Bit premature?
https://www.tottenhamhotspur.com/news/2 ... rade-plan/
Today's Football
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Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
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Great 3 way scrap going on right now in Serie A for the 2 remaining champions league spots... shame there isnt some kind of Top 4 market on Betfair 
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firlandsfarm
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I don't bet football so sorry it this is a silly question but wouldn't that it is a neutral ground make the stats a little unsafe?
I'm used to seeing the heavy money on the favourite, why would it be on the draw when that's the 'outsider'?
Firlands, it`s a view on Premier League teams (as they are) that has the home team (why Chelsea and not Arsenal) odds = x and a count of the actual results consolidated to the BF format to enable comparison between the two.
Was looking for potential value in the first instance but notice BF regularly offer odds fractionally lower than the estimate the stats throw up on the selections they consider to be more likely.
The 2.19 was the stats estimate of the Home odds at that time with BF offering higher odds (value) of 2.26 hence my wondering if they would lower during the day.
The Bookies in Flashscores have lowered the odds to a range of 2.15 to mainly 2.2 so the stats would throw up different results now anyway.
Was looking for potential value in the first instance but notice BF regularly offer odds fractionally lower than the estimate the stats throw up on the selections they consider to be more likely.
The 2.19 was the stats estimate of the Home odds at that time with BF offering higher odds (value) of 2.26 hence my wondering if they would lower during the day.
The Bookies in Flashscores have lowered the odds to a range of 2.15 to mainly 2.2 so the stats would throw up different results now anyway.
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firlandsfarm
- Posts: 2720
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
Thanks Atho, I got that … but it includes home advantage/away disadvantage in the figs whereas in reality neither team has a home advantage nor an away disadvantage so the stats need a little adjustment to reflect that. Chelsea are deemed to be the home team because of a 'draw' that was made before the semi-finals and the winner of the Chelsea/Frankfurt game was 'awarded' Home team status i.e. If there was a clash of colours then Arsenal as the 'deemed' away team would have had to use their away strip and I assume Chelsea get the home team dressing room.
