Dublin_Flyer wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2016 4:55 am
Morning all,
A recent post or automation by the legend Dallas got me thinking.
The draw bias on the drawbias website only includes 3yo+ handicaps from the past year or so, however if a draw bias exists on tracks, the bias will apply to all age groups, and all grades of races. A 2yo in a nursery drawn 8 faces the same bias as a 10yo handicapper drawn 8 on the same track over the same distance if a bias exists.
So I did some number crunching to see how it turns out on Kempton AW as they have a regular 5, 6 and 7f run, then compared smaller fields against bigger fields i.e. 6 runners or less v 7 or more.
I used 50 races as a minimum for my views.
All runners Kemp 5f: 1,2,6 bias confirmed in my opinion
All runners Kemp 6f: 1,2,3 bias confirmed in my opinion
All runners Kemp 7f: More of a spread but low drawn is definitely confirmed
Distances:
5f - 6 or less runners: Definite bias against stall 1
5f – 7 or more runners: Definite bias towards stalls 1,2,6
6f – 6 or less runners: 1,2,3 bias, 7 has a good rate though although under 50 race limit.
6f – 7 or more runners: Descending rates from 1 downwards, 6 does break the trend though.
7f – 6 or less runners: Definite bias against stall 1 compared to 2,3,4 and 5
7f – 7 or more runners: Stall 7 or less has a slight advantage, but the winners spread is huge, lower draw is definitely an advantage.
To conclude, low draw bias at Kempton on sprints seems pretty much confirmed in my view.