Trading Horse racing : historic race results

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Jonny R
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:47 pm

Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:43 pm

Hi all,
not sure if this is the correct place to post this

i am trying to back test a draw bias strategy but i am struggling to find a good source of data including number of runners, SP etc.

i have spent the last hour and a half trying to find a solid data source but turning up very little.

does anyone know of any data source out there or is it a case of painstakingly copy/pasting all data i can find into excel which will take me hours?

any help / thoughts greatly appreciated


Jonny R
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:47 pm

Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:49 pm

Thanks Dallas ill take a look now

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 2721
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:20 pm

There's a link to the SP data here viewtopic.php?f=54&t=13157 99,000 races and 1,000,000 runnners since 2008)

Or you could use this viewtopic.php?f=54&t=14395 which is an awesome utility.

The SP data hasn't got the number of runners but that's easy to add with excel.

New runner num col: Increment the runner number if the market <> the previous one. Lines go 12312345 etc
Copy/paste the formula cells as value
Sort the file to invert it (runner nums now read 54321321)
Create a new runners col the uses the figure above if the figure below is smaller (runners now read 55555333)
Bob's yer uncle

...something like that anyway....Actually I've just seen you need the draw# too. That's not in the files above.

Jonny R
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:47 pm

Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:53 pm

Thanks Shaun ill take a look im sure ill find something useful from it

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Euler
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Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:12 pm

Quite a lot of work has been done on draw bias already: -

http://www.drawbias.com/

Jonny R
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:47 pm

Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:27 pm

Thanks for the reply Peter.

In your opinion is it worth pursuing?
Seems like there might not be much of an edge in it on the surface

bobs71
Posts: 50
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:22 pm

The drawbias.com site suggested by Euler has not been updated for a couple of years according to my figures.

Horseracebase.com is excellent and usually you can sign up for a 3 day free trial.
Chris , the owner has big plans in the pipeline this year for the site and membership is reasonable.
He is also very open to improvements/suggestions.
You can interrogate the database from all aspects of the draw including , stall alignment, number groupings etc.

In my opinion most known track bias is already factored into exchange and bookmakers markets.
With more educated work done in the realms of drainage and course landscaping , there is more of a level playing field and a few of the more notorious ones like Beverley & Sandown at Sprint Distances have been negated.

However there is an edge in "on the day" bias at certain tracks - Newmarket especially the Rowley course and Ascot have certain "tendancies" which if noticed quickly especially at 2 or 3 day type meetings can reward. Redcar also has a quirk which if you do your homework can be looked out for. York as well , and generally these type of things goes against public opinion.

There is also value in generally opposing the public / pundit view of the draw but you need "accurate enough" estimations of the market to compare. If its plastered in the Racing Post and the guys on ATR are saying Bias - low - then usually you want to be looking at the extreme opposite of that and oddslines etc should guide you here.

There is also another side of bias in the historical sense and that is once the races have been run , and the data is settled you can upgrade certain runners / performances that have ran "against" the bias and that does not always mean they have to have run well. You can certainly give another chance or excuse a promising or improving young horse a poor/mediocre run against a comfirmed bias.

One last thing - pundits sometimes go overboard and start talking bias when they should know better.
When reviewing results , there is no better tool than the actual odds of a horse to confirm a bias. Most professionals use this as a decider. If 4 even money favs win the first four races on the card each from stall 1 - that does not immediately mean there is an inside bias - BUT - make that 4 horses outwith the first 3 in the market in each race and usually something is happening with the course.

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