Trading Politics : US Presidential Election 2016

Punting on politics
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gazuty
Posts: 1125
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am

Fri Oct 09, 2015 9:42 am

Trump is a value lay - IMHO

He chance of being the Republican nominee is about 1% and yet he is priced in at an 11% chance.

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marksmeets302
Posts: 505
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

Fri Oct 09, 2015 6:53 pm

Looking at the spread (8.4 - 10.5) I'd say you just put your money where your mouth is and took at all the backs :lol:

I backed him at 12 a couple of months ago. Didn't expect him to win, but with his charisma I assumed the price would shorten.

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Naffman
Posts: 2615
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:08 pm

Hope he wins.


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marksmeets302
Posts: 505
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

Thu Oct 22, 2015 2:18 pm

Just noticed that Jebb Bush is no longer the favorite as republican nominee; marco rubio is.

And you can still lay Joe Biden (though at odds > 250). He announced he will not run for president.

gazuty
Posts: 1125
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am

Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:30 pm

marksmeets302 wrote:Just noticed that Jebb Bush is no longer the favorite as republican nominee; marco rubio is.

And you can still lay Joe Biden (though at odds > 250). He announced he will not run for president.
Jebb's not raising enough money from the bush donor base at the moment.

Bidens odds factor in something goes wrong with Clinton (illness, death, massive scandal) and he gets drafted by the party back in.

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marksmeets302
Posts: 505
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

Sat Oct 24, 2015 3:19 pm

Bidens odds factor in something goes wrong with Clinton (illness, death, massive scandal) and he gets drafted by the party back in.
Something involving a cigar?

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marksmeets302
Posts: 505
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

Fri Jan 15, 2016 10:19 am

Trump now has the best odds to become the republican nominee. Who would have thought. I definitely traded out too soon.

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Euler
Posts: 16302
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
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Fri Jan 15, 2016 10:36 am

Started at 350, which is quite amazing.

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CLOWNSHOES
Posts: 173
Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2014 8:04 pm

Fri Jan 15, 2016 12:09 pm

Naffman wrote:Hope he wins.
+1

Being Scottish i find it laughable that Nicola Sturgeon stripped him of his business title ... a person who based scotlands independence on Oil selling at $110 per barrel stripping a self made billionaire of his business title just as oil reached around $30 per barrel a mere 16 months down the line. farcical.

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