Reading which odds will move?

[CallumPerry]

One thing I have struggled with when reading the markets (and am only just starting to recognise more now) is when a runner drifts/comes in, how does that affect the other horses?

Say we have a fake 4 horse race with odds of:
2 (50%)
6.3 (15.87%)
4 (25%)
10 (10%)

So the book is at 100.87%. Now if horse 2 came in by 4 ticks suddenly and nothing else were to move I'd expect a bounce back but sometimes horse 1 or horse 3 would adjust?? So basically my question is how do you notice which horse is likely to move based on the movements of the horses with nearby odds? Should I be considering a weak drift of horse 1 to have as much 'down' pressure on horse 2 as horse 2's own WOM. Is it roughly a 50% as strong pressure? 30%? You know what I mean?

I'm aware this gets a little more complex with cross-matching but Peter still talks about this in his videos, like he will say "I have noticed a drift on this [different] horse so my position [traded horse] is looking strong". If there is any Maths involved or general patterns you see, please enlighten me! And if anybody has any useful reading for the market's mechanics to help me find my own edge, also much appreciated!

Cheers,
Callum

[ShaunWhite]

Now if horse 2 came in by 4 ticks suddenly and nothing else were to move I'd expect a bounce back but sometimes horse 1 or horse 3 would adjust??

If one price moves it's highly unlikely that nothing else will move. The overround will have changed and the back/lay the field bots will take the overround back to 100. It's a closed system, jimi pictures it as pistons on a crankshaft and I see it as like squeezing a balloon.

As to which will move to compensate, I'm not sure it's possible to tell but a selection with very little money on the side it 'should' move to will be more susceptible to being one of those that takes up the slack. But if it moves too far then of course the value seekers step in and the whole cycle starts again.

I think Peter's comments actually mean that he's happy to see any pressure elsewhere in the opposite direction. If this happens on a prominent horse then it's more likely to be sustained rather than just being a handful of people looking at an outsider.

[napshnap]

It's a pain in the ass to describe the whole process. My advice will be: forget about the odds for a while and concentrate on their shares, and think about shares in a quantitative manner (in your example 2nd horse have 15.87% share, remove % in your mind and think like it's 15.87 apples or something). Then do all other calculation, like how much share of "apples" horse got/lost, and how much of it others runners received/gave away.
Also, I highly recommend to use Excel for such calculations, it's very user friendly and intuitive for such modeling.

[jimibt]

It's a pain in the ass to describe the whole process. My advice will be: forget about the odds for a while and concentrate on their shares, and think about shares in a quantitative manner (in your example 2nd horse have 15.87% share, remove % in your mind and think like it's 15.87 apples or something). Then do all other calculation, like how much share of "apples" horse got/lost, and how much of them others runners received/gave away.
Also, I highly recommend to use Excel for such calculations, it's very user friendly and intuitive for such modeling.

i agree 100% - it's a closed system and the share is always redistributed. using excel or other programming tools can help to visualise this and may even, with careful coding, allow you to identify the displacement and replacement (share) runners...

[napshnap]

It's a pain in the ass to describe the whole process. My advice will be: forget about the odds for a while and concentrate on their shares, and think about shares in a quantitative manner (in your example 2nd horse have 15.87% share, remove % in your mind and think like it's 15.87 apples or something). Then do all other calculation, like how much share of "apples" horse got/lost, and how much of them others runners received/gave away.
Also, I highly recommend to use Excel for such calculations, it's very user friendly and intuitive for such modeling.

i agree 100% - it's a closed system and the share is always redistributed. using excel or other programming tools can help to visualise this and may even, with careful coding, allow you to identify the displacement and replacement (share) runners...

You wrote about it earlier, jimibt. But is this situation even worth a look? I mean, there are so many scavengers-bots who instantly terminate any possibility to earn from such situations.

[jimibt]

It's a pain in the ass to describe the whole process. My advice will be: forget about the odds for a while and concentrate on their shares, and think about shares in a quantitative manner (in your example 2nd horse have 15.87% share, remove % in your mind and think like it's 15.87 apples or something). Then do all other calculation, like how much share of "apples" horse got/lost, and how much of them others runners received/gave away.
Also, I highly recommend to use Excel for such calculations, it's very user friendly and intuitive for such modeling.

i agree 100% - it's a closed system and the share is always redistributed. using excel or other programming tools can help to visualise this and may even, with careful coding, allow you to identify the displacement and replacement (share) runners...

You wrote about it earlier, jimibt. But is this situation even worth a look? I mean, there are so many scavengers-bots who instantly terminate any possibility to earn from such situations.

as i said, with careful coding. you definitely can't be pedestrian with this stuff for the reasons you've stated..

[ShaunWhite]

You wrote about it earlier, jimibt. But is this situation even worth a look? I mean, there are so many scavengers-bots who instantly terminate any possibility to earn from such situations.

Personally I'd use that info to look for an indication of the likelihood of more sustained see-sawing, rather than expecting to predict in a millisecond what will move when X moves. It's not just bots, it's xm too that spoils the party.

It's also a world of reality and not just numbers, the comparative appearance of horses near the start plays a bigger roll than a rule or formula that pushes prices up & down according to percentages.

[Atho55]

I personally find it easier to look at the odds moving from a telescope rather than a microscope. Within the forum there is an Excel file called something like Bet Angel Charting.xls that can be modified to display the fields you are interested in.

Using the Back odds you can get a visualisation of how the markets react

Screenshot_1.png

Look at the moves as they happen

Screenshot_4.png

And by adding the field Green from the Bet Angel sheet, place you bets in Guardian or by other means then watch how it does. Very handy if you are looking for a time to enter the market or decide to let your trade run longer

Screenshot_2.png