Halliday wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 11:21 am
ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:34 am
I'm looking forward to seeing what seehorse says about how you can find value just by looking at the ladders, he makes money on both trading and gambling and keeps good records.
If your betting on horses then “value” is the key to making it successful.looking at ladders etc on Betangel will not help you find “value” during your selection process, as it’s an individual opinion.
If I think a horse priced up at say 6/4 should be an even money chance ( based on form, trainer, course , draw , going class etc or any other factor) then that represents value. Someone else might think based on similar or different criteria that or should be say 2/1 or greater ..and would think it poor value .
No chart or ladder would influence their view as to the value of a particular horses odds .( eg if you think a change in the going has given a big advantage to horses drawn low, and that one of them might represent “value “ because the odds don’t reflect the perceived draw advantage, etc )
Equally if someone thought a horse had a excellent chance of winning but represented poor value, then its highly unlikely that person would back it.
Imo their are many ways to find value and I have to disagree. You can find value purely from looking at the ladders. What happens when 3 horses are fancied in one race? 3 can’t all be gambled which usually results in something drifting. Especially favourites. So often you see 2.0 priced fav drift out to 2.5 just because 2nd and 3rd is. Backed.
There are generally 2 ways to gamble.
1- just taking value. Getting 25s in something which should be priced 10s- (Dave Nevison is this sort of gambler)
2- looking for horses who you genuinely think will win before deciding if the price is value.
Imo- best way to do it. But spending hours through the form book to find that horse... to than say can’t back it at that price is incredibly difficult to do and I think why so many fail.
Number 1 is very boring as your not forming an opinion but using ratings etc to work out a price.
If you have no interest in racing but want to gamble 1. Would be the way to go. If your a mug punter and love to bet number 2 but your already at odds as it is a very difficult skill to learn.
All my selections I post on the forum, excluding some inside info are only listed when I believe they are 100% overlays.
If I tip something at 5/1. (6s) I have priced it 3.0 or less.
I’d say about 60/70% of my opinions don’t even get posted here. No point posting a 6/4 shot when I have priced it 2/1.
As a point to what Halliday says, I have learned the hard way over the years but anyone serious about betting to make some money. No matter who says what.
When considering the draw, odds, going of a horse leave them last.
Find your selections before any of that.
I have mate who will look at a drawbias or the going conditions before looking for a horse. Such the wrong thing to do.
The draw and going should only be used to cosider actually placing the bet.
For example. I like horse 1 because he’s improving, ran nicely at the track last time. Looks a weak race. He only has favourite to beat who I think is week.
Than... ooo he’s drawn 9 from 9 and I am not sure he likes this fast ground.
In this occasion I would only back this with a 200% over lay.
If I think he’s 4/1 I won’t consider it unless he’s 14/1.
If you know the ground is good to firm and their is a draw bias. You will automatically look for well drawn fast ground horses, which automatically put you at odds because your looking for a horse that may actually not be as strong as it should be.
It just makes you a good gambler, and among a select group of gamblers/bettors able to dodge all the minefields and sustain +ev.
