Back to Lay Selection Process - Faller?

[iambic_pentameter]

Morning

I would be interested to see what other traders thought processes are regarding how a previous fall may determine whether a horse is traded or not.

I'm profiling the 12.50pm at Catterick today and Roman Numeral is on my short-list - has experience on going and similar going but on the last time out, fell.

Having watched replays of previous runs, seems a competent jumper but my head is telling me to discount it on this occasion as the fall happened in the last race 7 days ago.

Iambic

[nigelk]

Have you considered the distance as well? Todays 2m3f

Racing Post comments: 1m 7.5f "no extra near finish"
1m 7.5f "lost touch after the 10th"
1m 7.5f "one pace on the run in"
2m .5 f "ridden & one pace"

etc. etc

Not saying he won't win, but he seems to struggle to get the distance, and I won't be backing him.
But could be the best of a poor bunch

[iambic_pentameter]

Hi Nigel

Good points on the distance but also traded lower on the runs as well - I'm not looking for a win, just to trade lower in running.

I've decided to err on the side of caution and not get involved with it - the previous fall is an unknown and as a wise trader said to me - always be looking for reasons not to trade.

And for that reason, I'm out

Iambic

[Dublin_Flyer]

Agree with Nigel, but there seems to be stamina problems throughout the field bar the fav who seems to be getting the distance now after the summer break. Stormbay Bomber appear to be a front runner from his pacecard, could be a B2L but I'd be looking to get out way before the finish.

[iambic_pentameter]

Thanks for the reply, DublinFlyer.

Great to get the opinion of more experienced people than myself - 18 months ago, I didn't even know there was a difference between hurdles and chases or, that were different running styles.

Although the horse did trade lower in running and I missed out, pleased that I stuck to the plan.

Iambic