Betfair chart / Betfair graph of the day
When you were young you learnt to cross roads by using your judgement of a car's speed and distance. You didn't need to measure the car's speed, distance, and look at historical data to decide on the probability of impact.
Calculating the number of horses that drift from 6/1 to 12/1 and win may be useful to somebody planning automation, but it wouldn't be of any use to a punter - they take a lot of other information into consideration and judge each case on its merits.
The real question is, is a horse that's value at 6/1 still value at 12/1 after taking into account whatever (possibly nothing) caused the drift. A blanket statistical analysis would include a lot of horses that weren't value at 6/1 and give inaccurate results.
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stueytrader
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I think the bit that confuses me in betting markets is why the general view suddenly shifts so much - e.g. a horse that was reliably being considered a 6/1 shot (by both layers and backers), then becoming a 12/1 shot by both sides. That still puzzles me, especially when it wins.
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ShaunWhite
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I hear what you're saying Derek but the big drifters that win stick in the memory more than those that drift like a barge and lose. Unusual things stay in your consciousness longer. This forum is full of attachments like that and I don't blame Simon for being cynical.
It's even more confusing when it gets backed back down to 6/1 in less than two minutes!stueytrader wrote: ↑Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:11 pmI think the bit that confuses me in betting markets is why the general view suddenly shifts so much - e.g. a horse that was reliably being considered a 6/1 shot (by both layers and backers), then becoming a 12/1 shot by both sides. That still puzzles me, especially when it wins.
I can see why it might happen. A small drift to set the wheels in motion, traders who backed it desperate to close trade plus other traders opening a trade expecting it to continue to drift and jumping onto the bandwagon. If the horse is fancied, eventually punters will jump in when they see outstanding value.
Managed to get on both the favourite steaming & the drift on the third favourite, I think I’m coming around to the idea that if one is able to gauge a steamer one could actually make a living on just getting on steamers.
EDIT: The drifter wins the race.
wins at low of 1.15, and at the second race at Nott the fav touches only 1.05 inplay. Either not many aggressive 'on course' traders or bf suspended inplay race too soon
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spreadbetting
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Does it also mystify you when horses get backed off the boards, steam in and lose?stueytrader wrote: ↑Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:55 pmAlways been the type that mystify me the most in all of trading and betting...those that drift like a barge then go on to win them. Never got it, prob never will.
