Trading Horse racing : help with greening

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formratings
Posts: 34
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2018 4:31 pm

Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:43 am

Sorry if this has been asked before.
if I dutch 3/4 horses, I want to green up in running, usually one trade won't green so I would like help please to green up if 2 out of 3 on the trades are green or 3 out of 4, to win a percent of stake, say 2%
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Jukebox
Posts: 494
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:22 am

When you dutch several runners you already go into it knowing that at best all but one of them will lose and have calculated that the full win on any one of them will be greater than the complete loss on all the others. If you take a dutch bet inplay and start to see a green it is usually because one or some of you selections are doing well - but this means that others are looking hopeless. When you try to green up in-play this necessarily means that lay bets have to go into the very fast moving in-play market - the market will happily swallow your lay bets on runners that are doing even better at the time your bets get into the market but will naturally will not be interested in your lay bets on those that are doing even worse - with the several second delay imposed on the inplay market things are likely to have changed considerably. When you go for a greenup in this situation you are usually ensuring that you are cutting short your potential gain and allowing your losses to run to the maximum - not a very healthy approach. Bet Angel even has a default protection in that they disable the green up button and give you a warning on the dutching screen for this very reason.

007campbell
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2010 1:17 am

Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:01 am

What an outstanding response Jukebox- a real light bulb moment for me and underscores why it is a really bad idea to use the stop loss in play! I think dutching is otherwise a excellent strategy particularly focusing on the key chances in particular types of race (eg favourites in maidens and novice hurdles) and the statistics applicable to types of races generally.

Jukebox
Posts: 494
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:22 am

Somewhere in the past Peter showed a graph of a long and steady stream of gains made using dutching, he was also careful to point out that it was based on a selective approach (the right type of race and selection of odds etc) - he certainly wasn't greening up in play.

mickypaul72
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue May 15, 2018 1:52 pm

Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:44 am

You could think about changing your strategy to only include races above 1m 1f (there are 19 on todays race card UK & Ireland) in these races there are less fireworks so you should have a greater chance of greening up.

formratings
Posts: 34
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2018 4:31 pm

Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:05 am

using small stakes, trying greening and off set at certain ticks with dutching, depending on number of runners betting pre off and going in running to green or off set, won between 20p and 45p on every race on Tuesday except 3 which lost me aprox £10,£4 and £2 so wiped out all my profit .....lol, the same scenario happening too often, so got a setting to mess about with still to sort that, basically looking at figures they were short priced runners that never looked to have a chance of winning so maybe to omit those shorties will help, still thinking .... :? :?

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