Trading What I see !?

[Atho55]

Not sure if this will help you or not but you can watch as many times as you like, pause it, step through 1 frame at a time etc.

It`s today. Sum5B is the Back money total, Sum5L is the Lay money, B% is the Back % of the Sum5`s, L% is the Lay % of the Sum5`s, SelVolDiff is the £ matched/sec on that runner. The other columns represent the £ at the odds.


https://youtu.be/oGCca44qIiM

[alexmr2]

Not sure if this will help you or not but you can watch as many times as you like, pause it, step through 1 frame at a time etc.

It`s today. Sum5B is the Back money total, Sum5L is the Lay money, B% is the Back % of the Sum5`s, L% is the Lay % of the Sum5`s, SelVolDiff is the £ matched/sec on that runner. The other columns represent the £ at the odds.


https://youtu.be/oGCca44qIiM

Thanks for sharing this, it's interesting you mention these things to look at because I've never spotted any sort of indicator looking at the back vs lay money or the %s. In the video I do see a pattern which took me almost 2 years to spot which is the prices the ranges like to form between

[smallplayer]

Not sure if this will help you or not but you can watch as many times as you like, pause it, step through 1 frame at a time etc.

It`s today. Sum5B is the Back money total, Sum5L is the Lay money, B% is the Back % of the Sum5`s, L% is the Lay % of the Sum5`s, SelVolDiff is the £ matched/sec on that runner. The other columns represent the £ at the odds.


https://youtu.be/oGCca44qIiM

Is this automation you use Atho? Please tell me I don't have to learn all this stuff in order to manually trade successfully

[Atho55]

Yes it`s automation placing the bet but that`s the 1 click screen you are looking at. But the idea is that you can keep viewing the same market over and over again till a pattern of sorts registers.

[goat68]

Ok this is where I get unstuck with the secret psychology game, so trying to think what your opponent traders are doing, and doing the opposite. So take the situation of a steamer, I know all the other traders are backing it, so I lay it!! Big loss! So what am I missing in this psychology equation.

Also, what if I think too cleverly, so for example I played scissors, he plays rock. So I think, well I know he is thinking that I will change to paper, but I know that he is thinking that, so I change to rock instead.

[wearthefoxhat]

Ok this is where I get unstuck with the secret psychology game, so trying to think what your opponent traders are doing, and doing the opposite. So take the situation of a steamer, I know all the other traders are backing it, so I lay it!! Big loss! So what am I missing in this psychology equation.

Also, what if I think too cleverly, so for example I played scissors, he plays rock. So I think, well I know he is thinking that I will change to paper, but I know that he is thinking that, so I change to rock instead.

Peter has said a few times, "For every market there's a trade, for every trade there's a market." (or something on those lines )
Our role is to find which one fits best.

One example;
The odds move in a race where there's a short price favourite with a long price second favourite, are likely to behave differently than if the market leaders were closer together. Maybe, whack in some peg-trades to test the direction either side, when confirmed, check the other runners price movement(s). You might see a pattern, see if the same happens with a similar set-up in other races.

[alexmr2]

Ok this is where I get unstuck with the secret psychology game, so trying to think what your opponent traders are doing, and doing the opposite. So take the situation of a steamer, I know all the other traders are backing it, so I lay it!! Big loss! So what am I missing in this psychology equation.

Also, what if I think too cleverly, so for example I played scissors, he plays rock. So I think, well I know he is thinking that I will change to paper, but I know that he is thinking that, so I change to rock instead.

I think the main point to take from that video is avoid the traps like jumping on something before it snaps back or being greedy adding to it etc. They say the profit is made from the buying price so get a good entry position and then play the probabilities game of taking smaller losses and bigger wins. Accept that you can't always be right instead of overthinking it and always trying to get it right or make every trade work. It's not unusual to have 3 or more losing or winning trades in a row which can easily break your psychology and trading

[goat68]

Ok this is where I get unstuck with the secret psychology game, so trying to think what your opponent traders are doing, and doing the opposite. So take the situation of a steamer, I know all the other traders are backing it, so I lay it!! Big loss! So what am I missing in this psychology equation.

Also, what if I think too cleverly, so for example I played scissors, he plays rock. So I think, well I know he is thinking that I will change to paper, but I know that he is thinking that, so I change to rock instead.

I think the main point to take from that video is avoid the traps like jumping on something before it snaps back or being greedy adding to it etc. They say the profit is made from the buying price so get a good entry position and then play the probabilities game of taking smaller losses and bigger wins. Accept that you can't always be right instead of overthinking it and always trying to get it right or make every trade work. It's not unusual to have 3 or more losing or winning trades in a row which can easily break your psychology and trading

I see it slightly differently, I look at a market and make judgement on whether a given selection is trading in a manner where doing the opposite of the crowd is right. For example an obvious steamer is not one, where as others are.. I'm still learning to judge which they are...!

[speedyhamster]

Ok this is where I get unstuck with the secret psychology game, so trying to think what your opponent traders are doing, and doing the opposite. So take the situation of a steamer, I know all the other traders are backing it, so I lay it!! Big loss! So what am I missing in this psychology equation.

Also, what if I think too cleverly, so for example I played scissors, he plays rock. So I think, well I know he is thinking that I will change to paper, but I know that he is thinking that, so I change to rock instead.

Could it be that when the traders open a Back position, then however far down the market steams and the traders close there position with
a Lay, you open a position with a Lay (at the time the traders are closing) then close a few ticks higher with a Back?

Or while traders are Backing the steamer on the Favourite, lay the second fav Drifting? (or which ever Horse is drifting in tandem with the Fav)

Not following the crowd can mean trading a different Horse.

[goat68]

Was doing really well all week, was in good profit, then have an awful Saturday lost all the profit for the week and more...
I got loads wrong today, and some that lurched from 1 tick profit to 15 tick loss...these seem inevitable losses
Really making me think whether I can be bothered...!

[alexmr2]

Was doing really well all week, was in good profit, then have an awful Saturday lost all the profit for the week and more...
I got loads wrong today, and some that lurched from 1 tick profit to 15 tick loss...these seem inevitable losses
Really making me think whether I can be bothered...!

I've been through this cycle many times too and unfortunately it can repeat for a long time. I'm sure everyone on here has experieced the every trade goes against you days

If you step back and take a look at this from a logical perspective it does make sense that after some progress we get overconfident and forget that we are still up against people that have been doing this for years longer than us. Logically there is no reason it should be harder to get further into the green than into the red, and the reason that we have those big drawdown days is purely psychological i.e.

First couple of trades are small wins confidence increases and next trade is a big loss because you hold on because of ego, then you feel like you need to make it back so what do we do? Instantly jump back into any old position sometimes with 2 or 3 stakes instead of 1 and then get thrown out again. The frustration of all this then throws logic out of the window and only digs us into a deeper hole. Profitable trading should not be like this but we have such a desire to always be right

[jamesg46]

Was doing really well all week, was in good profit, then have an awful Saturday lost all the profit for the week and more...
I got loads wrong today, and some that lurched from 1 tick profit to 15 tick loss...these seem inevitable losses
Really making me think whether I can be bothered...!

Thought you were spending some time to sit back and observe for a few weeks?

[alexmr2]

these seem inevitable losses
Really making me think whether I can be bothered...!

Losses are inevitable in trading and there are many good traders who lose half of their trades but win much more when they are right

Also there are some great psychology posts on this forum by JollyGreen and one of them is are you a victor or a victim? Do you blame the market or your trading teacher or look for something else to blame when one of your trades goes the wrong way? Do you think that profitable traders do this? What makes you think that you can be right most of the time after 6 months when even those that have bee doing this for 5-20 years can still be wrong up to half of the time?

I know that I have and probably thousands of others, the important thing is to recognise the issue and work on it. How many times have I held onto a full blown reversal to prove a point and say to my teacher "I done what you told me to do and look what happened, 50 tick loss". A profitable trader would not have done that they would either have accepted the loss when it was small or have been on the other side of those 50 ticks

[goat68]

these seem inevitable losses
Really making me think whether I can be bothered...!

Losses are inevitable in trading and there are many good traders who lose half of their trades but win much more when they are right

Also there are some great psychology posts on this forum by JollyGreen and one of them is are you a victor or a victim? Do you blame the market or your trading teacher or look for something else to blame when one of your trades goes the wrong way? Do you think that profitable traders do this? What makes you think that you can be right most of the time after 6 months when even those that have bee doing this for 5-20 years can still be wrong up to half of the time?

I know that I have and probably thousands of others, the important thing is to recognise the issue and work on it. How many times have I held onto a full blown reversal to prove a point and say to my teacher "I done what you told me to do and look what happened, 50 tick loss". A profitable trader would not have done that they would either have accepted the loss when it was small or have been on the other side of those 50 ticks

Thanks, I know what you're saying, I just don't think I want this enough. I also don't have enough time what with a real job and other things, to actually do what's needed....

[goat68]

Automation could be the way, but I'm not convinced I can be profitable at that, especially from reading some of the woes on the Automation threads that I have read....