the weight of money

[ruthlessimon]

Sorry I don't understand why a change in the volume at a given price, should give me insight tips of what could happen next (up or down)

Here's the equity curve (cumulative ticks gained) of 2 linked backing strategies (horse racing though)

1. IP% - This strat backs after the fav steams x%, exit 0mins
2. Vol - This strat backs after x no.of £xxx sized back bets hit the fav (aggressive bets), exit 0mins

[arbitrage16]

Sorry I don't understand why a change in the volume at a given price, should give me insight tips of what could happen next (up or down)

Here's the equity curve (cumulative ticks gained) of 2 linked backing strategies (horse racing though)

1. IP% - This strat backs after the fav steams x%, exit 0mins
2. Vol - This strat backs after x no.of £xxx sized back bets hit the fav (aggressive bets), exit 0mins

Hi - what is IP%?

Also, to the untrained eye this looks like you are revealing an edge that could be automated - am I missing something?

[ruthlessimon]

Hi - what is IP%?

Also, to the untrained eye this looks like you are revealing an edge that could be automated - am I missing something?

IP is basically price. An x IP% steam, see's a back entry.

It could be automated. However, a time-based strategy (literally "back at x mins"); is almost as profitable as the vol based one - because it's a guaranteed trade every single race. More bumpy equity curve, but more trades. I cannot yet fathom why a time-based strategy should be so profitable. Before I did the experiment, I predicted that the time-based trade should be the least profitable - because it's random! There's no skill to backing at x mins!

[BetScalper]

Sorry I don't understand why a change in the volume at a given price, should give me insight tips of what could happen next (up or down)

Here's the equity curve (cumulative ticks gained) of 2 linked backing strategies (horse racing though)

1. IP% - This strat backs after the fav steams x%, exit 0mins
2. Vol - This strat backs after x no.of £xxx sized back bets hit the fav (aggressive bets), exit 0mins

Hi - what is IP%?

Also, to the untrained eye this looks like you are revealing an edge that could be automated - am I missing something?

But in BA you can't log the size of the back bets, its volume only, so how do you know its back/lay money ?

[ruthlessimon]

But in BA you can't log the size of the back bets, its volume only, so how do you know its back/lay money ?

I combine it to price i.e.

[BetScalper]

But in BA you can't log the size of the back bets, its volume only, so how do you know its back/lay money ?

I combine it to price i.e.

Does that mean 14k was matched between those odds highlighted ? How does that mean that selection will win etc ?

[ruthlessimon]

Does that mean 14k was matched between those odds highlighted ? How does that mean that selection will win etc ?

That's right yah.

Exactly, that's the type of thing I'm testing. "Where are these big players getting involved, & do they pre-empt further movement? do they pre-empt winners? What's better x10 £1000+ bets or x1 20000 bet? Are consecutive backs better?" I find this sort of thing fascinating. Just wish there was more content on this type of analysis

[BetScalper]

Does that mean 14k was matched between those odds highlighted ? How does that mean that selection will win etc ?

That's right yah.

Exactly, that's the type of thing I'm testing. "Where are these big players getting involved, & do they pre-empt further movement? do they pre-empt winners? What's better x10 £1000+ bets or x1 20000 bet? Are consecutive backs better?" I find this sort of thing fascinating. Just wish there was more content on this type of analysis

I would imagine that in-running the following could be something to look at:

- WOM < 30 and selections matched volume has increased by 10%.

This should give at least a 1 tick move even with the 2 second delay on horses.

There is less chance of spoof money in-play on horses as there is a good chance it could get filled.

Its probably safe to say if a selections matched volume before the start was 40k and in-play it increases to 44k or more that something significant is occurring, even for a short period.

[BetScalper]

Sorry I don't understand why a change in the volume at a given price, should give me insight tips of what could happen next (up or down)

Here's the equity curve (cumulative ticks gained) of 2 linked backing strategies (horse racing though)

1. IP% - This strat backs after the fav steams x%, exit 0mins
2. Vol - This strat backs after x no.of £xxx sized back bets hit the fav (aggressive bets), exit 0mins

I found this very interesting. So much so that I put together a pretty simple trigger to monitor the volume/price for the top 4 in-running and scalp them on the last 3 races of the day. Too my surprise, I made more ticks profit today than I have all week. I used 20% increase in the selections volume to initiate the trades. Obviously it needs allot more testing, so I am going to run it across all the races tomorrow.

Thanks for posting this. Could be a lightbulb moment, for me anyway.

[ruthlessimon]

Thanks for posting this. Could be a lightbulb moment, for me anyway.

Np - Just thought something like this makes a change from the 'usual'

[BetScalper]

Thanks for posting this. Could be a lightbulb moment, for me anyway.

Np - Just thought something like this makes a change from the 'usual'

+ 1

[teambulldog]

Hi Betscalper & Ruthlessimon,
How did you get on with 20% increase in the selections volume to initiate the trades today ?????
This WOM and vol % has my head going round and round trying to get an edge etc...
Please keep posting chaps as great to hear others ideas
Thanks
Julian

[BetScalper]

Hi Betscalper & Ruthlessimon,
How did you get on with 20% increase in the selections volume to initiate the trades today ?????
This WOM and vol % has my head going round and round trying to get an edge etc...
Please keep posting chaps as great to hear others ideas
Thanks
Julian

Hi,

I didn't have much luck backing them.

So, what I did was basically the reverse.

Example:

- Top 3 ordered by Last Traded Price
- Volume increase < x Amount
- WOM > 70 (Inner Weighting only)
- Lay by Book%
- Green Up (Reverse Market Price)

The results overall were fairly positive.

More testing needed to see what x Amount works best.

Trying to figure out a way of laying the one that has the lowest volume increase out of the top 3 as this would indicate that the backers don't fancy it.

[ruthlessimon]

Hi Betscalper & Ruthlessimon,
How did you get on with 20% increase in the selections volume to initiate the trades today ?????
This WOM and vol % has my head going round and round trying to get an edge etc...
Please keep posting chaps as great to hear others ideas
Thanks
Julian

Because volume takes a lot of cleaning (& my April data is a bit messy) , I spent today looking at just time & it's another fascinating avenue

This is an identical strategy, deployed over different (but equal) time intervals (2mth sample) - & that last graph is totally crazy!

[teambulldog]

Thanks for replying chaps,,,
yes that last chart was funny????
Betscalper was yours inplay ??? do you green up for X£ proffit or tics amount IE 2-4 tic trade etc ???
Good work chaps
Julian