It's not affecting me mentally, or holding me back in any way, it's just neutral, but, nevertheless, I can't seem to nip this pesky habit in the bud...
I'll see how it plays out, but I think I might have to drop stakes for the first few races of the day, which doesn't sit well. Maybe it should sit well. I don't know...
Why do I keep losing on the first two or three races of the day (pre-race)?
I always drop stakes on the first race of any meeting to see if it's trading any differently than normal. Markets vary from day to day, meeting to meeting and yes, I've been caught out a few times on the first races.Osstrader wrote: ↑Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:33 amIt's not affecting me mentally, or holding me back in any way, it's just neutral, but, nevertheless, I can't seem to nip this pesky habit in the bud...
I'll see how it plays out, but I think I might have to drop stakes for the first few races of the day, which doesn't sit well. Maybe it should sit well. I don't know...
If you ran a racecourse and had to plan the schedule for your 8 or so races for the day you'd naturally plan to have your better quality races somewhere around the middle of your day with some lesser quality races interspersed between them - your first race might well be the lowest quality race you have to offer for the day.
If there are two or three meetings starting this afternoon the first two or three races you are attempting to trade are usually among the very lowest quality races of the day.
Generally it pays to pay attention to the quality of the race you are trading. Group 1 races don't trade in the same way as Novice and Apprentice races.
If there are two or three meetings starting this afternoon the first two or three races you are attempting to trade are usually among the very lowest quality races of the day.
Generally it pays to pay attention to the quality of the race you are trading. Group 1 races don't trade in the same way as Novice and Apprentice races.
- jamesedwards
- Posts: 2324
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
This. The first few markets act very differently to most as the money is down so much earlier. The first race tomorrow (13:30 at Beverly) already has 4x the matched volume of all the other races.
That's so obvious, I'd like to delete the whole thread out of sheer embarrassment
Many thanks, sir (and everyone else who posted)!
- wearthefoxhat
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- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
I thought is was a good observation as it's something easy to forget. It could also be the basis of a strategy just focussing on 1 race a day.
The 2nd/3rd races maybe impacted by those chasing their losses, so the market doesn't behave the way it's expected to.
- wearthefoxhat
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Also, a couple of golden nuggets in this video (posted 3 years ago!)
Peter Webb - Bet Angel live stream - Talking trading strategy, software, Betfair and everything!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C48bYcYxzAQ&t=2442s
Peter Webb - Bet Angel live stream - Talking trading strategy, software, Betfair and everything!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C48bYcYxzAQ&t=2442s
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Just ordered "The Idiots Brain" by Dean Burnett.... £3 off Ebay...wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:36 amAlso, a couple of golden nuggets in this video (posted 3 years ago!)
Peter Webb - Bet Angel live stream - Talking trading strategy, software, Betfair and everything!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C48bYcYxzAQ&t=2442s
I'd wager that, on average, Dean Burnett makes 3 quid every time the 'idiot' buys his book, and, the recipient of his 'esoteric' knowledge loses an order of magnitude more than they paid for the book.wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:13 amJust ordered "The Idiots Brain" by Dean Burnett.... £3 off Ebay...wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:36 amAlso, a couple of golden nuggets in this video (posted 3 years ago!)
Peter Webb - Bet Angel live stream - Talking trading strategy, software, Betfair and everything!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C48bYcYxzAQ&t=2442s
I haven't read it, though, so what do I know?
However.. the wager stands...
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Maybe that's how the idiot brain works...I'll let you know when I've read it.Osstrader wrote: ↑Thu Aug 06, 2020 3:19 amI'd wager that, on average, Dean Burnett makes 3 quid every time the 'idiot' buys his book, and, the recipient of his 'esoteric' knowledge loses an order of magnitude more than they paid for the book.wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:13 amJust ordered "The Idiots Brain" by Dean Burnett.... £3 off Ebay...wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:36 amAlso, a couple of golden nuggets in this video (posted 3 years ago!)
Peter Webb - Bet Angel live stream - Talking trading strategy, software, Betfair and everything!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C48bYcYxzAQ&t=2442s
I haven't read it, though, so what do I know?
However.. the wager stands...
- firlandsfarm
- Posts: 2720
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
Is there a possibility you start out too positive maybe having cleared a profit the day before and it takes a couple of races to bring back tighter discipline?
What is the main cause for markets to change characteristics so frequently? Automation? Can never remember it being like that around 5/6 years ago, or maybe I was just oblivious to it as I was just starting outDerek27 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:11 amI always drop stakes on the first race of any meeting to see if it's trading any differently than normal. Markets vary from day to day, meeting to meeting and yes, I've been caught out a few times on the first races.Osstrader wrote: ↑Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:33 amIt's not affecting me mentally, or holding me back in any way, it's just neutral, but, nevertheless, I can't seem to nip this pesky habit in the bud...
I'll see how it plays out, but I think I might have to drop stakes for the first few races of the day, which doesn't sit well. Maybe it should sit well. I don't know...