Bet Angel - Example spreadsheets : Martingale Revisited

Example spreadsheets and comments on example spreadsheets.
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Emmson
Posts: 1570
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:55 pm

grindhog wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:33 pm
Its probably best not for me not to be involved in the site anymore except for browsing. I might have to start up my own club of 1. :D
Most of us have had experiences here where it feels like we're drawing fire for no good reason.

Bear's The Name
Posts: 61
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:04 am

Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:51 am

Reading this Martingale thread brings back memories of an early betting folly, many moons ago.

It was the hot summer of 1989 and myself and a couple of pals were getting into racing. We came up with the foolproof and original plan to double up on the favourites in the betting shop. We had looked at the racing results each day and noticed that there was normally at least one winning favourite at each meeting. We couldn't lose - as long as the favourite wasn't odds on - if it was we would skip that race.

I should point out that we had never heard of the term "Martingale" and thought we had invented this amazing system that no-one had ever thought of before.

Anyway, we set off for the local Ladbrokes on a sunny afternoon, intending to start with a fiver on a six race card, I don't know where it was, all set to make our fortune.

The first couple of races the favourite lost. OK, we thought, we didn't want to win on the first races anyway, third or fourth would be better with larger stakes.

By the time it got to the fourth race, we were getting uneasy and what was worse was that there were joint favourites at 3/1. We picked the one at the top of the price list - it drifted to 7/2 and lost, and you've guessed it, the other one went into 11/4F and won. We had backed the wrong horse.

After the fifth race went down, we were seriously sweating and out of cash. An argument ensued but we felt we had to see it through and all had to go to the cashpoint and get money out to scrape together the £160 we needed. This was a huge amount for three 19-year-olds at the time - I think I was earning about £2.50 an hour or thereabouts. On top of what we'd already lost we were looking at a week's wages each.

The shop staff didn't have any problems accepting our bets and probably had us marked down as mugs - which we were.

I said sweating, it was more like panicking during the race which seemed to be going badly, but somehow the 5/4f got up on the line. After tax we barely scraped a profit, realised we'd had a very lucky escape and vowed never again!

And I never did.

I don't regret that day - it was a valuable lesson learned, and some years later when I heard all about the Martingale I realised many had been down that same road.

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jimibt
Posts: 2591
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:55 am

Bear's The Name wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:51 am
Reading this Martingale thread brings back memories of an early betting folly, many moons ago.

It was the hot summer of 1989 ............

I don't regret that day - it was a valuable lesson learned, and some years later when I heard all about the Martingale I realised many had been down that same road.
lovely little real life summary of the emotion and ultimate despair that can ensue in just getting back to evens... (and you were the LUCKY ones)

nice tale!

spreadbetting
Posts: 2945
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:23 am

grindhog wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:33 pm
I would be prepared to send my sheet to an independent arbitrator "Peter" and let him decide on whether Martingale worked or not. I would have to trust that he not reveal my strategy.
Peter's probably the last person you'd want to send a working martingale system to, he'd milk it to the hilt. Send it to me or simply exploit it at will and gloat from your yacht every so often.

Many of us are winning money from things we're told won't work just get on with it there's little to be gained by proving a point. The market will ultimately tell you if it works.

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Derek27
Posts: 8691
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Wed Jun 24, 2020 3:50 pm

The real irony here is having a "strategy" that's designed for or needs the Martingale to work!

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LeTiss
Posts: 4748
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:04 pm

Anyone interested in Martingale has an aversion to losses

If you have an aversion to losses, you will FAIL at trading

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Derek27
Posts: 8691
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:24 pm

LeTiss wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:04 pm
Anyone interested in Martingale has an aversion to losses

If you have an aversion to losses, you will FAIL at trading
It's not necessarily loss aversion but an inability to find an edge and looking for an easy alternative.

According to psychologists, the reason most people get conned out of their life savings isn't stupidity or gullibility, but greed, which takes over rationality.

Atho55
Posts: 392
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm

Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:31 pm

Make it easier to find...

Martin Gale.jpg
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eightbo
Posts: 1648
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 8:19 pm
Location: Barcelona

Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:39 pm

Imo for long-term success in betting you need 2 things — you need an edge, and you need to stay in the game (so you can continue producing returns from that edge). Any variant of Martingale does not help you with one of those.

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 6188
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Wed Jun 24, 2020 8:21 pm

grindhog wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:33 pm
Hi Shaun,
Im not sure how its come to this but I suppose I have Blind spots.
There is one way to settle and end the anger and resentment about my views on "Martingale" I would be prepared to send my sheet to an independent arbitrator "Peter" and let him decide on whether Martingale worked or not. I would have to trust that he not reveal my strategy.
If i see the thing working on a yearly back-test why should I not be stubborn about it.
If Peter is not interested which I suspect he might not be then thats the end of it and we all agree to disagree and respect each other.

Grindhog
( I sent STUCKINAGALE on holidays to Brazil :D )
I've never said a martingale can' never work. I'm just saying that there will come a day when it doesn't. Maybe that's a 500/1 chance but the thing about 500/1 shots is that they can happen the 1000th time or the first time.

And as I said, it's little more than a parlour trick that takes a pretty big bank to earn harldy any money. I don't trade for fun so I prefer to spend my time working on stuff that actually pays the bills.

If people refuse to believe that a martingale doesn't work long term, then maybe they'll accept the arguement that there's much better ways to make a lot lot more, so why waste time looking at a dodo?

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