it should drift further - that hypothesis simplified to two words - (drifter, weakness). "Drifter" past tense, "weakness", future tense.