Trading Horse racing : Dutching

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ANGELS15
Posts: 459
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:54 am

Anbell wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:19 am
ANGELS15 wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:13 pm
Hi Community. On the subject of dutching, I've got a couple of automation files that dutch 4 selections in a race. Currently I have it set up to dutch by book %. In practice what this means for me is if I use say a book % of £16 by the time the bets are placed The total liability is usually around £9 with the potential profit £7 if any of the selections won. This seems to turn the whole bet into a '5/6' or 4/5 chance which means I'll only break even if the bot was successful 60% of the time. Is there a way to set it up so that the potential profit is equal to the total liability so in other words making it more like an even money chance?

I've had fair success with the bot and believe it could be successful more than 50% of the time.
You'd need the sum the percentage chances of winning of all four to = 50%
Thanks for getting back to me Anbell but which of the stake options do I select in guardian? There doesn't appear to be a sum percentage option?

Anbell
Posts: 728
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:57 am

ANGELS15 wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:54 am
Anbell wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:19 am
ANGELS15 wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:13 pm
Hi Community. On the subject of dutching, I've got a couple of automation files that dutch 4 selections in a race. Currently I have it set up to dutch by book %. In practice what this means for me is if I use say a book % of £16 by the time the bets are placed The total liability is usually around £9 with the potential profit £7 if any of the selections won. This seems to turn the whole bet into a '5/6' or 4/5 chance which means I'll only break even if the bot was successful 60% of the time. Is there a way to set it up so that the potential profit is equal to the total liability so in other words making it more like an even money chance?

I've had fair success with the bot and believe it could be successful more than 50% of the time.
You'd need the sum the percentage chances of winning of all four to = 50%
Thanks for getting back to me Anbell but which of the stake options do I select in guardian? There doesn't appear to be a sum percentage option?
It's not a staking option.

When dutching, your profits depend on the sum of the %s of the 4 horses you're laying, plus or minus your edge, plus or minus the execution, plus or minus the spread, minus commission. If your four horses are 8.0 chances (12.5% chance each) then you'll be at 50% strike rate, plus/minus.

You can increase your 'strike rate' which will decrease your return, or vice versa.

Youve been around a while, so I'm probably misunderstanding your question.

Jukebox
Posts: 1286
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:47 am

ANGELS15 wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:54 am
There doesn't appear to be a sum percentage option?
There is an indicator:
As you tick your selections on the Dutching screen the running total Book% of the selection(s) ticked that you've taken is shown just below and slightly to the left of the Place Bets button. If you wanted you can tick or untick selections until you have taken the %age of book you want to be exposed to and aim for 50% - by maybe swapping out a 4th fav for a 5th fav etc. Alternatively if you use the Back for a target profit option you can use the overide the target profit of some selections to get your stake on some and profit on others the same with a break even on yet others. As Anbell has said though - it might be fun for a while but without any method to your selections your longterm risk/reward will only breakeven minus the spreads and commissions.

Anbell
Posts: 728
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:02 am

Jukebox wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:47 am
ANGELS15 wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:54 am
There doesn't appear to be a sum percentage option?
There is an indicator:
As you tick your selections on the Dutching screen the running total Book% of the selection(s) ticked that you've taken is shown just below and slightly to the left of the Place Bets button. If you wanted you can tick or untick selections until you have taken the %age of book you want to be exposed to and aim for 50% - by maybe swapping out a 4th fav for a 5th fav etc. Alternatively if you use the Back for a target profit option you can use the overide the target profit of some selections to get your stake on some and profit on others the same with a break even on yet others. As Anbell has said though - it might be fun for a while but without any method to your selections your longterm risk/reward will only breakeven minus the spreads and commissions.
Thanks for that!

I've not used the actual dutching facility and was just referring to dutching in theory.

I figured I must have misunderstood the question.

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ANGELS15
Posts: 459
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:45 am

Hi Anbell, Jukebox thanks for your input.

I gather that it's fairly straightforward to get a 100% return on your total staked if you're using the Bet Angel Dutching tool. So if I chose 4 selections for a total stake of £50 across all 4, I could manipulate it so that I win £50 should any of the 4 win. The criteria is that the selection would need to be bigger than odds of 4.0

A few years ago I wished to create an automation that would back 4 selections in a race. I asked the forum and Dallas explained how to create it using staking by book %.

I created the automation file and it does work. The only issue is that because it stakes by book %, lets use an example of £16 which I'm currently using: You tend to get around £9 staked across the 4 with a potential £7 profit should any of them win. This turns the whole bet into a 4/5 chance which means you need a higher than 60% strike rate to be profitable.

I shelved the automation but dug it out recently. I tested it over the last 5 days. It managed to trigger 19 times with 15 successes. I only expect it to trigger 4/5 times a day at best.

The problem I have is that I need the automation to stake so that I get a 100% return on my Durtched stakes.

So my question is there anything in the automation staking that will do this aside from staking by book %
I hope this explains it better?

Anbell
Posts: 728
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:54 am

ANGELS15 wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:45 am
The problem I have is that I need the automation to stake so that I get a 100% return on my Durtched stakes.

So my question is there anything in the automation staking that will do this aside from staking by book %
I hope this explains it better?
No, it's not magic!

You don't have a staking problem. If you have a 50% strike rate then the sum of the % of your 4 picks should be less than 50%

User avatar
ANGELS15
Posts: 459
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:36 pm

Anbell wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:54 am
ANGELS15 wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:45 am
The problem I have is that I need the automation to stake so that I get a 100% return on my Durtched stakes.

So my question is there anything in the automation staking that will do this aside from staking by book %
I hope this explains it better?
No, it's not magic!

You don't have a staking problem. If you have a 50% strike rate then the sum of the % of your 4 picks should be less than 50%
Thanks again for your input.

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