http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-ra ... 69714/top/
Hurrah, at least. Seems a sensible decision and overdue.
Southwell to host first all weather bumper card
Certainly well supported by Mr Henderson and Mr Geraghty and this is one of the most swing orientated cards I have seen for a while.
Expect some fireworks tomorrow with plenty of big drifters/steamers.
Well done to the BHA (they can get some things right) and well done to the trainers for supporting it.
Bring it on
Expect some fireworks tomorrow with plenty of big drifters/steamers.
Well done to the BHA (they can get some things right) and well done to the trainers for supporting it.
Bring it on
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followthatcamel
- Posts: 73
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 12:54 am
Hi Stewart, very interested in your comments re "one of the most swing orientated cards I have seen for a while".
Would you be able to share your methodology/criteria for assessing such potential?
I for one certainly find it difficult enough to form such opinions on whether there will be swing/scalping market opportunities even once we are closer to the off and the volume/prices/trading ranges start to kick in!!
Regards
Doug
Would you be able to share your methodology/criteria for assessing such potential?
I for one certainly find it difficult enough to form such opinions on whether there will be swing/scalping market opportunities even once we are closer to the off and the volume/prices/trading ranges start to kick in!!
Regards
Doug
Hi Doug
First off Bumpers are for young (4/5 years old)NH horses who have not raced over hurdles or fences and have not raced on the flat.
Generally this means that the ability of the horses are not known and can vary widly in the same race - i.e we could see the next Kauto Star tomorrow and also have the latest addition to the Donkey rides at Blackpool beach competing in the same race.
Also, even though a horse may have masses ability it may not pyhsically be there yet so there will also be horses in the field who will be there just for the experience.
Bumpers usually attract betting interest (i.e gambles)due to the factors above, if a stable thinks they have a good thing who is fit then the market (at some point) will reflect that.
Another point is that N.Henderson is a top NH trainer and his horses at a venue such as Southwell will have a huge bearing on the market. Remember that Southwell is (usually) for low quality horses and the betting market (on course) is not strong - go waving £200 about and the books will be diving for cover. This will be reflected in Betfair.
Finally have a look at the current betfair prices and also the likely tissue prices (Racing Post most accurate) and you will see 4/5 short priced favs.
All in all not a day to be scalping!
First off Bumpers are for young (4/5 years old)NH horses who have not raced over hurdles or fences and have not raced on the flat.
Generally this means that the ability of the horses are not known and can vary widly in the same race - i.e we could see the next Kauto Star tomorrow and also have the latest addition to the Donkey rides at Blackpool beach competing in the same race.
Also, even though a horse may have masses ability it may not pyhsically be there yet so there will also be horses in the field who will be there just for the experience.
Bumpers usually attract betting interest (i.e gambles)due to the factors above, if a stable thinks they have a good thing who is fit then the market (at some point) will reflect that.
Another point is that N.Henderson is a top NH trainer and his horses at a venue such as Southwell will have a huge bearing on the market. Remember that Southwell is (usually) for low quality horses and the betting market (on course) is not strong - go waving £200 about and the books will be diving for cover. This will be reflected in Betfair.
Finally have a look at the current betfair prices and also the likely tissue prices (Racing Post most accurate) and you will see 4/5 short priced favs.
All in all not a day to be scalping!
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
2 points I would disagree with:
Firstly Nicky Henderson being a top NH trainer - I would say Nicky Henderson is a cheat who got off unbelievably lightly, you could almost say suspiciously lightly!
Secondly, that tomorrow is not a day to be scalping. I would say if there are a lot of moves happening it would be a perfect day for scalping, it just depends what approach you take to scalping. If you require the markets to be set solid then no it most likely wont be but if there is a lot of price movement happening there will be heaps of opportunity to scalp a tick or two. I would go as far to say tomorrow is an ideal day to be scalping. However, I would also argue it is a day for both techniques as is everyday, however I would also say it is very difficult to differentiate between the two styles - there is a massive grey area between the two that I would say most trading fits into, well in my case it does anyway, I would say most of the time I neither scalp or swing trade but a combination of the two.
But don't lets reignite the old scalping/swinging argument
Firstly Nicky Henderson being a top NH trainer - I would say Nicky Henderson is a cheat who got off unbelievably lightly, you could almost say suspiciously lightly!
Secondly, that tomorrow is not a day to be scalping. I would say if there are a lot of moves happening it would be a perfect day for scalping, it just depends what approach you take to scalping. If you require the markets to be set solid then no it most likely wont be but if there is a lot of price movement happening there will be heaps of opportunity to scalp a tick or two. I would go as far to say tomorrow is an ideal day to be scalping. However, I would also argue it is a day for both techniques as is everyday, however I would also say it is very difficult to differentiate between the two styles - there is a massive grey area between the two that I would say most trading fits into, well in my case it does anyway, I would say most of the time I neither scalp or swing trade but a combination of the two.
But don't lets reignite the old scalping/swinging argument
Whatever you think about N.Henderson re cheating he is a trainer that has a major bearing on the market make-up. Hence his horses being at Southwell will have a big effect on the market both postitive and negative. Generally, whatever his methods the quality of horses he has at his disposal means that his strike rate is is high (32% this NH season and 45% the last 14 days).
Secondly point about flexibility and using both Swing and Scalp is definatley right but a low quality card on the sand, with low on course volume and with horses with little or no form to go on will mean that gambles and drifts are more likely - hence big swings are more likely.
For sure us experienced traders will use a combo of skills but for those who predominatley scalp then it was a heads up.
the quality of horses he has at his disposal means that his strike rate is is high (32% this NH season and 45% the last 14 days).Secondly point about flexibility and using both Swing and Scalp is definatley right but a low quality card on the sand, with low on course volume and with horses with little or no form to go on will mean that gambles and drifts are more likely - hence big swings are more likely.
For sure us experienced traders will use a combo of skills but for those who predominatley scalp then it was a heads up.
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followthatcamel
- Posts: 73
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 12:54 am
Hi Stewart, thanks for sharing the background on which your assessment has been formed. Very interesting stuff and obviously derived from experience.
Hi Andy, appreciate your input (not sure that Nicky H would agree)!!
Without wishing to get involved in the scalping/swinging market debate, I would say that as I've yet to make the move from being a scalper to a swinger, (can't seem to let any profits run, just look to take the 1 tick all the time),I do find it possible to scalp if the market is either steady or trending (as long as I can get both orders matched on the right side of any movement!!
Markets where relatively "large" amounts can appear and immediately move the price through one side of my order is where I would say that I tend to suffer.
I understand that this is an inherent part of the risk and has to be evaluated ( i.e. will it come back?)and accepted. Hopefully such instances that result in a loss can be offset by the profit from the successful trades.
Regards
Doug
Hi Andy, appreciate your input (not sure that Nicky H would agree)!!
Without wishing to get involved in the scalping/swinging market debate, I would say that as I've yet to make the move from being a scalper to a swinger, (can't seem to let any profits run, just look to take the 1 tick all the time),I do find it possible to scalp if the market is either steady or trending (as long as I can get both orders matched on the right side of any movement!!
Markets where relatively "large" amounts can appear and immediately move the price through one side of my order is where I would say that I tend to suffer.
I understand that this is an inherent part of the risk and has to be evaluated ( i.e. will it come back?)and accepted. Hopefully such instances that result in a loss can be offset by the profit from the successful trades.
Regards
Doug
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Just hope this 2nd fav runs - lovely start to the day with it getting loose 
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Was only 1.19 with the bookies though wasn't it?
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
How did people find this afternoon in the end? Nothing amazing here, bit of a let down tbh. Lingfield being off didn't help one bit.
