The Psychoff blog has inspired me to get more involved with Football, especially as the World cup is approacing..where the liquidity will be enormous...I'm going to slowly build my own model over the next moth or so and see if I can produce an edge..
BA - Can you please provide an indication of the accuracy of Soccer Mystic (SM) whilst in play (Emphasis on "In-play")?? For Example; If I were trading the under 2.5 goals and a goal was scored, how accurate would SM predict the new odds just prior to the goal? (I understand that there will be some tolerance. I just need a rough idea; ie is it +- 1%, 2%, 5% etc...As my dad used to say "A good guess is better than a bad measure!" So dont be shy!
I need to have an approx idea of the accuracy so that I can build safety measures into my spreadsheets etc..even if it is +-10% or higher; thats ok as long as I know at the outset...
So would welcome the views of BA and/or anyone else
Thank you
Regards
Peter
Soccer Mystic - Accuracy...
At the moment the match odds draw tends to be adrift a little, which affects the other odds. But if you look at the African nations cup and cup competitions in general the draw is priced differently to 'normal' matches. Unfortunately when you get a one fits all model that tends to be the problem. The model for over / under's is pretty accurate though as this stat is fairly consistant whatever match you are looking at.
Bear in mind that if a match starts and the the away team have 15 shots to 0 in the first half an hour then the market will likely re-appraise the stats somewhat. So always consider that what actually occurs has a pretty significant effect inplay.
Recommended use for the software is to look at what if scenario's and to model situations that could occur and what you will do about them at that point. It saves having to sit through thousands of markets to try and learn roughly how the odds move.
Bear in mind that if a match starts and the the away team have 15 shots to 0 in the first half an hour then the market will likely re-appraise the stats somewhat. So always consider that what actually occurs has a pretty significant effect inplay.
Recommended use for the software is to look at what if scenario's and to model situations that could occur and what you will do about them at that point. It saves having to sit through thousands of markets to try and learn roughly how the odds move.
Over & Under 2.5 is very accurate on soccer mystic.
The match odds are not so reliable, but this is due to so many differing factors that cannot be incorporated into a module
e.g. A player getting sent off, or a team loses a key player through injury
The match odds are not so reliable, but this is due to so many differing factors that cannot be incorporated into a module
e.g. A player getting sent off, or a team loses a key player through injury
Thanks for that guys. Thats good enough for me.
I intend trading all the under/overs (1.5; 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 etc) simultaneous via guardian...coupled with some form of hedging on the correct score and/or match odds...
Got a full days traveling tomorrow so will take the laptop and get busy with Excel on route!
Traded five games in January (has/will always take the back seat to Horse racing though..)...and after the first three (premiership) thought..."This is fairy easy..."...then was brought back to earth with a bump yesterday as I lost 30% of what I had made, on the Bolgna v Cagliari, Gijon v Getafe matches...Lesson Learned about liquidity!...I guess I have to pay for another "Appenticeship" on the football markets!
...Never really touched the football market...so from a standing start..will see how I get on over the next couple of months...
Thanks
Peter
I intend trading all the under/overs (1.5; 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 etc) simultaneous via guardian...coupled with some form of hedging on the correct score and/or match odds...
Got a full days traveling tomorrow so will take the laptop and get busy with Excel on route!
Traded five games in January (has/will always take the back seat to Horse racing though..)...and after the first three (premiership) thought..."This is fairy easy..."...then was brought back to earth with a bump yesterday as I lost 30% of what I had made, on the Bolgna v Cagliari, Gijon v Getafe matches...Lesson Learned about liquidity!...I guess I have to pay for another "Appenticeship" on the football markets!
...Never really touched the football market...so from a standing start..will see how I get on over the next couple of months...
Thanks
Peter