Betfair trading strategies : Newbies Trading in the Dark

Interested in learning to trade on Betfair. Check out this section for advice, knowledge and discussion on trading strategies.
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LinusP
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Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Sat Mar 01, 2014 2:56 pm

scalpy123 wrote: But I still think that the Bet Angel team could be more helpful.We are using their software to get that "edge".
When the odds are moving down on a favourite quickly and if Bet Angel can be automated to place a BACK bet and then the lay bet one tick less (faster than we can do manually)surely it is not too much to ask for an example of this automation.
You have to be here to wind us all up.

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mugsgame
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Sat Mar 01, 2014 2:57 pm

I agree about the BA team being more helpful.
Got a new socket set from Halfords last week. The bastards wouldn't come over and fix my car. Well out of order

Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:05 pm

scalpy123 wrote:I like your post as it does show what you you need to consider when trading.
Hi Max

James's posts are thorough and helpful, and well worth studying.

One of the things I like about James is that he's not afraid to challenge widely held beliefs (such as the view that a tightening over-round is significant, or that WOM has predictive powers). I don't always agree with him, but it's interesting and potentially useful to be given an alternative perspective to the mainstream view.
scalpy123 wrote:I have a good knowledge of horse racing and only select certain "races" to trade.
But I still think that the Bet Angel team could be more helpful.
You have to bear in mind that trading is a zero sum game in which Peter is himself a participant, so he is limited in terms of how much knowledge he can give away without damaging his own edge. Also, he give precise 'when this happens, press this button' type instructions, the edge would disappear in an instant, and he'd be doing nobody any favours...

Jeff

Iron
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Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:07 pm

I'm not sure 'natural instinct' has anything to do with it.

An analogy. Mugs lost six stone over six months. I would guess 90% of people who resolved to lose weight at the New Year have already abandoned their diets (I'm about to restart mine! :lol: ). Similarly, with trading, making good trades is only half the battle.

Avoiding doing stupid stuff, especially when you're feeling sore at the market or at a loose end, is not easy. So basically, I would say that Mugs succeeds at trading for the same reason that he succeeded at dieting - because he is capable of sticking to a regime that involves doing boring stuff consistently well, in spite of inevitable setbacks.

Jeff
Online Trader wrote: I truly believe that there are only a very select few that can trade at the levels that these guys do and that all the coaching/training in the world may never get you to that level unless you have that "natural instinct".

Online Trader
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Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:31 pm

Here what you are saying Jeff, but there has to be some "natural talent" involved and I maintain that only a few will EVER get to the levels of Mugs and Peter, no matter how hard they "stick to a regime that involves doing boring stuff consistently well, in spite of inevitable setbacks"

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Euler
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Sat Mar 01, 2014 5:56 pm

I thought I'd chip in with a couple of thoughts.

When I first tried short term trading on financials I was completely and utterly useless. That's half the reason I ended up as a true investor than trader in financials. But trading short term on Betfair taught me the key elements of general short term trading. So I think it is perfectly possible to undergo a big shift in mindset and application. I used to swear that short term trading was a waste of time and was a zero sum game. But I'd happily apologise for all the rhetoric I chucked at traders who managed something I didn't think was possible.

Once you understand the trading process and mindset I think it's possible to use it as a general framework. But you have to learn it and it goes against a lot of instinct. But if I can do it from a standpoint of utter intransigence then I hold out hope for everybody.

It is possible to give people clear and specific commands to trade a net positive system. But curiously even that isn't good enough for people to execute it. People can see what to do and how to do, but it's the doing it that seems to be the problem. So there is an element of training and skill to execute.

I've got some great audio of me teaching somebody where you hear my criticising them for following my instructions but failing to do anything about it. I'll see if I can upload it at some point.

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mugsgame
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Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

Sat Mar 01, 2014 6:18 pm

Think you're right Jeff. Plus having my mouth stitched up helped a lot!

Seriously though. I keep saying that the difference between success and failure in this game is very small details.
The other thing of course is practice. I got in at the start pretty much, got a bit lucky and developed my skill set. If you spend pretty much every day watching numbers spinning over on ladders and spreadsheets. Plus watching the behaviour the markets and what influences the way they change. How can you fail to understand them?

I would estimate upto now I have watched something like 100,000 horse races and associated markets. If that don't grasp it after that sort of exposure then you in trouble.

Iron
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Sat Mar 01, 2014 8:19 pm

Why must there be?

Is it not simply possible that the 1% who apply themselves best happen to end up in the top 1% when it comes to profits?

Also, there may be an element of self-fulfilling prophesy going on. If you don't think you're capable of being as good as Mugs, chances are that you won't ever be...

Jeff
Online Trader wrote:Here what you are saying Jeff, but there has to be some "natural talent" involved

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Euler
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Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:08 pm

duplicate
Last edited by Euler on Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Euler
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Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:08 pm

Worth bringing this thread into this thread: -

viewtopic.php?f=36&t=4153

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