Suggestions : Can Bet Angel Model Horse Racing Off Time?

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sphilipmyer
Posts: 8
Joined: Sun Oct 13, 2019 6:23 pm

Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:57 pm

For various reasons horse races regularly go off late.

It is common for automated bets to be fired in at a point relative to the off time.

I'm pretty sure it would be possible to model when the market expects the off time to be using data such as Volume, Time and the Acceleration then Deceleration of Volume.

Firing in a bet at a point relative to the 'expected' off time could then be an option.

I fully understand this type of model would naturally have its limitations but I think it would be a useful addition to the Bet Angel stable.

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johnsheppard
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:00 am
Location: Cairns Australia

Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:55 pm

Hello,

I would agree modelling of this would be super useful. I don't know if it's the kind of thing Betangel would want to get involved in tho. For a start, models can go wrong. Things that can go wrong result in blame from silly people and resultant increased support expense, etc...

You would also need to apply it with historic data. Quiet a bit of it. Because every market trades differently...so I don't think it's a simplistic thing to do...

I haven't experienced it yet myself, but I believe some of the more advanced automation people out there correlate the off time with bookie websites/apis to ensure it's accurate, as Betfair doesn't always get it right... May be a better alternative to trying to model it...or both if you have time, depending how important it is for your strategy...

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Derek27
Posts: 7945
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:03 pm

I'm pretty sure it would be near impossible to model or predict when a race is likely to be off. At best you might be able to predict when traders think a race will be off in two minutes but a horse playing up, jockey injured, horse re-shoed, etc. It would be a lot of work for a best guess, that may not even be accurate half the time.

LinusP
Posts: 1706
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm
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Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:12 pm

Or you could just use the betfair race status api:

https://docs.developer.betfair.com/disp ... Status+API

spreadbetting
Posts: 2739
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:23 pm

Not sure you can model it from market volumes, probably easier to use the race status like Linus suggests

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Derek27
Posts: 7945
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:41 pm

I have no experience of accessing the API directly but noticed this in the link Liam posted: We cannot provide any guarantees regarding the timeliness of the data vs live /broadcasted pictures.

Given markets going in-play on time is barely likely nevermind guaranteed, I wouldn't have much confidence in the race status data.

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CallumPerry
Posts: 463
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:51 pm

Bit of a tangent of a suggestion here but perhaps that time pocket is where an untouched edge may lie as a lot of automation would have greened/red up by that point. Maybe it's an area you could explore manually or semi-automated with a servant?

Leave the automation running and watch near-live pictures. Let the automation continue until you click a button a few seconds before the off.

Like others have said, it would be difficult and maybe not worth Bet Angel's time but could be a good area for you to investigate independently?

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