Trading Horse racing : Dobbing - Today's DOB's

The sport of kings.
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Eyesnack
Posts: 29
Joined: Fri May 29, 2009 1:26 pm

Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:32 am

Wednesdays Dobbers & Cards can be downloaded from here https://www.dropbox.com/sh/37v9rqn89w3w ... RfUoa?dl=0
Have tightened up the dobbing criteria as your previous post:-

Min 10 Runs
Won at least 1
Dob % >=75%
Pace >=6
you will still need to check BSP to see if it meets your criteria

Trebleit
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2016 9:27 pm

Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:46 am

Thanks again for sharing. Quick question what kind of strike rate do you have at 50% & 75% dobs?

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BetScalper
Posts: 810
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:10 am

Eyesnack wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:32 am
Wednesdays Dobbers & Cards can be downloaded from here https://www.dropbox.com/sh/37v9rqn89w3w ... RfUoa?dl=0
Have tightened up the dobbing criteria as your previous post:-

Min 10 Runs
Won at least 1
Dob % >=75%
Pace >=6
you will still need to check BSP to see if it meets your criteria
Nice one. Much appreciated. :)

Just thinking out loud but I wonder what these dobs would be like to trade pre-off. Might have a tinker with that while I wait for them to go off. Worst case would be making small losses and then hopefully making it back if they dob in-running. Unless of course they run backwards. :lol:

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BetScalper
Posts: 810
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:31 pm

Nightmare. :o :o :o :o :o :o :o

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northbound
Posts: 511
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:41 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:31 pm
Nightmare. :o :o :o :o :o :o :o
It’s called mean reversion. A few coin flips went your way, now they all go against you.

I know the feeling, a couple of my non-DOB strategies which looked very promising in the past few weeks, now are not working as well anymore.

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ANGELS15
Posts: 106
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:23 pm

Just had a frightening near miss. I selected a horse to DOB in the 5.45 Hamilton (Xpo Universel). I was expecting it to be a big price and my DOB bet of £12 was matched at £50. Just as they were loading the last runner one of the 2nd favourites burst through the stalls but was very quickly caught and withdrawn. not sure what it's price was but last show on betfair was 5.0. As the horses jumped my DOB bet was matched almost immediately which was unusual for a longer distance race (1m 4f) I woudn't normally do a DOB bet over long distances however the selection had certain things going for it and it actually ran well justifying the choice.

Just prior to the race my balance was £157. I looked at my matched bets and noticed my £12 back bet had been rematched at 38.41, I assumed my lay bet would have been reset at 19 but it wasn't, it was still matched at 25.0! Suddenly my balance was £91! it looked as if the £24 lay bet had a liability of £576! far more than what I would have won.

Suddenly the balance readjusted to £166 as the horse had lost but I woud have been in deep **** had it of won.

I've seen this happen before, I assumed betfair don't adjust the lay bet as the in-running market is not privy to the 'rule 4'. However I could have sworn I've seen it where they have adjusted the lay bet.

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ANGELS15
Posts: 106
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:25 pm

Correction to above post my initial £12 back bet was matched at 50.0

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Dallas
Posts: 8725
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:30 pm

It doesn't matter when a bet was 'placed', it's when it was 'matched' that affects whether the stake is adjusted by the rule 4 or not.
e.g. A lay bet placed before the start and kept, but only matched after the race starts, is the same as just placing it after the race has started - neither bet will be adjusted when the rule 4 is processed. The same rules apply to a back bet.... it's all about when it gets matched in the market.

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ANGELS15
Posts: 106
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:45 pm

Thanks Dallas. Maybe a good practice would be to quickly cancel any unmatched offset lay bets if there's time once you become aware that a hefty rule 4 may be applied. Then to resubmit them manually if there's time. Also I think I've mentioned this before elsewhere but Betfair's 'rule 4' is a little harsher than conventional bookies as they base their deduction on the whole return including your stake!

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ANGELS15
Posts: 106
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:22 pm

Following on from the point Dallas made I just remembered something else interesting from today's incident. When I logged in to see the race in addition to the DOB placed by the software I also placed a £2 win bet on Xpo Universal and then placed a lay bet to go in running as a keep bet £30 @ 1.33 in case the horse ran really well and either won or nearly won. When I checked my matched bets as I stated earlier, my offset bet was unaffected by the rule 4, however my lay bet placed manually before the off as a keep bet had been reset as £30 @ 1.02?

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