How do spot the money that is entering

[Greco]

Cheers Dallas, just found an old thread, trying to get the correct interval setting with the refresh rate is proving difficult

[ruthlessimon]

These kind of stats are fine, but what allowances are made for opposition from other runners? If a runner "steaming 3%" (LOL!) is backed purely on that then of course it's not going to work because there are at least 5 other factors I can think of that determine the veracity of that move.

Really? If markets are generally normally distributed (as Peter suggests), you'd assume the biggest moves are very profitable to fade (almost blindly).

That said I agree, & looking at how the other runners respond is certainly an interesting avenue (but a looong one! due to the almost limitless no. of combinations).

[arbitrage16]

These kind of stats are fine, but what allowances are made for opposition from other runners? If a runner "steaming 3%" (LOL!) is backed purely on that then of course it's not going to work because there are at least 5 other factors I can think of that determine the veracity of that move.

Really? If markets are generally normally distributed (as Peter suggests), you'd assume the biggest moves are very profitable to fade (almost blindly).

Don't understand this part, could you please clarify?

Limitless? I'd say fairly consistent patterns when one knows what to look for...

[ruthlessimon]

Don't understand this part, could you please clarify?

I'd define a contrarian trade as one that is based on mean-reversion. & the clue is in the name, "mean"-reversion - we expect the price to return to "the average".

Let's say for a certain market type the average move of the fav to the low is +2%. If the market is down +5%, it should, in theory, be profitable to lay that move (as, on average, the low is meant to be 2%).

Limitless? I'd say fairly consistent patterns when one knows what to look for...

Let's say the favourite has steamed 3%.

Does how the 2nd has moved during this period affect the trade (Possible moves of the 2nd runner +5%, +4%, +3%, +2%, +1%, 0%, -1%, -2%, -3% etc etc). You could then add the 3rd runner, 4th runner etc. Or you could change the move of the fav to 5% etc

But all the above are just hypotheses, & I know Peter would probably cringe at those methods detailed above. There's probably much easier & more effective ways of understanding the big moves & how to trade them

[arbitrage16]

So interesting to speak to someone who approaches the market in a completely different way to me.

From that explanation such an approach seems absolutely ripe for confirmation bias "I'll lay this as it's hit the 5% mark...oh, why isn't this reversing?"

Well, the market is a mechanism, and what is happening with the opposition is surely more important?

btw, is this all automated for you?

[ruthlessimon]

So interesting to speak to someone who approaches the market in a completely different way to me.

& vice versa I'm looking to learn new approaches just as much as the next guy. The reason I'm into data because I struggle to understand the discretionary/intuition aspects when it comes to trade ideas

From that explanation such an approach seems absolutely ripe for confirmation bias "I'll lay this as it's hit the 5% mark...oh, why isn't this reversing?"

Shaun literally reminded me of this an hr ago - but the idea is "cut & try again lower". Which I was aware of, but completely forgot about - until Shaun reminded me very easy to get tunnel vision!

What I find especially brilliant, is the fact that confirmation bias you speak of - actually gets incorporated into future trades. i.e. That big loser has shifted the average. The strategy constantly moves & adjusts to the market, so long as the trader constantly updates the figures on the various averages they're tracking.

Well, the market is a mechanism, and what is happening with the opposition is surely more important?

I'd say a cautious yes. I setup a sheet to test single runner strategies vs strategies based on that same runner (but using the opposition to trade). However, atm I don't believe my own results

btw, is this all automated for you?

More theoretical than automated atm but these are the avenues I look at when trying to improve

[Lucacrebbe]

I've always assumed this is people exiting their positions (after a 20 tick steam), and layers deciding it has gone far enough and it's time to oppose...?

But it's the backers who are exiting, which in theory should reverse the market? The fact it doesn't suggest new traders are entering? Coupled with layers which have your opinion, causes a 2nd downward breakout. Almost contrarian, contrarian

Unfortunately, I cannot test it atm; but measuring those areas is something I've always wanted to do

I have a question for you ruth.,

I saw in one of your post that you follow the WvAP to trading horses.

Basically the Wvap is an average of the previous volume x price, so do you use this and you said ''when the price is so far below/above the VWAP I know it's time to back/to lay''

You could apply this because mVWAP is a measurament of previous volume x price, so if you are pre-race and you see that an horse is so far below the WvAP you decide to lay because you know that ''on average'' the price and the volume will go up?

[Lucacrebbe]

I hope Luca understands all this or the questions will follow.

No, honestly I don't understand what they are talking about, also the fact that I am not native english doesn't help. I don't know if they are talking about small moves from layers, from backers... it's too complicated for me to ask because I don't even understand what they are talking, so better not to ask. And just to focus on simplier things

[ruthlessimon]

if you are pre-race and you see that an horse is so far below the WvAP you decide to lay because you know that ''on average'' the price and the volume will go up?

That's the idea certainly. If those early trader's knew what they were doing, you'd assume the final price would be close to Mwap.

However, from what I've seen so far, trading those big divergences isn't great (looks almost random). But I need to do further to tests

[Lucacrebbe]

if you are pre-race and you see that an horse is so far below the WvAP you decide to lay because you know that ''on average'' the price and the volume will go up?

That's the idea certainly. If those early trader's knew what they were doing, you'd assume the final price would be close to Mwap.

However, from what I've seen so far, trading those big divergences isn't great (looks almost random). But I need to do further to tests

You use Excel to build up and calculate WVAP, or is it in Bet Angel default?

[Jukebox]

I think you'll find that the fast increasing amounts of money that come into a race pre off means that the WAP tends towards the current price rather than the other way around as it gets swamped.

[ruthlessimon]

You use Excel to build up and calculate WVAP,

You can; but I take it straight from BF

http://www.betfairpromo.com/betfairsp/prices/

(Mwap not Vwap)

[Derek27]

I have a question for you ruth.,

[Derek27]

I hope Luca understands all this or the questions will follow.

No, honestly I don't understand what they are talking about, also the fact that I am not native english doesn't help. I don't know if they are talking about small moves from layers, from backers... it's too complicated for me to ask because I don't even understand what they are talking, so better not to ask. And just to focus on simplier things

I don't understand much of it either.

[Lucacrebbe]

Anyway I think that this is a sustinable strategy JUST when the pre race odds are too away from the MWVAP, because I assume that the market partecipants in the horse races are not always the same of the last time for the same horse, you know? As seen that they are not always the same, you can't have the exact same behave everytime with the same horse, and maybe the reason why MWVAP (volume x price) today is below the last time MWVAP, it's just because there are different market partecipants, who will not behave as the same of the last time