Ok, I've come to the long drawn out conclusion that I just can't hack it as a 'trader' so to speak. A lot of this has to do with me attaching emotions to trades and my general inability to separate losing from being wrong. It's something that I haven't been able to master since I started years ago. I did have a good go at a few bots I but I don't think I can end up in long term profit with the kind of bots I can use BA for.
Anyway long story short I don't want to totally give up on my dream of making a nice little income in the sports betting world, if I am at heart a gambler then how can I use this to my advantage. I've come up with 2 solutions and I'd love to hear some thoughts on this.
1. Value betting. I've recently watched a video that Peter made a while back where he prices up the correct score market and then equates this to what the odds are (cross matching) and what they should be for the various other markets, Over Unders, match odds etc. I think with a little bit of work I could potentially use this to my advantage with a bit of Kelly Criterion staking thrown in for good measure. Is it feasible to find value betting in the exchanges or do the majority of people making value bets use bookies, obviously the odds are higher at bookies however my accounts are gubbed, I can work at my mother's house in theory using a different IP address but I'd rather be able to do this at my own home - Pro, better long term profit - Con - Lots of variance
2. Arbing. This would be me manually finding the arbs using the traditional bookies approach and laying off at the exchange, I did have a little look today at some Win/place arbs using William Hill/Coral and Betfair, luckily WH and Coral are two accounts not gubbed, it was possible to find a few half decent arbs there but I'd have needed pretty sizable stakes to return anything half decent. Pros - Little to no variance at all - Con, large bank roll needed, harder to find decent arbs than value bets.
Time for me to Make a Decision
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spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
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It's a hard one to call because whatever advice people give it all comes down to how you can handle the winning and losing at the end of the day.
Like Tuco says it comes down to you finding the niche that works for you and even then you might find you'd earn more putting those hours into overtime with a lot less hassle and stress. For now I'd take a break away from it all and maybe rethink things in a week when you'll be in a better frame of mind to make decisions more logically.
Like Tuco says it comes down to you finding the niche that works for you and even then you might find you'd earn more putting those hours into overtime with a lot less hassle and stress. For now I'd take a break away from it all and maybe rethink things in a week when you'll be in a better frame of mind to make decisions more logically.
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Diacritical Quark
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Cheers Tuco, I get what you're saying, I like the fact that's it hard but I've spent years at this, everytime I get close to thinking I've got something that coulde be profitable long term it seems to get that little bit further away. I think it's akin to changing your sense of humour for a large part, there's things that are just inherent in us that we can't change. Finding a way of betting that suits our personalities I think is the hardest part. Scalping/nanual trading I certainly lack the discipline for, if you'd had seen me earlier you'd understand. I was trading around cross-over points, had written down a little strategy and everything. Basically wait until the price is coming from below to above a cross over, only 3.0 4.0 and 6.0, lay with £2 and take 25% out at 1,2,3,4 ticks (fave above odds on). Beautiful, all going well, then 3 markets in a row there's a massive flipping spike that essentially kills all profit for not only today but for yesterday too. I can't compete with that!
Anyway I'm just bitching now, I genuinely think value betting or arbing is the way forwards, I'm leaning towards value betting, I've managed to find 4 matches this evening with around a 1-2% ROI so I'll see how I get on as a VB, naturally I need to monitor this over a large enough sample size, I'm not entirely sure what that size needs to be just yet, I have a figure of around 500. Using Kelly Criterion as a staking method I think should at least protect much of the bank from serious variance in the short term.
If you have had success with some bots, then I would plough on with them.
I was a hapless (by my own definition the "worlds worst") punter and a really bad manual trader. I've gambled since I was a kid, love it, love horse racing but i had no discipline when it came to placing bets. I was a lousy form student and my gut ruled my head every single time. Chasing loses was the only thing i was consistent at, and we all know how that ends up.
As soon as I took the active, in the moment, decision making out of my hands and put all my energy into defining rules and ideas I started to have success. It took about 3 years to get them to hum but now they have been making me a full time living for the last 6. So it is possible.
They are completely automated, run 24/7 and if i don't want to do anything in relation to them I don't have to. It gives complete day to day freedom. Obviously they still need work, data needs to be maintained, new ideas need to be trialled, old ideas need to be tweaked, and they probably make a lower average return per market than a manual trader will make, but it is very much doable. I can be in 5-6k+ markets a month so it doesn't take a big average return per market to turn that into a full time income.
Good luck with whatever you do.
I was a hapless (by my own definition the "worlds worst") punter and a really bad manual trader. I've gambled since I was a kid, love it, love horse racing but i had no discipline when it came to placing bets. I was a lousy form student and my gut ruled my head every single time. Chasing loses was the only thing i was consistent at, and we all know how that ends up.
As soon as I took the active, in the moment, decision making out of my hands and put all my energy into defining rules and ideas I started to have success. It took about 3 years to get them to hum but now they have been making me a full time living for the last 6. So it is possible.
They are completely automated, run 24/7 and if i don't want to do anything in relation to them I don't have to. It gives complete day to day freedom. Obviously they still need work, data needs to be maintained, new ideas need to be trialled, old ideas need to be tweaked, and they probably make a lower average return per market than a manual trader will make, but it is very much doable. I can be in 5-6k+ markets a month so it doesn't take a big average return per market to turn that into a full time income.
Good luck with whatever you do.
Persistence
"Persistence is what makes the impossible possible, the possible likely and the likely definite."
"Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent."
"Persistence is what makes the impossible possible, the possible likely and the likely definite."
"Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent."
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Diacritical Quark
- Posts: 175
- Joined: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:55 pm
You see I didn't have anything sustainable with the bots, I had a bot running in nearly 1000 markets with £2 stakes, at one point it was nearly £200 profit before it imploded in spectacular style, literally account blowing stuff in a matter of days. Since then I've flip flopped about and the gambler in me has returned with a few months worth of pent up revenge. I love a good loss chase as much as the next gambler and I know I can't manual trade at all.deestar wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:01 pmIf you have had success with some bots, then I would plough on with them.
I was a hapless (by my own definition the "worlds worst") punter and a really bad manual trader. I've gambled since I was a kid, love it, love horse racing but i had no discipline when it came to placing bets. I was a lousy form student and my gut ruled my head every single time. Chasing loses was the only thing i was consistent at, and we all know how that ends up.
As soon as I took the active, in the moment, decision making out of my hands and put all my energy into defining rules and ideas I started to have success. It took about 3 years to get them to hum but now they have been making me a full time living for the last 6. So it is possible.
They are completely automated, run 24/7 and if i don't want to do anything in relation to them I don't have to. It gives complete day to day freedom. Obviously they still need work, data needs to be maintained, new ideas need to be trialled, old ideas need to be tweaked, and they probably make a lower average return per market than a manual trader will make, but it is very much doable. I can be in 5-6k+ markets a month so it doesn't take a big average return per market to turn that into a full time income.
Good luck with whatever you do.
I'm glad you've said that it is possible with bots from BA, I was at the point of researching whether you could be profitable with this kind of bot or whether you needed to go the full on coding route writing custom made stuff.
Value betting and arbing seem very boring propositions to me, and yeah the variance of value betting will just get your emotions going if trading does too so not a solution imo. Not sure regarding viability of arbing but it could be worth considering pursuing something which is not trading that is aligned with your personal strengths. If you put the same time/energy in, you'll probably make more money there
re: emotional attachment to trades,
check out https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-079YIasck
the concept of a state of clarity from the vid is ultimately what you prioritise FIRST before you're thinking about the markets. Only when you're in a calm and alert state ('clarity' ; no hindrances) can you actually perform/execute how you want to in the markets.
The theory is pointless without the experiential application though → You need to use mindfulness each session to monitor when any emotions arise and course-correcting your state back to that state of clarity, only then resume your trading and expect to follow your rules. Emotions are biological action potentials meaning your state has to physically change before you start breaking your rules. Learn to slow down that process between trigger and state change through things like diaphragmatic or box breathing.
Journal your specific triggers. You want to set up your environment (trading strategy, market type, trading plan/behaviours) etc. to prevent all of your triggers wherever possible but at the end of the day you are a human and you have emotions. The goal of [emotional] "self-mastery" is not about becoming a robot, it's about learning to spot and process emotions as a SKILL (stress management) so that you're not letting your amygdala hijack control of your actions. Seasoned meditators have been found to have smaller amygdalas.
Do some reading into the biological nature of the older parts of your brain and what they're trying to do. See if you can bring that into alignment over time (fear negative trading outcomes/desire positive ones) as it will make things much easier but you really don't need to and it can take a long time / far less practical — all you need is to form habits which prevent you from ever find yourself in a situation where you have become SO emotionally aroused that you get hijacked. Catch it annoyances while they're minor and nip them in the bud before continuing.
Regardless of if you continue trading/betting, these are skills that are legit so valuable for stress management in day-to-day life I'd recommend them anyway.
For me I did not make a yearly profit on betfair until year 6 because I never managed my state properly while trading, and of course, I'm the one trading so how was it ever going to work?
re: emotional attachment to trades,
check out https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-079YIasck
the concept of a state of clarity from the vid is ultimately what you prioritise FIRST before you're thinking about the markets. Only when you're in a calm and alert state ('clarity' ; no hindrances) can you actually perform/execute how you want to in the markets.
The theory is pointless without the experiential application though → You need to use mindfulness each session to monitor when any emotions arise and course-correcting your state back to that state of clarity, only then resume your trading and expect to follow your rules. Emotions are biological action potentials meaning your state has to physically change before you start breaking your rules. Learn to slow down that process between trigger and state change through things like diaphragmatic or box breathing.
Journal your specific triggers. You want to set up your environment (trading strategy, market type, trading plan/behaviours) etc. to prevent all of your triggers wherever possible but at the end of the day you are a human and you have emotions. The goal of [emotional] "self-mastery" is not about becoming a robot, it's about learning to spot and process emotions as a SKILL (stress management) so that you're not letting your amygdala hijack control of your actions. Seasoned meditators have been found to have smaller amygdalas.
Do some reading into the biological nature of the older parts of your brain and what they're trying to do. See if you can bring that into alignment over time (fear negative trading outcomes/desire positive ones) as it will make things much easier but you really don't need to and it can take a long time / far less practical — all you need is to form habits which prevent you from ever find yourself in a situation where you have become SO emotionally aroused that you get hijacked. Catch it annoyances while they're minor and nip them in the bud before continuing.
Regardless of if you continue trading/betting, these are skills that are legit so valuable for stress management in day-to-day life I'd recommend them anyway.
For me I did not make a yearly profit on betfair until year 6 because I never managed my state properly while trading, and of course, I'm the one trading so how was it ever going to work?
...and I don't do any automation whatsoever - I very occasionally use a few servants but always whilst I'm in attendance.They are completely automated, run 24/7 and if i don't want to do anything in relation to them I don't have to.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51265169
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_flash_crash
https://www.theworldweekly.com/reader/v ... lash-crash
https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/20 ... washington
I'd be interested in hearing others view on the above. In my opinion Navinder Singh Sarao did nothing wrong - in fact if he managed to get automated bots to crash the price and he was able to exploit the crash by buying at a low price and selling a few minutes later at a much higher price, well done that man - I say fair play to him. All prices are artificial and manipulated anyway, so who knows what the 'correct' price of any stock really is.
literally finished reading this book on my kindle this afternoon (i'm taking a week off, so some related reading does no harmTuco wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:24 pm...and I don't do any automation whatsoever - I very occasionally use a few servants but always whilst I'm in attendance.They are completely automated, run 24/7 and if i don't want to do anything in relation to them I don't have to.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51265169
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_flash_crash
https://www.theworldweekly.com/reader/v ... lash-crash
https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/20 ... washington
I'd be interested in hearing others view on the above. In my opinion Navinder Singh Sarao did nothing wrong - in fact if he managed to get automated bots to crash the price and he was able to exploit the crash by buying at a low price and selling a few minutes later at a much higher price, well done that man - I say fair play to him. All prices are artificial and manipulated anyway, so who knows what the 'correct' price of any stock really is.
). he certainly was very complaint in terms of helping the DOJ and US finance authorities. and yeah, i thought he did no wrong either. in fact, recording all his trades (to try to capture the HFT guys) was almost his undoing but ultimately earned him the total respect of the investigators.early on reading this book, i did wonder about how to apply some of his ideas to the sports markets (spoofing as we know is present, but churning the order to the back of the queue etc and only executing 5% of your trades but with HUGE upside does sound attractive.)
anyway... good read and who knows, maybe on my return next week, I'll implement a few of his ideas from NAVTrader - lol. ok, let's hope I don't get too carried away with the current/new read - https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1555534074
those two are the begining of peters journey. so you havent given up , yor are going back to basics.Diacritical Quark wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:56 pmOk, I've come to the long drawn out conclusion that I just can't hack it as a 'trader' so to speak. term profit with the kind of bots I can use BA for.
Anyway long story short I don't want to totally give up on my dream of making a nice little income in the sports betting world, .
1. Value betting.
2. Arbing.
i am working on my trading and automation, and i havent given myself any timelines, i dont have to take any exams . stress is the number one killer of Creativity. so PAUSE when fun stops, take a walk, play an easy game or physical exercise.swich off the computer and jot down your plan on a piece of paper , hang it on the wall with a diagram representing your steps. CLEAR your cluttered mind , think of one thing at a time.the temptation is always lurking around the corner and you will never finish your original plan.
REMEMBER. its a game of Art and Science. enjoy the art and crunch the science.
how about this as a suggestion.
1.VALUE BETTING.
A. use the advance dutching tool on bet angel, mark your stakes, and back all.
go ahead and click the MARGIN maker.
use a third party software to find a steamer and mark on it.
B. this time use the bookmaking , repeat the steps above.
then use the third party software to catch a drifter.
in BOTH instances you are only required to make one correct judgement and the bet becomes free for you.
2. ARBING
using the same tools / dutching and bookmaker;
A. Dutching.
mark your staking preferences,
dutching is a process of backing all ,or a chosen within the all. but what you do instead is to lay all, this will in return back all at the current lay prices , so that when you submit your bets some of them if not most will be unmatched .
try your trading skills to make all your bets matched at a better price and when you get all mattched , you have officially become a bookmaker.
OR
you can use the automatic button to set your arbs , the atatacthments below will show you the tab to open to get a handle of your arbing automatic tool.
B. Bookmaking.
the above procees in reverse.
TIP>your P/L will show N/A . you can disable this by going into settings. the attatchment below will guide you. NB its not advisable,, but heck it! you are experimenting and may be the only thinng you need to create a ninche for yourself , go for it.
FINALLY
TRADING .
watch the latest video from peter. , i know you have exxplained something similar and you tried the crossovepoints,but the real message is Ratio of
RISK to REWARD. along topic, but if you grasp the fundamentals of it, you will begin to see value in areas you least exepected. so the link is to help you wtach the video again.
HOPE That helps, it keeps me going.
https://youtu.be/MkCAFFFclic
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wearthefoxhat
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A couple of things I can add;
If you have an expectation to make £100 a week from gambling/trading, and you're down £100 in the first 2 days...then disappointment is triggered, and loss chasing to "get back to even" begins...sometimes achieved, sometimes a bigger hole is made.
Having expectation(s) can lead to disappointment(s). It's the prime emotion we all have, in life, in relationships, in ourselves, in others. Recognising it and understanding it is the key.
If you have an expectation to make £100 a week from gambling/trading, and you're down £100 in the first 2 days...then disappointment is triggered, and loss chasing to "get back to even" begins...sometimes achieved, sometimes a bigger hole is made.
Having expectation(s) can lead to disappointment(s). It's the prime emotion we all have, in life, in relationships, in ourselves, in others. Recognising it and understanding it is the key.
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Diacritical Quark
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A couple of interesting perspectives there, thank you. I think since my last bot melted and I tried manual trading again I felt no closer to achieving my goals than I did on day 1. Certainly frustrating but I have at least bought quite a few of you here some beers over the past few weeks in a round about sort of way 
I slept on it and figured out 2 things, value betting isn't going to sit right with me due to the variance involved. Arbing I think you need a fairly hefty account to get a half decent return.
Today has been back to the drawing board, day 1 with a new bot.
I slept on it and figured out 2 things, value betting isn't going to sit right with me due to the variance involved. Arbing I think you need a fairly hefty account to get a half decent return.Today has been back to the drawing board, day 1 with a new bot.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
It's pretty normal to flit between styles/sports/methods when you're struggling. As kai said, all you have to do is one thing well.
You mention automation, that's often seen as the easy out for people with control issues but it's a whole different world of knowledge and skills at least has hard, if not harder, than manual trading. Having an idea and running a bot for a few hundred races isn't going to tell you much regardless of it winning or losing so in a month's time you'll be no further on. But if you want to go that way, then learn the formal methods, analytical techniques and statistics etc and do it properly, don't just go at it half arsed or it'll be equally fruitless unless you're jammy enough to chance upon something.
Pick anything you like, anything you're interested in, and something that you feel you'll still be enjoying doing in 3,4,5 years and just rinse it. Profitable traders usually specialise in a certain sport traded a certain way or at least started that way. Don't be influenced by celebrity traders or even what you see people doing here, find your own groove and own it. I don't know anyone who's sucessful that hasn't done it that way.
You mention automation, that's often seen as the easy out for people with control issues but it's a whole different world of knowledge and skills at least has hard, if not harder, than manual trading. Having an idea and running a bot for a few hundred races isn't going to tell you much regardless of it winning or losing so in a month's time you'll be no further on. But if you want to go that way, then learn the formal methods, analytical techniques and statistics etc and do it properly, don't just go at it half arsed or it'll be equally fruitless unless you're jammy enough to chance upon something.
Pick anything you like, anything you're interested in, and something that you feel you'll still be enjoying doing in 3,4,5 years and just rinse it. Profitable traders usually specialise in a certain sport traded a certain way or at least started that way. Don't be influenced by celebrity traders or even what you see people doing here, find your own groove and own it. I don't know anyone who's sucessful that hasn't done it that way.