>0% and <1%ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:41 pmHow would you define slim? that to me is quite subjective
Botty Challenges
- ShaunWhite
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- ruthlessimon
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& out of interest how are those figures generated?
I literally work on frequency & net ticks won/lost to determine "edge slimness" - hence that subjectivity
- ruthlessimon
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For example today, I've been looking at testing the break of "x" price. Here were the results, ordered via the distance to entry:ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:36 amUsing best price I find it almost impossible to find black numbers
2ticks to "x" = +84
3-10ticks to "x" = +237
10-20ticks to "x" = -4
20-30ticks to "x" = 6
I actually was surprised by those figures. But a move of at least 3 ticks, I'd have thought, guarantees a market order would have filled Moreover, for a manual trader, it's easier to spot vs a 2 tick move to a breakout
To me, a slim edge is the +6 on the 20-30 variation
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I always use simulated trading with greening and commission, I don't count ticks because they're all worth different amounts at different places. Ditto the effect of greening, depending what direction you're going.
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2 ticks is noise not a distance ☺
I do all this analysis and come to a conclusion that just a tick or two per market most of the time and no big losses is all that's needed (iykwim). Then i think wtf am I doing it excel, I can find that looking at the ladder.
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That's fair enough. Perhaps I'm too biased for simplicity on my spreadiesShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:53 pmI always use simulated trading with greening and commission
Actually, that takes me back to when I'd have the full 9 yards: ticks, IP%, & greened p&l
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Yeah trueShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:58 pm2 ticks is noise not a distance ☺
I do all this analysis and come to a conclusion that just a tick or two per market most of the time and no big losses is all that's needed (iykwim). Then i think wtf am I doing it excel, I can find that looking at the ladder.
Again I'd agree with that; but testing how the probability of a successful 2.0 break holding depending on the time it breaks, isn't something I really want to test manually watching the ladders. Unless you're a glutton for a sore wrist
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ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:58 pm
I do all this analysis and come to a conclusion that just a tick or two per market most of the time and no big losses is all that's needed (iykwim).
Last edited by spreadbetting on Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Is the goal to bot these things or to guide your manual trading? If you're not careful you'll end up like these guys who know everything about horses, you'll start to trust your statistics more than what you're seeing in the moment.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon Jun 25, 2018 7:01 pmYeah trueShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:58 pm2 ticks is noise not a distance ☺
I do all this analysis and come to a conclusion that just a tick or two per market most of the time and no big losses is all that's needed (iykwim). Then i think wtf am I doing it excel, I can find that looking at the ladder.
Again I'd agree with that; but testing how the probability of a successful 2.0 break holding depending on the time it breaks, isn't something I really want to test manually watching the ladders. Unless you're a glutton for a sore wrist
The biggest unknown in my calcs is always what effect, either good or bad, that I'll have on the outcomes. That wouldn't be an issue if we weren't talking about such small margins.
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That is exactly right. I don't wanna be a full-on quant. But there are certain aspects to the market which I just cannot get my head around without excel (i.e. how other runners, affect other runners).ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:04 pmIs the goal to bot these things or to guide your manual trading?
Now I will grant that - so long as the trader is happy with their current discretionary profitability. But the best discretionary manual traders I know; have a significant excel backbone.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:04 pmIf you're not careful you'll end up like these guys who know everything about horses, you'll start to trust your statistics more than what you're seeing in the moment.
Mr. Discretionary trader: *2.0 breaks*; "Yup saw this last week, this steam feels strong. Lots of backing, yes, I feel this is steaming more."
Mr. Quant trader: *2.0 breaks*; "Given the fact this has come from 2.5, there's only a 5% chance this hits 1.95, therefore I'm lowering my stakes"
I'm a big fan of this geezer; 13:38 - 14:22 is where I'm coming from litterally (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azDga9p ... e&t=13m38s)
- ruthlessimon
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Personally, I find things like this difficult to spot - even spotting them in excel.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:04 pmyou'll start to trust your statistics more than what you're seeing in the moment.
But should these two breaks of 2.0 (could be a break of any price) (at exactly the same time) be treated the same? Do they have the same probability of holding under 2.0 to post time? Does one have potential to move further? etc etc
As Dante would say "I don't flipping know; go work it out; I wasn't born with this bloody knowledge"
I take my hat off to anyone who could answer those two questions from simply "watching the market", that guy/girl is a gifted trader imo
... you know you've been doing it too long when you're one beer in at 10:00 am
step away from that fridge!!
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