Laying at high odds.

[Bigd85]

Afternoon everyone,

hope your all having a great days trading.

i'm back on the automation and hoping someone can help me out a bit.


Over the past two weeks i have been trying various things with regards to automation with a £50 budget to see how things worked, laying horses over certain odds for a liability percentage of my balance which was working well until i had one race that wiped out £32 even though i had a -£10 greening stop. probably moved so quickly it just couldn't catch it.

I had a days holiday yesterday and managed to turn my £50 into £110 throughout the day, it would have been more but i had a major incident in the last race where my horse steamed it before i had a chance to catch it resulting in a £50 loss.

I want to try and make an automated bot that will lay the first horse that reaches certain odds. Say odds of 100. But i only want to lay the first horse to hit this and i want to lay a liability percentage of my balance.

I know how to lay a field at the same odds but this would lay any horse that reaches those odds and I assume for each lay it would use a liability bet of a percentage of my balance. i.e. if there were 8 horses and all but one hit the odds of 100 and i had a liability of 10% of my balance in play would it use 70% of my balance?

Dan

[Jukebox]

As only one runner can win you can only be liable for the loss on one.

[Bigd85]

I understand that but the more horses that get layed the value of the horse that wins overall would go down. So if I layed one horse to lose at a stake of £1, whichever horse won (as long as it’s not the horse I layed) I’d win £1 less commission.

Let’s say I was laying all horses at odds of 100.

Say it’s a 8 horse race, eventually seven of this horses will hit odds of 100.

If I had £100 balance and I put an automation in place to use a liability of 10% of my balance would that 10% be split between seven lays or would each individual lay be 10%?

Also if one hit odds of 100 and then went on to win is there a way of calculating this as I would then have one loss and seven wins

If each lay was £10, Would i lose £70 for the horse that won and win £10 for all of the 7 horses that lose?

If that’s the case if all bets got laid I’d break even, if one doesn’t I’d win £10 less commission?

Sorry I’m waffling a bit

[Derek27]

I understand that but the more horses that get layed the value of the horse that wins overall would go down. So if I layed one horse to lose at a stake of £1, whichever horse won (as long as it’s not the horse I layed) I’d win £1 less commission.

Let’s say I was laying all horses at odds of 100.

Say it’s a 8 horse race, eventually seven of this horses will hit odds of 100.

If I had £100 balance and I put an automation in place to use a liability of 10% of my balance would that 10% be split between seven lays or would each individual lay be 10%?

Also if one hit odds of 100 and then went on to win is there a way of calculating this as I would then have one loss and seven wins

If each lay was £10, Would i lose £70 for the horse that won and win £10 for all of the 7 horses that lose?

If that’s the case if all bets got laid I’d break even, if one doesn’t I’d win £10 less commission?

Sorry I’m waffling a bit

I think you need to brush up your understanding of trading. If you lay a horse at 100 for 10% of a £100 bank, you would be laying it for £0.10 (rounded off) to lose £9.90 if it wins.

If you laid seven horses at 100 for £10 you would lose £990 on the horse that wins and win £10 on each of the lays that don't!

If by £10 you mean liability then you would lose £9.90 on the lay that wins and win the £0.10 stake on each of the lays that don't.

Whatever the size of your bank you should never risk a massive proportion of it - it usually ends in disaster.

Good luck.

[Bigd85]

I understand that but the more horses that get layed the value of the horse that wins overall would go down. So if I layed one horse to lose at a stake of £1, whichever horse won (as long as it’s not the horse I layed) I’d win £1 less commission.

Let’s say I was laying all horses at odds of 100.

Say it’s a 8 horse race, eventually seven of this horses will hit odds of 100.

If I had £100 balance and I put an automation in place to use a liability of 10% of my balance would that 10% be split between seven lays or would each individual lay be 10%?

Also if one hit odds of 100 and then went on to win is there a way of calculating this as I would then have one loss and seven wins

If each lay was £10, Would i lose £70 for the horse that won and win £10 for all of the 7 horses that lose?

If that’s the case if all bets got laid I’d break even, if one doesn’t I’d win £10 less commission?

Sorry I’m waffling a bit

I think you need to brush up your understanding of trading. If you lay a horse at 100 for 10% of a £50 bank, you would be laying it for £0.05 to lose £4.95 if it wins.

If you laid seven horses at 100 for £10 you would lose £990 on the horse that wins and win £10 on each of the lays that don't!

If by £10 you mean liability then you would lose £10 on the lay that wins and win the £0.10 stake on each of the lays that don't.

Whatever the size of your bank you should never risk a massive proportion of it - it usually ends in disaster.

Good luck.

Thanks Derek

I think my wording was wrong. And so were my sums.

I don’t want to lay all horses. I only want to lay one as soon as it goes over certain odds.

My example was odds of 100. If it can place a lay as soon as one horse goes to 100 or over and (just for this theory) I am using a liability of 10% of my £50 bank. If that horse goes on to lose I will win 5p less commission but if it loses I’d lose £5.

If I changed this to have a liability of 100% of my balance I would make £5 less commission but lose £50 if it won.

I’m theory and through a bit of reviewing (unless I’m mistaken a good percentage of horses that go past odds of 100 come don’t back to win the race so I was looking to use a dedicated bank of say £10, and use this over a days races to see what the final outcome would be. Unless you can set a bank balance in practice mode.

It’s all down to see how things work and outcomes at the moment rather than trying to find a 100% winning formula.

Although I really want to try and find something with little risk that I can have running on a daily basis whilst I’m at work as I cannot really do anything during the day and not a great deal at the weekend either.

Dan

[LinusP]

Three issues:

1- Markets are very efficient (even inplay)
2- You are taking prices
3- There is no underlying reason why this would be profitable

Start by finding a reason (number 3) I have a few strategies that pretty much do the opposite of what you are doing so I should probably not tell you to stop

[Bigd85]

Three issues:

1- Markets are very efficient (even inplay)
2- You are taking prices
3- There is no underlying reason why this would be profitable

Start by finding a reason (number 3) I have a few strategies that pretty much do the opposite of what you are doing so I should probably not tell you to stop

Haha thanks Linus,

I have had a play around trying to find the best that will work for me but need time to play.

I’ve alreay lost a few quid trying to find something that works.

So I really want to try and find something that works well.

How do the opposite strategies work out?

Dan

[Derek27]

The problem of laying a horse when it reaches 100 in-running is, although the horse has little chance of winning, that's reflected in the price. And it may only require one winner in 300 for you to make a loss, because there will be a large number that go out too quickly for you to get a lay in - but you'll certainly lay the one that comes back to win!

I remember seeing a 5-furlong two-year-old race at Chester; the winner broke fast, led to the furlong pole, was oh so briefly headed before regaining the lead and going on to win - traded 330 in-running. You don't want to be laying horses like that just because other people are laying 100.

People who have little understanding of value are often far too hasty to write off a selection's chances, so you'd be better off doing some research into backing IR at big odds - possible big wins for small stakes as opposed to peanuts for huge risks.

I know PeterLe has a botting strategy that takes advantage of giveaways IR, as well LinusP. I'm sure there will be others and it's probably the best way to go.

[Bigd85]

The problem of laying a horse when it reaches 100 in-running is, although the horse has little chance of winning, that's reflected in the price. And it may only require one winner in 300 for you to make a loss, because there will be a large number that go out too quickly for you to get a lay in - but you'll certainly lay the one that comes back to win!

I remember seeing a 5-furlong two-year-old race at Chester; the winner broke fast, led to the furlong pole, was oh so briefly headed before regaining the lead and going on to win - traded 330 in-running. You don't want to be laying horses like that just because other people are laying 100.

People who have little understanding of value are often far too hasty to write off a selection's chances, so you'd be better off doing some research into backing IR at big odds - possible big wins for small stakes as opposed to peanuts for huge risks.

I know PeterLe has a botting strategy that takes advantage of giveaways IR, as well LinusP. I'm sure there will be others and it's probably the best way to go.

Appreciate your input Derek.

I see things happen but not 100% sure to incorporate it into an automation.

I also don’t want to try something have it work for a while on practice mode and then blow it on live.

It’s getting the balance right.

You also see a lot of people who are getting amazing results and always want a piece of it.

Patience is key I suppose but after a few months I just feel like I’m failing. And without the time to do things live I’m reliant on automation.

[jimibt]

The problem of laying a horse when it reaches 100 in-running is, although the horse has little chance of winning, that's reflected in the price. And it may only require one winner in 300 for you to make a loss, because there will be a large number that go out too quickly for you to get a lay in - but you'll certainly lay the one that comes back to win!

I remember seeing a 5-furlong two-year-old race at Chester; the winner broke fast, led to the furlong pole, was oh so briefly headed before regaining the lead and going on to win - traded 330 in-running. You don't want to be laying horses like that just because other people are laying 100.

People who have little understanding of value are often far too hasty to write off a selection's chances, so you'd be better off doing some research into backing IR at big odds - possible big wins for small stakes as opposed to peanuts for huge risks.

I know PeterLe has a botting strategy that takes advantage of giveaways IR, as well LinusP. I'm sure there will be others and it's probably the best way to go.

Appreciate your input Derek.

I see things happen but not 100% sure to incorporate it into an automation.

I also don’t want to try something have it work for a while on practice mode and then blow it on live.

It’s getting the balance right.

You also see a lot of people who are getting amazing results and always want a piece of it.

Patience is key I suppose but after a few months I just feel like I’m failing. And without the time to do things live I’m reliant on automation.

you should probably take the time to video as many races as your hard drive will fit (ok, OTT - as many as you feel you need!). From there, I would walk thro those in slow mo paying particular attention to (as a simple example):

1. Book % on back book
2. Gaps between back and lay odds
3. LTP when the gaps are present
4. VELOCITY of changes that you are observing
5. Race makeup when the above items are at play

I can't say that you'll immediately *get it* but after a time, you'll start to see correlations that only occur when x,y and z are in place.

Keep notes and catalogue those videos to try and cross ref them at a later stage. Sounds geeky but the markets are too fast to absorb at the level of detail required if purely observing. Of course, the same excercise can be followed if you are proficient at programming and have an api account.

[Jukebox]

If I changed this to have a liability of 100% of my balance I would make £5 less commission but lose £50 if it won.

Remember to check your maths too - you'll be disappointed if you find those fivers turn out to be 50pences

[Bigd85]

The problem of laying a horse when it reaches 100 in-running is, although the horse has little chance of winning, that's reflected in the price. And it may only require one winner in 300 for you to make a loss, because there will be a large number that go out too quickly for you to get a lay in - but you'll certainly lay the one that comes back to win!

I remember seeing a 5-furlong two-year-old race at Chester; the winner broke fast, led to the furlong pole, was oh so briefly headed before regaining the lead and going on to win - traded 330 in-running. You don't want to be laying horses like that just because other people are laying 100.

People who have little understanding of value are often far too hasty to write off a selection's chances, so you'd be better off doing some research into backing IR at big odds - possible big wins for small stakes as opposed to peanuts for huge risks.

I know PeterLe has a botting strategy that takes advantage of giveaways IR, as well LinusP. I'm sure there will be others and it's probably the best way to go.

Appreciate your input Derek.

I see things happen but not 100% sure to incorporate it into an automation.

I also don’t want to try something have it work for a while on practice mode and then blow it on live.

It’s getting the balance right.

You also see a lot of people who are getting amazing results and always want a piece of it.

Patience is key I suppose but after a few months I just feel like I’m failing. And without the time to do things live I’m reliant on automation.

you should probably take the time to video as many races as your hard drive will fit (ok, OTT - as many as you feel you need!). From there, I would walk thro those in slow mo paying particular attention to (as a simple example):

1. Book % on back book
2. Gaps between back and lay odds
3. LTP when the gaps are present
4. VELOCITY of changes that you are observing
5. Race makeup when the above items are at play

I can't say that you'll immediately *get it* but after a time, you'll start to see correlations that only occur when x,y and z are in place.

Keep notes and catalogue those videos to try and cross ref them at a later stage. Sounds geeky but the markets are too fast to absorb at the level of detail required if purely observing. Of course, the same excercise can be followed if you are proficient at programming and have an api account.

Thank you. Sounds a good idea to me. Do you mean do a screen record of betangel or the actual races?

Is there any good software to record this?

Thank you for your help guys.

[Derek27]

If I changed this to have a liability of 100% of my balance I would make £5 less commission but lose £50 if it won.

Remember to check your maths too - you'll be disappointed if you find those fivers turn out to be 50pences

I missed that bit.

Any strategy that risks 100% of your balance is doomed to fail when you have a loss and you'd have to refund your bank and start again.

Regarding recording software see the thread below.

viewtopic.php?f=30&t=309

[jimibt]

Thank you. Sounds a good idea to me. Do you mean do a screen record of betangel or the actual races?

Is there any good software to record this?

Thank you for your help guys.

screen record the BA session (record the actual races if you love being bored tho ).

From that you'll be able to step thro the changes and make decent notes. There's a bunch of recording apps out there, the one i've used in the past (and a few on here) is: https://obsproject.com/

[Bigd85]

Thank you. Sounds a good idea to me. Do you mean do a screen record of betangel or the actual races?

Is there any good software to record this?

Thank you for your help guys.

screen record the BA session (record the actual races if you love being bored tho ).

From that you'll be able to step thro the changes and make decent notes. There's a bunch of recording apps out there, the one i've used in the past (and a few on here) is: https://obsproject.com/

Thanks jimibt

I’ll give it a download and have a play tomorrow with it and see if I can understand what is going on.

Appreciate the guidance.

Hopefully I can get my head around things

Cheers