Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

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Kafkaesque
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Kai wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:43 am
gazuty wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:02 am
Fair enough - so something more concrete.

We should be focusing on mass mask production...
Yeah, I think that's the most logical course of action for the time being, like I previously mentioned in that same post I think. Isolate until we have enough masks, then use them to buy time until a working vaccine gets made. Big efforts should be made to increase mask production but also to educate the population on how to make homemade masks as well in a pinch, which materials best to use etc.

Speaking of which, there are plenty of DIY video tutorials on how to create masks but I would love to see this sort of education come from official channels too, instead of actively telling people not to use masks.

How to quickly make the most basic cotton masks : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yP_fnr4oVY

How to make advanced HEPA filter masks : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6d3twpHwis
It's a valid point (with regards it should be coming from official sources). In fact, it's so valid and blatantly obvious that the fact it's not happening leads me to think, the reason is that it tells us something about how politicians and/or their expert advisors view the population.

Which would be.....if the population is told officially "this is how you make a mask" then, even if they're told it's not a 100% solution, we'll have enforce a stricter policy, in one form or another, if containment continues to be the priority.

Because should make-shift masks take off, there's bound to be too many daft ones about who'll be uninformed about, or simply don't care about, asymptomatic spread who'll be out and about, thinking everyone else, especially those who's sick, will be wearing masks, so it'll be fine. Or people going "I do have this weird cough and have been on the toilet six times the last hour, but I'm out of Frosties and really want some tomorrow morning; I'll just make a mask and pop round the shop, it'll be fine."

Whether the politicians would be right about that is of course a matter of opinion. I might have given away what I think.
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Kafkaesque
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:24 am
Kai wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:43 am
gazuty wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:02 am
Fair enough - so something more concrete.

We should be focusing on mass mask production...
Yeah, I think that's the most logical course of action for the time being, like I previously mentioned in that same post I think. Isolate until we have enough masks, then use them to buy time until a working vaccine gets made. Big efforts should be made to increase mask production but also to educate the population on how to make homemade masks as well in a pinch, which materials best to use etc.

Speaking of which, there are plenty of DIY video tutorials on how to create masks but I would love to see this sort of education come from official channels too, instead of actively telling people not to use masks.

How to quickly make the most basic cotton masks : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yP_fnr4oVY

How to make advanced HEPA filter masks : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6d3twpHwis
Good info.

A couple of other ideas.


masks1.png


mask2.png


masks3.png
These alternative protection solutions just goes to show you need a new election in the UK. Boris Johnson isn't the right option as PM in these times.






Clearly, the one who should be ruling supreme during these testing times needs to be Lord Buckethead.
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Derek27
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Kafkaesque wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:09 pm
Boris Johnson isn't the right option as PM in these times.
What time would he be the right option? ;)
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Derek27
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Can't believe Dr Catherine Calderwood, the Scottish chief hypocrite and medical officer, is allowed to keep her job after blatantly ignoring her own advice. What sort of encouragement does it send to people stuck in flats and tower blocks during nice weather if she can make weekend visits to her second home?

Don't know if the police have the power to fine up there but she should have the book thrown at her as well as lose her job.
Archery1969
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Boris been taken to hospital.
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Euler
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Archery1969 wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:22 pm
Boris been taken to hospital.
Just saw.
jamesg46
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Euler wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:23 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:22 pm
Boris been taken to hospital.
Just saw.
People about to go crazy if he doesn't make it. Markets will melt.
jamesg46
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I've mentioned it before & will again, if you go to hospital with the virus, say your goodbyes before you leave, no one is coming to say goodbye & the probability is you wont come back to si Hi....

I really hope Boris gets through this.
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Derek27
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That's odd, I've got Sky News on from 11 pm and no mention of it, just the queen's speech. I may have said or suggested before on this board that I despise BJ, but I'd like to wish him and his (much) better half the very best of luck.
jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:40 pm
I've mentioned it before & will again, if you go to hospital with the virus, say your goodbyes before you leave, no one is coming to say goodbye & the probability is you wont come back to si Hi....

I really hope Boris gets through this.
Are you sure? I haven't seen any age-related stats but hear of a lot of people recovering and leaving hospital.
rik
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come on he checked in because he still had a temperature after 10 days, very likely he will recover
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Derek27
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:15 pm
That's odd, I've got Sky News on from 11 pm and no mention of it, just the queen's speech
My mistake, I had SSR on when they switch to a news-like channel, so I thought it was the news. :)
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Derek27
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:45 pm
Can't believe Dr Catherine Calderwood, the Scottish chief hypocrite and medical officer, is allowed to keep her job after blatantly ignoring her own advice. What sort of encouragement does it send to people stuck in flats and tower blocks during nice weather if she can make weekend visits to her second home?

Don't know if the police have the power to fine up there but she should have the book thrown at her as well as lose her job.
Stupid of Nicola Sturgeon to stand by her, but she's resigned now. :D

Apparently, it was a mistake due to human error. :lol: Much like a bank robber getting caught, a mistake and PR error made by a human. :lol:
mobius
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Coronavirus: Scotland's chief medical officer resigns over lockdown trips
5 hours ago
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52177171
and there's some hope for Boris
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gazuty
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Unfortunately this is a pay wall article - https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-e ... 406-p54hie

It sets out in economic detail the earlier argument that I raised, that (at least for Australia) as a nation we are spending (via economic loss) far too much on each life saved. The author has some hard facts about how much we as a society (in Australia) are prepared to spend on cancer drugs and road safety. And then does a calculation of lives lost from loosening some of the social distancing restrictions vs economic benefits.
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Kai
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gazuty wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:27 pm
Unfortunately this is a pay wall article - https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-e ... 406-p54hie
FYI with a bit of creativity one can get around paywall articles in a number of ways. When you refresh the page you get a split second before it locks down, during which you can quickly press ctrl+a to select all text and copy paste it in notepad to read, or take a quick screenshot, or record a video etc. Haven't read the article but only took a moment to copy paste it below for the sake of your argument.
Sam Lovick of Australian Financial Review wrote:
Six million dollars for each life saved is too high


Last week, three close friends and family lost their jobs because of COVID-19. Two were in hospitality, unsurprising perhaps, but the other was in engineering.

The economic costs of this pandemic are clearly huge. Which led me to think not that the cure is worse than the disease but, more constructively, are there ways to lower the costs?

Let’s not be shy about balancing the economy against health. Governments do it all the time. The Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee rejects 69 per cent of anti-cancer drugs because they are not cost-effective.

This means the drug would cost the government (that is, society – us) more than $30,000-$70,000 for each (quality adjusted) year of life saved. Anything higher is too much; $4 million for a drug that saves a newborn for 80 happy years appears to be the yardstick.

Broadly the same approach is used in road safety: the value of a life saved is between $4 million and $8 million. We should view COVID-19 through a similar lens.

COVID-19 typically causes mild flu-like symptoms, but for some, mostly the elderly and those suffering from other conditions like heart disease or diabetes (co-morbidities), it can cause life-threatening pneumonia. There is no vaccine against COVID-19 (unlike flu), no drug cure, nor any likely to be found soon. We are left with public health and social distancing to stem the spread.

These aim to do two things: reduce the rate of new infections so that hospitals and intensive care don’t get overwhelmed by new cases — "flattening the curve". This is important because mortality is sharply higher without intensive care, and to reduce the number of cases over the course of the pandemic.

We are seeing the beginnings of good news in Australia. The number of new cases is slowing. This has been achieved by shutting down the discretionary economy and, let’s not be coy, forcing people to stay at home – an aggressive social distancing stance. This will flatten the curve, but ...

Our modelling, which marries disease modelling to economic outcomes, suggests that these measures could cost as much as 1.9 per cent of GDP for each month they are in place. Government stimuli on the back of borrowing will reduce the impact on the hardest hit, but don’t change the fundamentals – they borrow against next year’s GDP.

Because we live in a global sea of infections, and infections like COVID-19 are hard to eradicate, when we relax the rules there is a high likelihood of a second wave. Second waves are a common feature of pandemics.

Social distancing, a high degree of national and social isolation, and the economic consequences thereof, will have to continue in some form for some time to prevent this.

Putting it all together, you can reach the somewhat alarming figure of $6 million or more per life saved.

Can we reduce this cost? The modelling suggests that we can, relying upon some of the features of COVID-19.

The people most likely to need intensive care and most likely to die are identifiable. Strict, very strict, isolation of that cohort is key so that they have a low likelihood of infection.

The second arm, and perhaps the most controversial, is to allow COVID-19 to spread through the community in a controlled fashion, necessarily involving significant relaxation of social distancing for those at lower risk. COVID-19 will spread. Some of this group will need hospitalisation. Hospitals will be under stress.

Some will die, but far fewer than the number that would die if those at risk were not in isolation. Controlling the spread is managed through temporary quarantining of households where someone shows flu-like symptoms, supported by extensive testing.

The modelling predicts that after six to eight months enough of the population will have been infected and recovered to stop the spread, to confer some herd immunity.

We will have engineered an environment where it is relatively safe for those at risk, relatively safe for tourists, for foreign students, and for the Australians who meet them. Not perfectly safe, but sufficiently safe to allow the economy to bounce back.

Perhaps that is what our governments are planning once the curve is flat.

How do hospitals decide who gets the available ventilator?
We do not know all the characteristics of COVID-19 but we can make some predictions. Quarantining those at risk, quarantining households with suspected infections, but otherwise minimal closures of schools, businesses, gyms and sporting events could save 90 per cent of the lives saved by our current aggressive social distancing stance at much lower cost.

Current stage-three restrictions for six months would probably cost around 13 per cent of GDP – $240 billion. Stage-four restrictions would cost more. More targeted restrictions with relaxed social distancing could reduce this cost by two thirds.

Around 10 per cent fewer lives would be saved, but for the cost of saving those extra lives, we could save up to three times that number through better healthcare or better road safety.
I'm not at all surprised that such an article comes from a financial newspaper. But it's nevertheless very impressive how they were able to accurately measure the value of human life, maybe that should have been the article title.
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